Bangkok Uni poll on Yingluck govt’s performance
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Bangkok Uni poll on Yingluck govt’s performance

Bangkok University surveyed 1,168 people throughout the country between November 3-7.*

1. Score showing satisfaction over performance of Prime Minister Yingluck who received 4.98 out of 10. When compared with former Prime Minister Abhisit (survey of December 2010), he came out ahead by .19 points.

Working hard to solve the country’s problems (ความขยันทุ่มเทในการทำงานเพื่อแก้ปัญหาของประเทศ)
– 0.35
Honesty/morality (ความซื่อสัตย์สุจริต)
– 0.28
Protecting the interests of the country (การรักษาผลประโยชน์ส่วนรวมของ
– 0.14
Ability to achieve results or new projects (ความสามารถสร้างสรรค์ผลงานหรือ
– 0.06
Ability in managing as per the authority you have (ความสามารถในการบริหารจัดการตามอำนาจหน้าที่ ที่มี)
– 0.33
Decisiveness (ความเด็ดขาด กล้าตัดสินใจ)
+ 0.03
Total (คะแนนเฉลี่ย)
– 0.19

2. Score showing satisfaction over the work of the Yingluck government who received 4.78 out of 10. When compared with the Abhisit government who received 4.61 [ in December 2010 ] (คะแนนความพึงพอใจผลงาน 3 เดือน ของรัฐบาลนางสาวยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร พบว่าได้คะแนน เฉลี่ย 4.78 คะแนนจากคะแนนเต็ม 10 คะแนน ทั้งนี้ เมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับคะแนนเฉลี่ยของ รัฐบาลนายอภิสิทธิ์ เวชชาชีวะ พบว่า มีคะแนนเฉลี่ยมากกว่า 0.17 คะแนน)

International affairs ด้านการต่างประเทศ
+ 0.65
National security (ด้านความมั่นคงของประเทศ)
+ 0.38
Social and quality of life (ด้านสังคมและคุณภาพชีวิต)
– 0.24
Management and enforcement of the law (ด้านการบริหารจัดการและการบังคับ
+ 0.24
Economic affairs (ด้านเศรษฐกิจ)
– 0.19
Total (คะแนนเฉลี่ย)
+ 0.17

3. Score out of 10 showing satisfaction in regards to the work of the main party in the government, coalition parties, main opposition party, and minor opposition parties (คะแนนความพึงพอใจต่อการทำงานของพรรคแกนนำรัฐบาล พรรคร่วมรัฐบาล พรรคแกนนำ ฝ่ายค้านและพรรคร่วมฝ่ายค้าน (จากคะแนนเต็ม 10 คะแนน))

Main party in government (พรรคแกนนำรัฐบาล)
Puea Thai ( พรรคเพื่อไทย )
Main opposition party (พรรคแกนนำฝ่ายค้าน)
Democrats ( พรรคประชาธิปัตย์ )
Government coalition parties (พรรคร่วมรัฐบาล)
Chat Thai Pattana, Palang Chon, Chat Pattana Puea Paendin, Mahachol ( พรรคชาติไทยพัฒนา พรรคพลังชล พรรคชาติพัฒนาเพื่อแผ่นดิน
พรรคมหาชน )
Other opposition parties (พรรคร่วมฝ่ายค้าน)
Bhum Jai Thai, Rak Prathet Thai, Rak Santi, Mathabhum( พรรคภูมิใจไทย พรรครักประเทศไทย พรรครักษ์สันติ พรรคมาตุภูมิ )

4. Confidence in the government in helping those affected by the floods (ความเชื่อมั่นต่อรัฐบาล ในการช่วยเหลือเยียวยาผู้ประสบภัยหลังน้ำท่วม พบว่า)

A lot and very much (ค่อนข้างมากถึงมากที่สุด)

Divided into “a lot”, 40.4%, and 15.4% for “very much” (โดยแบ่งเป็นค่อนข้างมากร้อยละ 40.4 และมากที่สุด 15.4)
A little and very little (ค่อนข้างน้อยถึงน้อยที่สุด)

