In the lead-up to the July 3 election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows (from oldest to newest):
- The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%),
- Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call, and
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 43%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 3% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 47%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
- Poll of the Lower North showing how people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 23.2%, Democrats 22.2%, 4.5% for other parties, and 50.1% were undecided),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 22%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%) and party vote (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%),
- Nationwide Bangkok-only DPU Poll which shows that Puea Thai is leading in the constituency vote 47% to Dems 40% and party vote 47% to Dems 39%,
- a Bangkok University poll that showed that Puea Thai is leading 33.6% to 17.6% for the Democrats in Bangkok for the party vote,
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 52%, Democrats 34%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%), and
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 35%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 33%) and party vote for (Puea Thai 36%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 32%)
BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which will be included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate.
There is a new ABAC poll that was released today. The poll surveyed 5,349 people between June 1-21 in 28 provinces (Bangkok, Pathumthani, Samat Prakaran, Nakhon Nayok, Suphan Buri, Chonburi, Samut Sakhon, Ratcaburi, Sakaew, Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Amnat Charoen, Si Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani, Loei, Nong Khai, Kalasin, Phayao, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Nan, Uthai Thani, Sukothai, Phetchabun, Surat Thani, Songkhla and Yala). The questions are below:
Q1. Are you intending to go to vote or not? (แสดงผลการประมาณการจำนวนประชาชนและค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ระบุ ความตั้งใจจะไปเลือกตั้ง)
A. Yes, 76%
B. No. 24%
BP: Which suggests a slightly higher turn-out than the 74.5 of 2007.
Q2. Have you decided who you will vote for? Only those who will vote ( แสดงผลการประมาณการจำนวนประชาชนและค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ตัดสินใจเลือกอย่างใดอย่างหนึ่งแล้วกับผู้ที่ยังไม่ตัดสินใจ
A. Yes, 69.9% (which ABAC states equates to 25,204,398)
B. No, 30.1 (which equates to 10,853,396)
Q3. Who will you cast your party vote for?
1. Puea Thai, 43.7% which equates to 55 seats although the range is 46-63
2. Democrats, 39.1% which equates to 49 seats although the range is 40-58
3. Bhum Jai Thai, 6.6% which equates to 8 seats although the range is 0-17
4. Chart Pattana Puea Paendin, 3.5% which equates to 4 seats although the range is 0-13
5. Other parties, 7.1% which equates to 9 seats although the range is 0 – 18
1. Assume the “range” is because of the poll’s 7% margin of error.
2. The Suan Dusit poll is superior as it surveyed people in all 375 constituencies whereas this poll only surveyed 28 provinces. This doesn’t mean the ABAC poll is somehow bad. There are a good selection of provinces from the various regions, but it is better to view the poll as reflective of those 28 provinces and not necessarily reflective of all provinces in Thailand.*
3. Having said that the Suan Dusit poll includes leaners whereas this poll doesn’t. If BP was to hazard an educated guess – taking into account with Abhisit conceding the Democrats are 3-4 points behind and a look at this poll and other recent polls, if leaners are NOT included the Democrats are around 8 points behind Puea Thai on the party vote. Part of the problem is that leaners are going to Puea Thai so the Democrats need to reverse that and then eat into Puea Thai support. They don’t have much time left as advance voting starts this weekend. Will the Rajaprasong rally scheduled tomorrow help them?
*See the below except for a previous poll on the Northeast:
You can also see that for the party vote that support for Puea Thai differs greatly by province. Puea Thai have 36.4% of the party vote in Buriram, 41.3% in Nakhon Ratchasima, 65.1% in Khon Kaen, 71.2% in Ubon Ratchathani and 84.6% in Udon Thani. This can pose a problem for other polls, for example the ABAC poll who usually survey only 17 or 20 provinces with 5 or 6 provinces in the Northeast. Now, 6 out of 20 provinces is representative generally. There would be a big difference if those provinces surveyed was Buriram and Nakhon Ratchasima versus Ubon and Udon. Hence, such polls should be seen as representative of the provinces surveyed and not necessarily reflective of each region or nationwide. This is particularly important when comparing one ABAC poll with the next one as the provinces surveyed may be different and hence this could lead to wild swings.