In the lead-up to the election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows:
- The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
- Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
- Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%), and
- Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call.
BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which will be included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are no data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate.
There are a couple of polls which have not yet got to blogging about and they are two ABAC polls from a few weeks ago – one showing Puea Thai in the lead and the other showing Democrats in the lead – and a Bangkok poll last week showing Puea Thai in the lead for the constituency and party vote, but will mention these polls when making election predictions by regions.
Now, as an update to last week’s Suan Dusit, Suan Dusit have released another poll (available as Word DOC from here). This time the poll surveyed 4,694 people nationwide between May 23-28. No survey data methodology is available online and there is only one question, but at least a relevant one…
Q1. Who will you cast your party vote for?
However, the “Vote No” will not be counted when deciding how to divide up seats and if you remove the “Vote No” and the “Undecided” (thus, assuming that no party gains more than the other parties) and you get the below chart:
Then, if you compare last week’s Suan Dusit poll to this one for the Democrats and Puea Thai:
BP: Not quite sure why Puea Thai have improved in the South. Their drop in the Northeast could be because of the focus the Democrats have put on the Northeast and the rise in the vote for the Democrats. Likewise, the Democrats have dropped in the North, but Puea Thai have increased their share. That Puea Thai spent the first few days campaigning in the North – just after/around the time this poll was taken – and Yingluck is from the North could be an explanation. It could also be the people polled and the areas polled differed. See 2 below too.
Then with ‘vote no’ and ‘undecided’ removed:
BP: Some points below:
1. Both the Democrats and Puea Thai have gained slightly although more so for Puea Thai. If you use the chart with ‘vote no’ and ‘undecided’ removed this would result in 59 seats for Puea Thai, 51 seats for the Democrats, 4 seats for Bhum Jai Thai, 3 seats for Chat Thai Pattana, 2 for Rak Prathet Thai, and the remaining 6 divided up between the smaller parties. Hence, BP was surprised to read Avudh’s article in The Nation today:
Based on a number of opinion polls, the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties are in a fierce struggle to grab popular votes. Though Pheu Thai is slightly ahead, its lead is too narrow to ensure the outcome and the Democrats have more than 30 days to overtake their rivals.
Under projections of a 70 per cent voter turnout and a rough allocation of 300,000 votes per seat, the two rival parties are likely to share some 80 of the 125 proportionate seats up for grabs.
The remaining 45 seats will be shared by small parties, notably Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai.
Newly-formed parties like Matubhum, Rak Santi and Palang Chon are likely to win party-list seats. Many see Chuwit Kamolvisit of Rak Prathet Thai Party as a shoo-in candidate. Due to his clever publicity stunt, he is enjoying the same media attention accorded to Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva and Pheu Thai’s Yingluck Shinawatra.
BP: BP’s ‘complaint’ is the undervaluing of the two major parties. As we saw with the 2007 General Election and we are seeing with all polls now, it is the two major parties who are dominating the party vote yet Avudh views they will win only 80 out of the 125 party list seats and the smaller parties will win 45 seats. Really? This means those parties will need to poll around 35% of the party vote together. That ain’t happening.
Now, for constituencies the medium-sized parties of Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai will do well in certain provinces, but there is no indication that people will cast their party vote for them in large numbers. BP views the smaller and medium-sized parties will win 20-25 seats.
2. Bhum Jai Thai have dropped from 3.88% to 2.88%. Their vote in the Northeast has fallen from 12.96% to 4.21% in the Northeast. This could be the areas people polled are different from last time (ie. less Buriram) as others (i.e including Chat Pattana Puea Paendin) increased from 4.04% to 10.52% and perhaps more Nakhon Ratachasima which explains the Puea Thai drop and Democrat rise too (although the different in the North could likewise be partly explained by different areas polled). Then again you also have to think about were people are campaigning and what policies at a single time they are advocating and this could also explain the differences. Regardless, Bhum Jai Thai’s numbers are not that good.
3. ‘No vote’ has halved from 2.78% to 1.36%. Now, this may go up as people who are really undecided are probably more likely to choose this as a final option, but the PAD ‘no vote’ campaign is not resonating enough to make a difference yet. This is one helpful thing for the Democrats as such voters are more likely to vote the Democrats than for Puea Thai….