Live-blogging the Thai election 2011, by @bangkokpundit
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Live-blogging the Thai election 2011, by @bangkokpundit

9:20 p.m. Will end live blog post now and revert to individual posts with analysis of the result.

8:50 p.m. So Puea Thai 257 + Chart Thai Pattana 20 + Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 9 .

BP:  This is around 290 and then maybe Palangchon we are closer to 300….

8:45 p.m. Wayne Hay of Al Jazeera tweets “Reports indicate negotiations between Thaksin’s people, the army and others will continue into the night. Many details to be worked out.”

BP: The negotiations for the deal continue…

8:40 p.m. Via @ktnews “Spoilt ballots 1,759,790 (5.79%) leading ‘no vote’ 1,205,278 (3.97%)”

BP: So one can say the ‘no vote’ hasn’t well as expected – unsure whether this is for party vote or constituency vote.

8:30 p.m. From Voice TV Latest Vote Count (8:30). 83.93% counted:

Party
Con
PL
Total
Puea Thai
197
60
257
Dems
117
45
164
Bhum Jai Thai
31
5
35
Chart Thai Pattana
16
4
20
Chart Pattana Puea Paendin
7
2
9
Palangchon
6
1
7
Mathabhum 1
Rak Prathet Thai 4 4
Total 375 123 498

NOTE: Rak Santi also got on 1. Two party votes am unsure about.

BP: TNN just said 90% counted and 259 for Puea Thai, but haven’t seen actual breakdown. BUT wouldn’t be surprised if Puea Thai can get 260 as they are doing better on the party vote each time that it refreshes although EC website is not updating as of now so don’t have breakdown.

8:20 p.m. Academic Federico Ferrara tweets “Update: PT well ahead in 174 constituencies, slightly ahead in 28, slightly behind in 25”.

BP: They need a couple of dozen red cards now to have any chance, but even then Puea Thai may just win all the seats…

7:55 p.m. Yingluck thanks people on the 40 day campaign trail and how her and policies have been accepted. Yingluck also thanks Abhisit and the other parties for their conduct on the election campaign. Yingluck says that will follow through on policies as promised on election campaign. Yingluck says have already spoken to Chart Thai Pattana already (clear coalition between those two), but doesn’t mention other parties.

BP: The eel stays in government…

7:50 p.m. Yingluck about to speak soon.

7:45 p.m. Abhisit gracefully concedes defeat and congratulations Yingluck on becoming Thailand’s first female PM. He thanks those who voted for the Democrats. BUT then notes Puea Thai didn’t get 50% on party vote so says his party will oppose amnesty. He says that Democrats will be in opposition.

7:35 p.m: Thitinan in The Guardian:

Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak said that a margin of 80 to 100 seats should give Puea Thai an unassailable victory. If they won over 250 seats it would be a clear mandate, while more than 280 seats could be considered a landslide.

“If they win at all it’s a big statement,” he added. “[It means] the ideas and policies that made [Thaksin’s] original Thai Rak Thai party so electable are unstoppable and indestructible … This is a party that has been dissolved twice; its leading politicians have been banned twice; it’s being led by a deposed exile and former prime minister a six-hour flight away.”

He said that a landslide would be “not just any landslide – it would mean we have a truly new country. Whether people accept that will determine how much pain and grief we have to go through.”

BP: So far exactly 80, but more importantly Puea Thai have more than 250 so have a clear majority. Democrats got 165 in 2007. Can they beat that?

7:30 p.m. Yingluck will be speaking soon, but it is meant to be before 8p.m.

7:20 p.m. From Kom Chad Luek Latest Vote Count : With 70% counted

Party
Con
PL
Total
Puea Thai
198
56
254
Dems
116
48
164
Bhum Jai Thai
29
5
34
Chart Thai Pattana
17
4
21
Chart Pattana Puea Paendin
8
2
10
Palangchon
6
1
7
Mathabhum
Rak Prathet Thai
Total



BP:  They didn’t include the vote count for smaller parties on the graphic, but Rak Prathet Thai have 4 party list seats per ThaiPBS.

7:15 p.m. For party vote count so far, PT 11,003,940 (45.3%); Dems 9,272,599  (38.2%); BJT 9,272,599 (3.8%); Chuwit’s Prathet Thai 756,350 (3.1%); Chart Thai Pattana 718,140 (3%).

BP: Now approaching 2 mil difference or 7% in total. Chuwit leading Banharn….

6:45 p.m.  For party vote Puea Thai at 9,435,854 or 44.62% to Dems 8,202,133  or 38.78% out of 21,148,147 votes cast.

BP: This is increasing steadily so Puea Thai may get closer to winning 60 seats. Gap was 4% 90 minutes ago, but now closer to 6%

6:30 p.m. Puea Thai are doing slightly better after more votes are counted. After 9,249,061 votes were counted, Puea Thai  had received 4,030,541 votes (or  43.58%) compared with 3,701,899 (or 40.02%) for the Democrats. After 18,518,449 votes were counted, Puea Thai had received 8,201,284 votes (or 44.29%) compared with 7,237,777 (or 39.28%) for the Democrats.

