BP has blogged an introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race, a post 3 weeks ago looking at the NIDA polls, another post 3 weeks ago looking at Bangkok University and ABAC polls, a post two weeks ago looking at a NIDA Poll and ABAC Poll, a post two weeks looking at the latest Bangkok University and Suan Dusit polls, and a post last week looking at a Baan Somdej polls.
This post will look at the last two ABAC Polls and the last two NIDA Polls.
Below is the last two NIDA polls plotted on a chart together with the 5 previous polls:
- NIDA Poll (Dec 20-21) that surveyed 1,254 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll(Dec 25-26) that surveyed 557 people in 7 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Dec 25-Jan 4) that surveyed 3,356 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll(Jan 17-19) that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Jan 23-26) that surveyed 1,503 pople in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Feb 5-6)that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts; and
- NIDA Poll (Feb 12-13)that surveyed 1,500 pople in all 50 Districts;
BP: So on the raw numbers Sukhumbhand has stopped his decline and is now 2.13 points behind Pongsapat. Like with ABAC, Pongsapat is still increasing his total though. Undecideds are now well below 50%.
BP has also created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly as shown below:
NOTE: Of course, this is assuming those in the “undecided” category will vote for candidates in the same proportion as those who have already made up their mind. However, in support of the general accuracy of this assumption is the reality that voter turn-out is unlikely to exceed 60%. Hence, many of the undecideds are likely to be those who won’t vote. In addition, you can take the above as reflecting voter intentions as of the time period of the poll in a more readable way. How the undecideds will vote will also depend on future events so it is hard to know for certain so weighting in another way would be pointless.
BP: It was almost 9 points in Jan 23-26, but just under 3 points on Feb 5-6. Now, a 3.9 point lead for Pongsapat.
The ABAC Polls have been plotted below on a chart together with the 3 previous polls:
- ABAC Poll that that surveyed 1,112 people in Bangkok between December 10-15;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,766 people between January 22-23;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,673 people between January 31-February 2;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 2,518 people between January 31-February 6;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 3,631 people between February 8-12
BP: So Sukhumbhand has narrowed the gap to 6.3 points. Having said that Pongsapat has also increased his total. Will we see a further narrowing in the next poll?
There is also another ABAC Poll that surveyed 3,631 people between February 8-13 which asked a few different questions.
1. What candidates and their policies do you know? (top 5 only)
Sukhumbhand Paripatra (Dem), 93.2%
Pongsapat Pongcharoen (PT), 91.9%
Seripisut Temiyavet (Ind), 74.4%
Kosit Sivinitjit (Ind), 40.1%
Suharit Siamwalla (Ind), 16%
2. How certain are you that you will vote?
A. Definitely go, 50.6%
B. Unsure/definitely won’t go, 49.4%
3. For those who are definitely sure you will go or unsure that you will go, who will you vote for?
BP: This seems to be a problem for Sukhumbhand particularly as he needs to close the gap. Essentially, more Pongsapat voters are committed to vote than Sukhumbhand voters . This enthusiasm gap is important for turn-out. Sukhumbhand needs to motivate those voters.
4. Will you change your mind by election day?
BP: Again for Sukhumbhand this makes it difficult for him to catch up to Pongsapat.
5. How did you vote in the last election and who will you vote for this time?
BP: So for those who voted for Sukhumbhand last time, 22% will vote for Pongsapat this time. Sukukhband only retains two-thirds of voters who voted for him last time whereas Pongsapat gets just under 80% of voters who voted for Yuranan (the Puea Thai candidate in the 2009 election). Interestingly, those who voted for other candidates in 2009 go overwhelming for Pongsapat (57.4%) vs only 12.4% who are voting for Sukhumbhand.
Overall, Sukhumbhand has closed the gap, but Pongsapat still has a somewhat comfortable lead. Sukhumbhand still has plenty of work ahead of him. If he can get Pongsapat’s lead to less than 5 points then he has a reasonable chance.