Analysis of the 2011 Thai Election : Part 1: Nationwide
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Analysis of the 2011 Thai Election : Part 1: Nationwide

Note: The timing of this post relates to the fact that sometime in the last 10 days the EC have finally published the full election results on their website in a single document and BP discovered them on the weekend. Yes, it is three months after the election, but have held off some analysis and particularly of exit polls and performance of pollsters until the full results are available. Now, they are, so will churn out a few posts with some details.

Below is a chart that BP has collated from figures which shows constituency seats by region, party-list seats, and totals:

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Source: Matichon

BP:Yes, yes, you have all seen the above, but it helps when looking at the breakdown

Then the party-list figures for all the parties on a nationwide basis:

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Source: Page 41 of this PDF – unfortunately, the EC have not provided the information in a spreadsheet like what they did last time so BP had to create the above. Will upload a spreadsheet with all the data and explanations on what page numbers the data comes from in a few days once BP has managed to tidy up the spreadsheet so it is presentable. This will initially be for party-list vote only, but then once have collated the data from the EC PDF on the constituency seat details will add those too.

Then, compared with 2007:

Party
Votes
Percentage
Seats
PPP
12,331,381
41.08%
34
Dems
12,138,960
40.44%
33
Puea Paendin
1,599,077
5.03%
7
Chat Thai
1,213,093
4.04%
4
Ruam Jai
740,501
2.47%
1
Pracharaj
408,797
1.36%
1

Source:  See this slightly modified spreadsheet (percentages added) from the EC website (original EC figures can be found in this large ZIP file with multiple spreadsheets)

Some comments:

1. The difference in 2007 between the pro-Thaksin PPP and the Democrats was 194,421; the difference in 2011 is 4,316,830. Remember that one of the reasons that the Democrats were pushing for the winner of the party vote to form the government and the change of the constitution to move from 80 party-list MPs to 125 party-list MPs as they viewed that while they wouldn’t win the most number of MPs, they may be able to beat Puea Thai on the party vote. As one can see this idea wouldn’t have worked out well….

2. Puea Thai won 3,421,089 more votes than PPP whereas the Democrats in 2011 did worse by 703,320 votes compared with the 2007 Democrats.

Next post: Breakdown by region including a comparison with 2007.

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