BP blogged an introductory post last week looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race and yesterday a post looking at the NIDA polls. This post will look at Bangkok University and ABAC polls.
BP: Since the candidates of both the major parties have been finalized Pongsapat’s lead has grown. The race is still tight though with only 4% separating the main two candidates.
ABAC don’t have any undecided voters, but this could simply be because they don’t give an “undecided” option so you essentially get “leaners”/those who are less committed to vote for a certain candidate included as well.
Below are some charts of these polls:
BP: Like with the ABAC Poll, Pongsapat’s number shot up dramatically once he officially became the PT candidate, but not all those who said they would vote for Sudarat then switch their votes to him. Sukhumbhand’s numbers actually dropped with a massive increase in those who are “undecided”.
Hence, BP has created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly:
NOTE: Of course, this is assuming those in the ”undecided” category will vote for candidates in the same proportion as those who have already made up their mind. However, in support of the general accuracy of this assumption is the reality that voter turn-out is unlikely to exceed 60%. Hence, many of the undecideds are likely to be those who won’t vote. In addition, you can take the above as reflecting voter intentions as of the time period of the poll in a more readable way. How the undecideds will vote will also depend on future events so it is hard to know for certain so weighting in another way would be pointless.
BP: Some comments:
1. Like with the NIDA Poll, a large number of undecided voters
2. Still very close with less than 1% in it.
3. Again minor parties unlikely to exceed 20% with it being a battle between PT and the Democrats.
4. Both the ABAC and Bangkok University Polls show why Sukhumbhand was chosen over Korn . If Sukhumbhand wasn’t chosen by the Democrats and then had run as an independent, it would have set the stage now for Sukhumbhand to act as a spoiler and to almost certainly ensure a PT victory.