Divided into “a little”,30.9%, and very little 13.3% (โดยแบ่งเป็นค่อนข้างน้อยร้อยละ 30.9 และน้อยที่สุดร้อยละ 13.3)

BP: Politics is not a zero-sum game. Just because many people are unsatisfied with Yingluck and her government over the handling of the floods, it doesn’t mean that they are happy/happier with the Democrats (have another post to finish on poll questions which rate satisfaction between the BMA and the government). This poll allows us to directly compare Abhisit with Yingluck as the wording is the same which is bizarrely unusual for Thai polls  (Abhisit scored 5.17 after 3 months in office as well, per a Bangkok University poll).

While Abhisit gets a higher score than Yingluck, it is not significantly different that she pales in comparison. Much has been made about Yingluck’s lack of decisiveness, but she still rates better than Abhisit on this question. Nevertheless, Yingluck’s rating has been hurt because of the flooding – particularly over the government’s management of the crisis. If her ratings continue to drop she has reason to worry because during the election campaign her popularity was significantly higher than that of Puea Thai, but this gap has closed during the flooding crisis. However, based on the latest poll, she still rates higher than the government as a whole, higher than Puea Thai, and any of the other political parties. BP would be very surprised if Puea Thai were to replace her as prime minister. The only way for Yingluck to leave would be if she voluntarily resigned, but she has stated that she won’t do so and there is no indication that she would. There is also no specific person waiting in the wings either (sorry Chalerm).

In addition, the Yingluck government rates higher with 4.78 than the Abhisit government did in December 2010 which received 4.61 (and higher than any Abhisit government did throughout its term). The economic aspect will be key particularly in regards to the recovery package and it is here where the government will need to lift its rating over time. It also needs to be taken into account that support for persons/governments is often because of their support base and many supporters will give high ratings to their favourite party no matter. The Democrats have a lower support base than Puea Thai, hence BP would argue that Puea Thai will need to be higher than Democrat governments in order to keep that higher support.

More than 55% still have confidence in the government in helping those affected by the floods (would have been interesting for a general question on the government’s handling of the floods so far and looking at ratings given to individual ministers directly, but alas there is no such question). Looking forward, Yingluck will very likely push on, there will be a cabinet reshuffle (if not soon then certainly in June/July 2012 (UPDATE: corrected from 2011) after the 5-year ban on the 111 Thai Rak Thai executives is lifted), and the government will enter a recovery mode. Tough questions still await Yingluck on how to manage the overall budget. Will any of the policies be delayed? What about the minimum wage increase scheduled for April 1, 2012? In one way, Yingluck has a reason to delay implementation given the floods have changed the financial situation, but on the other, for some policies with inflation still high and grumbling over the higher cost of goods, will minimum wage workers be happy if the increase is delayed further? For other policies, will Puea Thai voters be happy that so many policies promised are delayed? Bizarrely enough, though the government may lose very little money on the rice pledging scheme as international rice prices have been trending higher given the damage to rice paddies in Thailand and elsewhere. Expect to see much discussion between business groups and the government about compensation after the flood water has clearly receded across the country. We will then get into the battle of dividing up the pie and who gets what.

Btw, you will see that everyone gets low scores, but this is also a tradition of Bangkok University polls where high ratings are rare. For example, the Abhisit government scored 4.06 after 6 months, 3.87 after 12 months, and 3.79 after 18 months (BU).

* Survey methodology:

By gender: 49.1% women and 50.9% men

By age:
* those aged 18-25 (19.2%),
* those aged 26-35 (27.5%),
* those aged 36-45 (27.5%),
* those aged 46+ (25.8%)

By education:
59.4% have less than a bachelor’s degree, 34.3% have a bachelor’s degree, 5.1% have an advanced degree, and 1.2% didn’t specify

By profession:
15.8% contractors, 24.4% are traders/self-employed, 23.1% work for private enterprises, 18.7% are civil servants/state enterprise employees, 7.1% are housewives/househusbands/retired, Others 10.9% didn’t specify a job/unemployed/students.

BP: Over emphasis on those under 45.