In the lead-up to the July 3 election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows:
- The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%),
- Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call, and
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 43%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 3% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 47%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
- Poll of the Lower North showing how people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 23.2%, Democrats 22.2%, 4.5% for other parties, and 50.1% were undecided), and
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 22%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%) and party vote (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%)
BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which will be included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are no data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate.
Durakit Pundit University and the Nation Group conducted a poll surveying 8,616 eligible voters in 33 Bangkok constituencies between June 3 and 6. A copy of the poll in the form of a Word DOC can be found here. The poll shows Puea Thai leading in 18 constituencies, Democrats in 6, and too close to call in 9. Survey data methodology is at the end of this post.*
Q1. The poll found that 86% will vote, 9% are unsure whether they will vote, and 5% are sure they will not vote.
Q2. The poll found that 55% of those are decided and are sure of their decision (47%). 9% say there is a chance they may change their mind (16%). 31% are undecided (32%), and 5% will choose ‘no vote’ (5%).
BP: The totals for the May 23-25 DPU poll are in brackets above. As we can see the undecideds have barely changed, but those who are definitely going to vote are more likely to have made up their mind now…
Q3: On constituency and party votes for all 33 Bangkok constituencies.
NOTE: Yellow shading indicates who will. If no shading then it is undecided – as defined by the pollster which is within 5%. PT and Dem Diff = have much better the parties do on constituency vote compared with party vote (ie so if negative they do better in constituency vote. Ignore the total as the end for PT and Dem Diff.
BP: PT are leading are also leading in the party vote in Bangkok… Hmm….
Now, to compare the previous DPU survey with this one in relation to the constituency vote:
Note: Diff is how much better (if +) or worse if (-) a party is doing compared with May 23-25 vote.
BP: Although, their vote total has dropped slightly, the Democrats are now ahead in 6 seats, but in the 9 undecided seats PT are ahead in 7 of the 9. Some swings as those survey has increased significantly to over 8,000. This cannot be dismissed – there is another Bangkok poll which shows similar trends (that poll to come!).
More analysis soon.
Less than Bachelor’s degree 65%
Bachelor’s degree or more 35%
Civil servant/state enterprise workers 8%
Private sector employee 21%
Help with family business 4%