Suan Dusit Poll shows Puea Thai in the lead
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Suan Dusit Poll shows Puea Thai in the lead

UPDATE: The chart in Q4 appeared in “preview” when wrote the post, but for some reason was not appearing in the “post”. It seems to be okay now…

On Sunday, Suan Dusit released a poll that surveyed 3,584 voters nationwide. The survey was conducted between May 19-22, 2011. An html version of the survey is here and PDF is here. This poll was conducted after Yingluck was chosen as No. 1 and after we knew who was on the party list of each party.

Q1. Which party will you vote for the party vote (ประชาชนจะ​เลือก ส.ส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ​หรือปาร์ตี้ลิสต์ พรรค​ใด?)

Dusitpollmay23v1

NOTE: Rak Prathet Thai is Chuwit’s new party

However, the “Vote No” will not be counted when deciding how to divide up seats. Hence, if you remove the “Vote No” category, you get Puea Thai 42.40%, Democrats 37.93%, Bhum Jai Thai 3.99%, Chat Thai Pattana 3.29%, Rak Prathet Thai 1.64%, and Others 4.07%. This would lead to a distribution, out of the 125 party list seats, of Puea Thai winning 53, Democrats 47, Bhum Jai Thai 5, Chat Thai Pattana 4, Rak Prathet Thai 2, and Others with 5. This leaves 9 seats unaccounted for/up for grabs with the undecided.

NOTE: Has anyone seen any details post-amendment of the Constitution and the Organic Acts of the election threshold for the party vote? BP has seen mention of 250,000 votes, but this could be simply a calculation as opposed to an actual threshold. What BP is asking, is there a number or percentage threshold?

Alternatively, if you remove the “Vote No” and the “Undecided” and you get the below chart:

Dusitpollmay23v2

BP: In this scenario,  out of the 125 party list seats, Puea Thai wins 57, Democrats 50, Bhum Jai Thai 5, Chat Thai Pattana 4, Rak Prathet Thai 2, and Others with 5. This leaves 2 seats unaccounted for/up for grabs depending on the threshold requirement/calculation of how to allocate party list seats.

1.1 Again, this poll only refers to the party vote which only accounts for 125 out of the 500 seats. People can vote for the candidate of one party for their constituency vote and then vote for another party  for their party vote. For example, for the 2007 General Election the Democrats and PPP (the precursor to Puea Thai) received around 40% each for their party vote, but PPP received 37% of the constituency vote whereas the Democrats received 30%.

1.2. Puea Thai seems to be much better in the North than some recent polls suggest. Does having Yingluck going there and campaigning and speaking the Northern dialect help?  Will this translate the same for the constituency vote? BP raises this as the Democrats have stated they will pick up seats in the lower-north. Then again from the same article the Democrats were expecting to lose seats in the Central Region. It doesn’t state which seats, but BP imagines in Chonburi Province where the Sonthaya Khunpluem faction has left Bhum Jai Thai and formed Palangchon. The Democrats did very well in Chonburi in 2007 and this seemed to signify the end of the Khunpluem faction, but since then the Khunpleum faction have won local races. It is hard to know locally how the constituency vote for Palangchon will end, but they are not making any dent for the party vote. Can the Democrats do well in Chonburi again?

1.3 Bhum Jai Thai have stated they will win 1 seat in Bangkok, 1 in the Deep South, and another 12 outside of the Northeast for the constituency vote.  They are going to need a dramatic increase in their constituency vote in the Central Region to be able achieve this. Chuwit’s party, which is just Chuwit and for which we has only recently launched, has 10 times the number of people who will vote for the party in the Central Region compared with Bhum Jai Thai.

1.4 The sample applies for the other third parties outside of Chat Thai Pattana, how strong is their support base? They are not going to be picking up many party vote seats…

Q2: Do you know which lottery numbers the parties received? ( ประชาชนรู้​หรือ​ไม่ ? ว่า​การ​เลือก ส.ส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ​หรือปาร์ตี้ลิสต์ ​เลือก​โดยดูหมาย​เลข ของพรรคนั้นๆที่จับสลาก​ได้)

Dusitpollmay23v4

Note: Puea Thai got No. 1; Democrats No. 10; Bhum Jai Thai No. 16, Chat Thai Pattana 21, and Rak Prathet Thai 5.  BP understands this is the order of how parties will appear on the ballot paper.

BP: Benefit of being No. 1? Relevancy is that voters must find the party on the ballot and being No. 1 helps although the Democrats have a nice round number in 10. Bhum Jai Thai and Chat Thai Pattana less so….

Q3: Does it matter/have an impact on how you vote whether a party in regards to the party vote has a single digit number or a two digit number? หมาย​เลขของ​ผู้สมัครส.ส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ​หรือปาร์ตี้ลิสต์ ที่​ได้อันดับต้นๆ (​เลข 1หลัก) ​และอันดับท้ายๆ (​เลข 2 หลัก) มีผลต่อ​การตัดสิน​ใจ​เลือกของประชาชน​หรือ​ไม่?

Dusitpollmay23v5

BP: What can one say? Numbers matter? Justifying choice? The North seems particularly relevant and given that Puea Thai are doing well there

Note: This is not all up to being superstitious as the reasons why it matters are listed are ‘easier to remember, not familiar with multiple digits, easier to vote, easier to see, if you don’t know who you will vote then will look at the numbers at the beginning (​เลขจำง่าย  ​ไม่คุ้นกับ​เลขหลายตัว  ​เลขต้นๆสะดวก​ใน​การ​เลือก ฯลฯ…มอง​เห็น​ได้ก่อน  ถ้า​ไม่รู้จะ​เลือกพรรค​ไหนจะดู​เลขอันดับต้นๆ ฯลฯ). In case you think it is an unusual quirk, there is statistical evidence that candidates (one assumes the same applies to parties) who ranked more highly on the ballot paper receive a greater number of votes.  See here and to a lesser extent here (really only the 20s-60s in Ireland, but one assumes this is related to education and so on this basis it could apply to Thailand). This is more for uncommitted voters, voters unsure, voters are making up their mind at the last minute…

BP thinks this may also matter given how confusing some of the party names are, like Chat Thai Pattana (who are No. 21) and Chat Pattana Puea Paendin (who are No. 2). If you want to vote for Chat Thai Pattana, will you get confused with No 2?

Q4: When you choose MPs on the party vote, what are you basing your vote on? (2. ประชาชนจะ​เลือก ส.ส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อ​หรือปาร์ตี้ลิสต์ ​โดยดูจากอะ​ไร ?)

Dusitpollmay23v31

BP: On this policy doesn’t have a major impact although BP wonders how many Puea Thai voters like Puea Thai because of the Thaksin-era policies….