Every month Suan Dusit conducts a political index survey. The benefit of the Suan Dusit political index is that it is (1) nationwide, (2) a large sample size for the survey (5,490 for December), and (3) they ask the same questions each month and this makes it easier to provide a point of comparison.
BP’s plan is to blog the survey results each month – October 2011 and November 2011 posts. The survey from December was conducted between December 25-31 (yes, yes, BP has been busy so there has been delay in blogging it). BP has compared the December results with the first four months of Yingluck’s government and the final 4 surveys that BP can find for the Abhisit government so we have a point of comparison (note BP can’t find the surveys for the months of May, June, and July although this could be that Suan Dusit diverted their surveys to election surveys). The points are out of 10:
1. On Yingluck, as BP noted in mid-November after Yingluck’s rating had dropped:
If things get better in about 7-14 days then Yingluck will likely get a bounce back. As per the Suan Dusit poll, people have lost confidence that Yingluck as she is unable to solve the flooding, but if in 2 weeks the flooding starts to recede rapidly then well the flooding problem is being solved. Of course, this doesn’t mean Yingluck has waved a magic wand and made it happen, but if things are better then it doesn’t matter. Nevertheless, after the flooding is over, Yingluck’s numbers will likely still be far short of her post-election high and her approval rating from then on will depend on her and her government’s performance during the recovery and rehabilitation phase.
BP: The December results shows a continued restoration of her rating although it is still way below her pre-flood rating. Will it continue to improve? Possibly, although January so far has not been the best month for the government with negative press, but it is policies and performance which are more determinative.
2. The ratings for the government have also increased, but so has the ratings for the opposition. Everyone was actually hurt by the floods, but all are recovering.