BP: This happened in 2007 and PPP’s numbers improved slightly as the evening progressed.

6:15 p.m. ThaiPBS estimates 56 party list seats for Puea Thai, 49 for Democrats, 5 for Bhum Jai Thai, 4 for Chuwit’s Rak Prathet Thai, 4 for Chart Thai Pattana, 2 for Chart Pattana Puea Paendin, 1 Rak Santi, 1 Mathabhum, 1 Palangchon etc.

BP: Chuwit’s Rak Prathet Thai is getting more votes on party list than Chart Thai Pattana…..

6:05 p.m. Academic Federico Ferrara tweets that Thai Rath (UPDATE: Corrected to Thai Rath as Federico confirmed) expected Puea Thai  to win 89 seats in NE. By my calculations, it’s well ahead in 86, slightly ahead in 14, slightly behind in 15.

BP: You can follow more closely here and clicking on map of Northeast. Just checked now and so far overall, Puea Thai is leading in 99 seats.

6:00 p.m. ThaiPBS shows so far Puea Thai will get 250, Dems 166, BJT 38, CTP 21.

BP: Will Puea Thai get 251? Will the Democrats do better than 165 that they go in 2007?

5:20 p.m. Per EC website, for the party vote Puea Thai have 4,013,628 votes, Democrats 3,684,813, Bhum Jai Thai 372,716, Chart Thai Pattana voters, Rak Prathet Thai 268,958

BP: So less than 50% of total for Puea Thai, but better than 2007 where it was neck-and-neck with the Democrats. So Puea Thai 44%, Dems 40% of total party vote. Chuwit 3%, BJT 4%, CTP 3%

5:10 p.m. In the Northeast, Puea Thai are leading in more than 100. They will do slightly better than 2007 when you note the reduction in constituencies. That is even with Newin’s defection.

5:05 p.m. ThaiPBS based on total vote counting that Puea Thai will win 256, Democrats 165, Bhum Jai Thai 34, Chart Thai Pattana 18, Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 10, Palangchong 6

4:50 p.m. Thaksin was also interviewed on Channel 3, but only caught last 30 seconds and similar to ThaiPBS interview. Two sites to check the result, the official EC website and Voice TV (whose website is easier to navigate on who is winning as aside from getting a quick indication on who is leading):

BP: The Democrats are doing better in Bangkok compared to exit polls, but elsewhere basically according to the exit polls. Voice TV shows Puea Thai winning around 200 constituency seats, Democrats 114, Bhum Jai Thai 31 (ThaiPBS have same figures on TV). Together with party-list vote of around 60, Puea Thai have still won a majority.

4:20 p.m. Thaksin is being interviewed by ThaiPBS by phone. Thaksin says that large number of voter indicates people want reconciliation. He says PT campaigned on this specifically. Thaksin says he can forgive all. He says Yingluck will be the next PM. He says his advice to Yingluck, life will be difficult & (1)need reconciliation, (2) look at economic problems, and (3) meritocracy in civil service system.Thaksin says he wants to be solution and not be a problem if that means he return to Thailand & is a problem.

BP: Thaksin is not regularly interviewed on Thai TV, but if the exit polls are right then things have changed. Thaksin is clear he doesn’t need to come back immediately and can wait.

From the Sripathum Exit Poll:

Party
Con
PL
Total
Puea Thai
226
64
290
Dems
97
43
140
Bhum Jai Thai
25
6
31
Chart Thai Pattana
12
3
15
Chart Pattana Puea Paendin
2
0
2
Palangchon
9
2
11
Mathabhum
4
1
5
Rak Prathet Thai
0
4
2
Total
375
125
500

Palanchong also wins 2 constituency + 1 party list; Rak Santi 1 party-list

BP: Not sure what this one is different from Matichon….????

3:45 p.m. From ThaiPBS, their reporter at Bhum Jai Thai HQ says that Bhum Jai Thai executives are not there and that just spokesman. No press conference, but one senior party member spoke to ThaiPBS said the exit poll results was less than expected. However, he said that would wait for the result.

3:40 p.m. From Matichon, but also from what can see on TV:

ABAC Poll. Puea Thai 299, Democrats 128, Bhum Jai Thai 28, Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 14, Chart Thai Pattana 12, Palanchon 6, Rak Prathet Thai 4, Matabhum 3 (“เอแบคโพลล์”รายงานผลเอ็กซิทโพลว่าพรรคเพื่อไทยได้ส.ส.ทั้งหมด 299 คน พรรคประชาธิปัตย์ 132 คน พรรคภูมิใจไทย 28 คน พรรคชาติพัฒนาเพื่อแผ่นดิน 14 คน พรรคชาติไทยพัฒนา 12 คน พรรคพลังชล 6 คน พรรครักประเทศไทย 4 คน และพรรคมาตุภูมิ 3 คน). From this, Puea Thai won 234 constituency seats + 65 party-list seats, Democrats won 92 constituency seats + 40 party-list seats (สำหรับพรรคเพื่อไทยนั้นได้ส.ส.เขต 234 คน บัญชีรายชื่อ 65 คน รวม 299 คน ส่วนพรรคประชาธิปัตย์ ส.ส.เขต 92 คน บัญชีรายชื่อ 40 คน)

