In the lead-up to the July 3 election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows (from oldest to newest):
- The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%),
- Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call, and
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 43%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 3% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 47%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
- Poll of the Lower North showing how people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 23.2%, Democrats 22.2%, 4.5% for other parties, and 50.1% were undecided),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 22%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%) and party vote (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%),
- Nationwide Bangkok-only DPU Poll which shows that Puea Thai is leading in the constituency vote 47% to Dems 40% and party vote 47% to Dems 39%,
- a Bangkok University poll that showed that Puea Thai is leading 33.6% to 17.6% for the Democrats in Bangkok for the party vote,
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 52%, Democrats 34%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 35%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 33%) and party vote for (Puea Thai 36%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 32%), and
- ABAC poll of 28 provinces throughout Thailand which showed who people would cast their party vote for ( Puea Thai, 43.7%, 39.1%, Bhum Jai Thai 6.6%)
BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which will be included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate.
There is a new poll conducted by Mahasarakham University that surveyed 130 people in each of the 126 constituencies in the 20 provinces of the Northeast (Amnat Charoen, Bueng Kan, Buriram, Chaiyaphum, Kalasin, Khon Kaen, Loei, Maha Sarakham, Mukdahan, Nakhon Phanom, Nakhon Ratchasima, Nongbua Lamphu, Nong Khai, Roi Et, Sakon Nakhon, Sisaket, Surin, Ubon Ratchathani, Udon Thani, Yasothon). In total, 16,380 people were surveyed from June 17-22 (Khao Sod for the period of the survey).
The information is via a press release from the university together with information from the different newspapers. The information is not in the form of a question and answer, it is just the answers
1. On whether people will vote:
A. Yes, 93.5%
B. Unsure, 3.5%
BP: Of course, turnout won’t be 93.5% everywhere despite voting being compulsory.
2. On who they will vote for:
A. Puea Thai 64.3%
B. Democrats, 12.7%
C. Bhum Jai Thai, 8.1%
D. Vote No, 4.9%
E. Chat Pattana Puea Paendin, 3.2%
F. Chat Thai Pattana, 1.4%,
G. Rak Prathet Thai (Chuwit), 1.3%
H. New Aspiration Party, .6%
I. Rak Santi, .6%
J. Social Action Party, .5%
K. Mathubhum, .4%%
L. New Politics Party, .3%
BP: You actually need to take out the 4.9% for the ‘no vote’ when calculating how many seats will be won so for all the parties you would need to adjust upwards their totals by about 5%. This compares with the Suan Dusit poll which had Puea Thai 70%, Democrats 17%, Bhum Jai Thai 6%. The big difference is the higher ‘vote no’ total compared with the Suan Dusit poll.
3. On the number of constituencies each party will win:
A. Puea Thai, 107 seats,
B. Bhum Jai Thai, 10 seats,
C. Chat Pattana Puea Paendin, 5 seats,
D. Democrats, 3 seats, and
E. Chart Thai Pattana, 1 seat
Based on the answers, Puea Thai will win all constituency seats in 11 provinces, Bueng Kan, Maha Sarakham, Mukdahan, Yasothon, Roi Et, Loei, Sisaket, Nong Khai, Nongbua Lamphu, Amnat Charoen, and Udon Thani.
The 10 constituencies that Bhum Jai Thai will clearly win Buriram Constituency Nos. 2, 5, 9, it is close in 4; Nakhon Ratachasima 5 and 12; Surin 1 and 2; Kalasin 4; Chaiyaphum 1; Nakhon Phanom 2 (Khao Sod).
The 5 constituencies were Chat Pattana Puea Paendin will win are Khon Kaen 7, Nakhon Phanom 4, Nakhon Ratchasima 9 and 15; and Sakon Nakhon 4 (Khao Sod).
The 3 constituencies were the Democrats will win are Nakhon Ratchasima 8, Buriram 1, Ubon Ratchatahni 11 (Khao Sod).
Chat Thai Pattana will win Chaiyaphum 6 (Khao Sod).
Puea Thai will win more than 50% in all provinces except Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, and Ubon Ratchatahni (Khao Sod).
BP: Puea Thai are finishing the election strongly, but it is unclear from the information from the university press release whether those polled were asked which candidate they were asked to vote for as opposed to what party (BP thinks that Puea Thai as a party will be stronger in the Northeast than the constituency vote) so am a little unsure of how much weight to give to the answers. If Puea Thai wins 100 constituency seats in the Northeast, they will have easily won in excess of 250 seats nationwide so if this poll is accurate Puea Thai will be winning in a landslide.
The fun and games will continue….