Yes, this NIDA poll is (PDF) a little ‘old’, but provides better details on the breakdown. Also, this poll is one of the few that asks who people will cast their *constituency* vote for. Most polls ask who people will cast their party vote for. This poll was conducted between May 2-3, 2011. Poll surveyed 1,203 people nationwide.
Bangkok and surrounding provinces 182 (15.13%)
Central Region 226 (18.79%)
North 222 (18.45%)
Northeast 405 (33.67%)
South 168 (13.97%)
BP: This seems to be in line with the population of the various regions. Understand that Central Region excludes Bangkok and surrounding provinces.
Under 25, 202 (16.79%)
25-39, 412 (34.25%)
40-59, 494 (41.06%)
60+, 95 (7.90%)
BP: As with most polls, this seems to under-represent those aged over 60. This is probably because these people are more likely to be at home are harder to survey, but just wish to point this out.
Buddhists 1153 (95.84%)
Christian 6 (.5%)
Muslim 44 (3.66%)
Single, 412 (34.25%)
Married, 761 (63.26%)
Divorced/Widowed, 30 (2.49%)
BP: Usually, a breakdown of religion is not included in these polls, but as NIDA included this information BP has too…
Grade 6 or less, 340 (28.26%)
Grade 12 or equivalent, 405 (33.67%)
Vocational Certificate or equivalent, 125 (10.39%)
Bachelor’s degree or equivalent, 309 (25.69%)
Higher than Bachelor’s degree, 24 (2%)
Civil Servant/state enterprise, 145 (12.05%)
Private company employee, 216 (17.96%)
Business owner/freelance (includes self-employed), 279 (23.19%)
Farmers/laborers, 282 (23.44)
Housewife/house-husband/retired/unemployed, 153 (12.72%)
Students, 128 (10.64%)
BP: Again, the “Housewife/house-husband/retired/unemployed” category probably under-represents this group and the student group is over-represented although this is the nature of most polls (i.e as they are mostly at home and hence more difficult to survey).
None, 267 (22.19%)
Less than 10,000, 505 (41.98%)
10,001-20,000, 246 (20.45%)
20,001-30,000, 73 (6.07%)
30,001-40,000, 43 (3.57%)
More than 40,000, 54 (4.49%)
Unspecified, 15 (1.25%)
BP: BP hasn’t done a breakdown of a NIDA poll previously or been able to compare the performance of the poll with actual election results so won’t offer too much comment on the accuracy of NIDA polls, but the survey data is very detailed and NIDA have been very transparent in releasing it. There is the separate question of how reflective this is of the population – geographically it appears to be.
Q1. Which candidate from which party that [do you] expect that people will vote for in the upcoming election? (ผ้สูมคัรฯจากพรรคการเมอืงทปี่ระชาชนคาดว่าจะเลอืกในการเลอืกต้งัทกี่าลงัจะมาถึง)
NOTE: After typing the above, and doing the below chart, BP re-read the question and realized that those surveyed *may* interpret the question as referring to who they think others will vote for which is not the same as who the person surveyed will vote for. This is the type of question that NIDA have asked for the party vote question so BP has not included it.* Having said that, this might not be the exact question that people were asked and is just the header because NIDA specifically states just below the survey details ‘from the survey of NIDA poll found that 23.36% of people expect that [they] will vote for Puea Thai candidates…’ (จากผลการสารวจของนิดา้โพลพบวา่ประชาชนร้อยละ23.36คาดวา่จะเลือกผสู้มคัรฯจากพรรคเพื่อไทย…)
NOTE: No = number of people, % = percentage of people in geographical area who will vote for a candidate from that party or are undecided etc. This info is not included in the poll, but can easily be worked out in Excel once you know how many people in each geographical area were surveyed so you can view the spreadsheet here.
1. For Bangkok and surrounding provinces, BP should note that PPP (the precursor to Puea Thai) won 7 seats in Bangkok (compared to 29 for the Democrats) versus 16 seats in the surrounding provinces (compared to 4 for the Democrats) in the 2007 election – see Chris Baker’s chart here – so one shouldn’t necessarily read this chart, particularly when 62.64% are undecided, as meaning the Democrats are suddenly going to lose Bangkok.
2. One reason for the undecided could be that voters do not know who the candidate will be so there is some rationale that the undecided would be so high. One can say that those who are voting for who they will vote that it means they are voting regardless of who the candidate is.
3. Little surprised at how low the Puea Thai vote is in the Northeast and the advantage that Puea Thai have in the South, but because the undecideds are so high.
4. One point that BP has made in the past and is relevant when the Democrats talk about increasing their vote total in the Northeast. Increasing their vote total in seats they are going to lose doesn’t help. It may help for the party vote, but as you can see from above the Democrats dominate the South. The problem is that winning the South by such high margins doesn’t mean something extra as a win is a win. BP’s point is that 20% or 23% for constituency vote is just a number. One party could win 251 seats by a simple majority of 1, but the other party wins 249 seats by large majorities and in this scenario the “other party” would win a high percentage of votes but still lose the election. So the constituency vote does not necessarily reflect how many seats will be won although it can be an indicator when we get breakdowns. Parties need to increase their vote totals in constituencies which are marginal/they can win.
5. One point which BP wants to expand on in a later post – and refer back to this post and others – is the fall in the vote for third parties particularly Bhum Jai Thai. The Democrats need Bhum Jai Thai to do well and from a number of recent indicators they are not. Not all the seats that Bhum Jai Thai will lose will go to Puea Thai though some will go to the Democrats, but if Bhum Jai Thai does badly it will make it more difficult for the Democrats to form a government.
*Q is which party do people expect will receive the most votes on the party list/vote (พรรคการเมอืงทป่ีระชาชนคาดว่าจะได้รับเสียงสนับสนุนมากที่สุดในระบบบญัชีรายช่ือ หรือ Party List). The result is Puea Thai 35.41%, Democrats 24.69%, Bhum Jai Thai 3.33%, Others .33%, and don’t know/unsure 36.24%. The only relevance here is how people view others will vote for.