Sripathum exit poll. Puea Thai 279 seats, Democrats 146, Bhum Jai Thai 33, Chart Thai Pattana 15, Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 11, Rak Prathet Thai 4, Mathabhum 4, Palanagchon 3, Rak Santi 1 (ส่วน ผลเอ็กซิทโพลการเลือกตั้งสมาชิกสภาผู้แทนราษฎร ของศรีปทุมโพล พบว่า พรรคเพื่อไทยจะได้ส.ส.ทั้งหมด 279 ที่นั่ง พรรคประชาธิปัตย์ 146 เสียง พรรคภูมิใจไทย 33 เสียง พรรคชาติไทยพัฒนา 15 เสียง พรรคชาติพัฒนาแผ่นดิน 11 เสียง พรรครักประเทศไทย 4 เสียง พรรคมาตุภูมิ 4 เสียง พรรคพลังชล 3 เสียง และพรรครักษ์สันติ 1 เสียง).

BP: A total landslide.

3:30 p.m. From Matichon, the Suan Dusit Exit Poll breakdown for the constituency vote:

SDconsexit

BP: We will have to see the actual results for the actual distribution, but again if the exit polls are correct it is a total landslide. We shall know in one hour.

3:15 p.m. From Matichon, the Suan Dusit Exit Poll

Party
Con
PL
Total
Puea Thai
247
66
313
Dems
107
45
152
Bhum Jai Thai
9
4
13
Chart Thai Pattana
8
2
10
Chart Pattana Puea Paendin
2
0
2
Palangchon
4
1
5
Mathabhum
2
0
2
Rak Prathet Thai
3
0
2
Total
375
125
500

Rak Santi also have 1.

BP: Stunning result

3:10 p.m. All exit polls show Puea Thai winning a landslide. More details to come

2:10 p.m. The Guardian has these interesting quotes:

Jon Ungpakhorn, an activist and former senator, warned last week: “There is a clear danger of violence on a scale closer to civil war if either side is provoked by extreme measures – for example, if a Puea Thai election victory were to be derailed by a legal judgment or military coup, or if a Puea Thai government were to swiftly facilitate the return of a defiant Thaksin Shinawatra by means of amnesty and pardon.”

Finance minister Korn Chatikavanij suggested on Friday that the election was in itself a sign of progress.

“A year ago we were on the verge of civil war,” he said.

“Tonight there are two major rallies in two corners of Bangkok by the two major parties. We have every reason to be optimistic.”

BP: You can click the link to read Jon’s column too…

2:00 p.m. Saksith of Siam Voice is live-blogging the election here; also check out New Mandala.

1:50 p.m. The Nation tweets “The voter turnout is higher than expected in the capital by midday and there is no balloting violations reported: Bangkok EC chief”

BP: Turn-out in 2007 was 74.5% so, what about this time?

1:30 p.m. One problem that many voters are facing is a change of electoral regulations means that 500,000 are being disenfranchised. The Bangkok Post:

As many as 500,000 eligible voters have lost their right to vote because of a misunderstanding and the Election Commission’s poor public relations, the People’s Network for Election in Thailand said on Tuesday.

Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, a Pnet committee member, said they were those who registered to vote in advance outside their constituencies in the last election but had not withdrawn their names from the list of advance voters, not knowing that they were required to do so by an EC regulation.

They wrongly believed that their names would be automatically put back in the lists of eligible voters in their home constituencies after the 2007 election and did not go for the advance voting on June 26

BP:  If you registered to voted in advance outside your constituency in 2007, you MUST notify the EC in advance FOR THIS ELECTION before voting otherwise you will not be able to vote in your constituency. This is not targeted at a specific group – ie Matichon reports that PAD leader Chamlong wasn’t able to vote as when he turned up he registered to vote in Kanchanaburi in 2007 and didn’t notify the EC of a change this time – and it is a change of what has happened in the past where you specifically didn’t have to notify and you just reverted to the position of being registered to vote in your constituency.

The polls close at 3pm and there are legal restrictions – see this explanation here – on what can be blogged about until then, but will try to catch up on some op-eds and articles that BP would like to point out and will do so in this live-blog post.

First on Thailand’s electoral system. The Asia Foundation:

In addition, Thailand’s House of Representatives has 500 seats based on a mixed-member proportional representation system:  this means 375 representatives are directly elected based on constituencies, while 125 are elected from nation-wide party lists. On Sunday, voters will be asked to cast two ballots for Thailand’s House of Representatives: first to select their constituent representative; and second for the party lists. There are 40 registered parties, with a total of 3,735 candidates vying for 500 seats. 1,410 candidates are registered in the party list category, while 2,325 are competing for constituency votes.

BP: On when we know the result, it was earlier expected it would be about 9pm, but Matichon paraphrases the EC Chairman as saying that in his personal opinion it will be more likely around 5-6pm. We should have exit poll data just after 3pm.

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