NIDA and Suan Dusit Polls show political problems for the government over the ICJ decision
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NIDA and Suan Dusit Polls show political problems for the government over the ICJ decision

BP has found two polls about the ICJ (or in colloquial terms the “World Court”) decision regarding Preah Vihear which will start to be read about 4pm Thailand time.

Suan Dusit poll surveyed (PDF) 1,477 people throughout the country between October 15-19.

Q1: Preparations by Thais in relation to the World Court making a decision about Preah Vihear on November 11
A. No matter what the decision; should accept and respect the decision of the World Cup, 46.23%
B. If the decision is not as expected or good for Thailand then [we] need to tum jai to some extent
C. To provide moral support and pray that the country wins the case, 16.98%
D. Follow and listen to the news and analysis of this case all the time, 13.21%

NOTE: Not really sure the best way to translate tum jai; it has a meaning related to the heart and emotions and coming to terms with what happened.

BP: If (A) is true then it doesn’t matter about the decision if most will accept, but the high number for A may be because of the answers in Q2.

Q2. How do you think the Preah Vihear decision will turn out?
A. Likely to be beneficial to both sides, 66.5%
B. Likely to be good for the Thai side, 17.74%
C. Likely to be good for Cambodia, 15.76%

BP: If Thailand was to actually lose, will this change the views of those in Q1? It seems very positive and also at odds with the NIDA poll below.

Q3. What are you concerned about in relation to the World Court releasing the decision about Preah Vihear on November 11?
A. Safety of the people in the area because there may be serious incidents or clashes, 33.9%
B. Afraid that Thailand will lose out, will not receive fairness and lose territory to Cambodia, 29.66%
C. Will affect international relations especially businesses, border trade, and investment, 20.34%
D. Will become political issue, political attacks, and people will come out to protest, 16.10%

Q4. Confidence of the people about the World Court

A. Somewhat confident, 49.51%
B. Not so confident, 24.76%
C. Very confident, 15.54%
D. Not confident, 10.19%

BP: Again, if the result is negative, will these views remain the same…

Q5. Where Thailand has dispute with Cambodia at this time, it will cause the people to be more patriotic or not?
A. Yes, 80.3%
B. No, 19.7

BP: This is the problem for the government as you could really see a very nationalistic campaign being launched. The PAD have already announced they will not respect (accept?) the ICJ decision and it seems they will step up their campaign tonight…

NIDA Poll surveyed 1,253 people throughout the country between October 31-November 1:

Q1. What do you think is the tenor/direction of how the World Court will make a decision regarding Preah Vihear?
A. The World Court will rule that that they have no jurisdiction to make a decision and say that Thailand and Cambodia have to solve the problems themselves, 19.87%
B. The World Court will rule in accordance with what Cambodia requested which will result in Thailand having to lose 4.6 sq km of territory, 19.72%
C. The World Court will rule in accordance with what Thailand requested which will result in territory around Preah Vihear becoming Thai, 18.52%
D. The World Court will not rule in accordance with either the Thai or Cambodian requests, 17.8%
E. The World Court will rule in another way, such as for both sides to look after the area in conflict, 3.19%
F. Unsure, don’t know, 20.83%

BP: People who really much more optimistic about the Thai side than BP is. BP would group D and E together and am split between the combined D and E and B (although it may not be all of the 4.6 sq km) as being the likely outcomes, but hard to see that the decision will be positive for Thailand which is seemingly what the protest leaders also think as otherwise there would be no need to protest today if they anticipated a positive decision…

Q2. If the World Court issues a ruling which is benefit to Thailand, how do you think the Cambodian side will respond?
A. [They] will not comply with the decision of the World Court and will look for alternative way in order to prevent loss of territory, 60.02%
B. Completely comply with the decision of the World Court, 34.64%
C. Unsure, don’t know, 5.35%

BP: Well if (A) does  happen – and despite Hun Sen’s statements that the Cambodian side will accept – then Thailand will finally have the moral high ground on Preah Vihear….

Q3. If the World Court issues a ruling which is benefit to Cambodia, how do you think the Thai side will respond?
A. [We] will not comply with the decision of the World Court and will look for alternative way in order to prevent loss of territory, 54.91%
B. Completely comply with the decision of the World Court, 37.75%
B. Must reply on diplomatic protocols in order to keep relations with Cambodia, .56%
D. Unsure, don’t know, 6.78%

BP: Not sure about (A) because if Thailand actually loses then unless Thailand has something of benefit to offer Hun Sen, it would be impossible politically for him to give in.

Q4. On the Preah Vihear case, what is your position?
A. Will not accept loss of territory even though Thailand and Cambodia will have conflict together in the future, 52.35%
B. Accept the decision of the World Court if it results in loss of territory in order to maintain good relations between Thailand and Cambodia, 25.14%
C. Should join together to administer the area in conflict, thinking about the benefits of both sides as being the main goal, 3.03%
D. No position, don’t know, unsure, 19.47%

BP: This differs greatly from the Suan Dusit poll, but this could be more people see a more negative decision in the Nida Poll so are less likely to accept the decision.

Q5 What do you think is the issue that will cause the Yingluck government to become unstable?
A. The revised Amnesty Bill, 64.01%
B. Revealing details/information on the losses of the rice pledging scheme causes losses of 400 billion baht, 9.42%
C. No issue could make the Yingluck government unstable, 6.7%
D. The Preah Vihear decision by the World Court, 5.83%
E. Others, 3.43%
F. Not sure/don’t know, 10.61%

BP: Hence, why the government has been desperate over the last 3-4 days to remove (A) from being a problem (if only some people had thought of this difficult before ramming it through…). Actually think that Preah Vihear is a very explosive issue, but we will see what position the Democrats take tonight on this and what te other protest groups do… It will be an interesting night…