In the lead-up to the July 3 election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows:
- The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%),
- Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call, and
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 43%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 3% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 47%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
- Poll of the Lower North showing how people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 23.2%, Democrats 22.2%, 4.5% for other parties, and 50.1% were undecided), and
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 22%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%) and party vote (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%)
- Nationwide Bangkok-only DPU Poll which shows that Puea Thai is leading in the constituency vote 47% to Dems 40% and party vote 47% to Dems 39%.
BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which will be included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are no data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate.
Bangkok Poll surveyed 3,323 people between June 2-9. The poll includes survey data methodology, but well ran out of time to blog it.
1. Intention to use right to vote to elect MPs on July 3 ( ความตั้งใจไปใช้สิทธิ์เลือกตั้งสมาชิกสภาผู้แทนราษฎร (ส.ส.) ในวันที่ 3 กรกฎาคม พบว่า)
Yes, 94% (89.3% will choose to vote for someone; 4.7 will choose the ‘no vote’ option).
No, 2.7% (1.1% are bored of politics, .9% working/busy/in other province, .4% don’t vote as usual, .3% if vote don’t see that it helps)
2. Popularity/support of political parties in choosing party list MPs (top 3) (only of those who said they will vote) (คะแนนนิยมที่มีต่อพรรคการเมืองในการเลือก ส.ส. ในระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ (3 อันดับแรก) (ถามเฉพาะผู้ที่ระบุว่าจะไปเลือกตั้ง))
3. What is the basis for your choice for your party vote (โดยเกณฑ์ที่ใช้เลือกผู้สมัคร ส.ส. ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ)
Choose based on qualifications and past achievements of those on the party list, 44.9%
Choose based on policies of party, 39.5%
Choose based on fame of party, 15.6%
BP: In case you are wondering about the 7.8+2.4 not equalling the -7.9. This is because of the smaller parties and that the May 20-22 poll included the 3.9% of those who won’t choose anyone whereas this time they are excluded as they are included in Q1. Undecideds are still a little high – have another post about this point to come and one reason why Democrats maybe doing slightly worse in polls compared with reality (short hint: enthusiasm factor and unwillingness to admit they will vote Democrat)- although it is declining. The Democrats are not going to score 17.6% in Bangkok. It is likely closer to 40% if they do badly, but they can’t form a government only picking up 40% of the party vote in Bangkok.
4. Popularity/support of political parties in choosing constituency MPs (top 3) (only of those who said they will vote) (คะแนนนิยมที่มีต่อพรรคการเมืองในการเลือก ส.ส. ในระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ (3 อันดับแรก) (ถามเฉพาะผู้ที่ระบุว่าจะไปเลือกตั้ง))
5. What is the basis for your choice for your constituency vote (โดยเกณฑ์ที่ใช้เลือกผู้สมัคร ส.ส. ระบบแบ่งเขต).
-Choose based on qualifications and past achievements of those on the party list, 49.4% (total); 55.4% (Puea Thai voters); 46.7% (Democrat voters).
-Choose based on policies of party, 31.6% (total); 28.8% (Puea Thai voters); 26.2% (Democrat voters).
-Choose based on which party they are with, 19% (total); 15.8% (Puea Thai voters); 27.1% (Democrat voters).
BP: Found these results interesting…
6. Bangkokians, who do you most want as PM (asked without specifying names) (คนกรุงเทพฯ อยากได้ใครมาเป็นนายกรัฐมนตรีคนต่อไปมากที่สุด (เป็นคำถามปลายเปิดให้ผู้ตอบระบุเอง))
BP: If someone had told BP a month ago that Yingluck would be the “preferred PM candidate” of Bangkokians in one month’s time, BP would have been skeptical. She has added impetus to the race for Puea Thai and one of the ways back into the race for the Democrats is to go after Yingluck although this will be difficult to do so directly lest they been seen as going after a woman hence it is better for others to do (cough Kaewsan cough). Mud does stick, but people can also have sympathy for those who have mud thrown at them….
The poll also details who will win each Bangkok constituency. The survey sample is much lower than the DPU poll – DPU poll over 8,000! – and BP has added details of the DPU poll to the below chart:
NOTE: Yellow indicates winner. For DPU poll, if yellow is not indicated it means “undecided/too close to call”. The darkish yellow color also indicates the winner, but is when the Bangkok Poll has a different result than the DPU poll.
BP: The DPU poll showed Puea Thai leading in 18 constituencies, Democrats in 6, and too close to call in 9. This one shows Puea Thai winning 21, Democrats 6, and 6 too close to call.
A. So 25 are the same and 8 are different. Of the 25, Puea Thai are winning in 17 in both polls and the Democrats 3 in both polls.
B. The Democrat’s gain in 15, 19, and 30 is plausible give the gap in the DPU poll is only 1-4% in each of those constituencies.
C. The decline of the Democrats in constituency 10 is little odd given the large lead for the Democrats. Then again, the initial May 23-25 DPU poll showed the Democrats only leading by 4…
Between the two DPU polls and this poll we have had over 17,000 people surveyed in Bangkok and there are a few changes and they show the same thing which is Puea Thai comfortably in the lead. Yes, the undecideds are still high enough that they could help the Democrats get back into the mid-teens, but the undecideds have dropped and so far this is only helping Puea Thai. Now, BP expects that ultimately the Democrats will do slightly better but the Democrat’s hope of winning 30 seats is dependent on them winning 30 out of the 33 seats. Yes, you can hope the polls are all wrong, but dissatisfaction with the rising prices/inflation predates the polls and is real. Yingluck has also been very careful not to be negative and inflammatory so for those on the fence who have been unhappy with the Democrats, they can more easily justify their decision. Also, not every poll can be biased against you.