E-san poll breakdown for 5 provinces in Northeast
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E-san poll breakdown for 5 provinces in Northeast

BP has already blogged about the E-san poll which surveyed 2,354 people in all 20 provinces in the Northeast showing that for those who have decided who to cast their party vote for it is Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%, and Chart Pattana Puea Paendin, 5.3%.

However, the poll also had the breakdowns of 5 of the larger provinces in the Northeast, namely Buriram, Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Ubon Ratchathani, and Udon Thani, of which party those surveyed will cast their vote for.

Remember this is only for the party vote which constitutes 125 seats out of the 500 seats. The Northeast makes up about one-third of Thailand’s population so as a quick guide this means around 40 of the party list MPs will come from the Northeast. Puea Thai will get 26 MPs, Democrats 8 MPs, Bhum Jai Thai 4 MPs, and Chart Pattana Puea Paendin 2 MPs (2 have not been allocated).  For Puea Thai and the Democrats these numbers seem reasonable, but where else will Chat Thai Pattana Puea Paendin and Bhum Jai Thai get significant numbers of party votes from elsewhere in the country?

The breakdown for the 5 provinces is below:

1. Buriram

Bhum Jai Thai 41.9, Puea Thai 36.4%, Democrats 19.2%, and other parties 2.5%. Then see the breakdown for the two largest parties based on the data from ECBER and the Matichon chart in Thai which can be viewed here.

buriram2

NOTE: This data should be viewed vertically and not horizontally. For example, 39% of those voting for Puea Thai earn less than 5,000 Baht a month. It is NOT 39% of all voters who earn less than 5,000 Baht a month are voting for Puea Thai. BP only has the data has collected by the poll and made public. Yes, BP realizes this is confusing and hence this little explainer.

BP: Some points:

1.1 On gender, large majorities of both Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Thai voters are male – the overall survey oversampled females by 56% to 43% – so this probably reflects the other numbers that females in Buriram went for the Democrats (see Udon below).

1.2 On occupation, should one be surprised that 19.3% of  Bhum Jai Thai voters are civil servants/state enterprise workers whereas only 2.8% of Puea Thai voters are, but on the reverse only 10% of Bhum Jai Thai voters are farmers compared to 25% of Puea Thai voters.

1.3 Aside from that, there are not that many differences. Even if you think of income, around 84% of Bhum Jai Thai and Puea Thai voters earn under 10,000 Baht a month although overall Bhum Jai Thai voters earn a bit more.

That Puea Thai do quite well in what is seen as Newin country partly explains the headline on Friday in the Bangkok Post about a Newin aide in Buriram defecting to Puea Thai. Perhaps, the electoral climate was not that favorable for him in his constituency to be with Bhum Jai Thai (money, of course, can explain partly too).

2. Nakhon Ratchasima/Khorat

Puea Thai 41.3%, Chat Pattana Puea Paendin 28.4%, Democrats 22%, and other parties 8.3%. Puea Thai 65.1%, Democrats 28.2%, Bhum Jai Thai 4.8%, and other parties 2%. Then see the breakdown for the two largest parties based on the data from ECBER and the Matichon chart in Thai which can be viewed here.

khorat

BP: Some points:

2.1 On age, much younger voters prefer Puea Thai versus older voters prefer Chart Pattana Puea Paendin comparatively.

2.2 Slight reversal with more farmers voting for Chart Pattana Puea Paendin compared with Puea Thai, but then again Puea Thai wins out with civil servants/state enterprise employee

2.3 On income relatively even although Puea Thai voters earn  slightly more, but equal numbers earn less than 15,000 Baht a month.

3. Khon Kaen

Puea Thai 65.1%, Democrats 28.2%, Bhum Jai Thai 4.8%, and other parties 2%. Then see the breakdown for the two largest parties based on the data from ECBER and the Matichon chart in Thai which can be viewed here.

khonkaen

NOTE: This data should be viewed vertically and not horizontally. For example, 37.2% of those voting for Puea Thai earn less than 5,000 Baht a month. It is NOT 37.% of all voters who earn less than 5,000 Baht a month are voting for Puea Thai. BP only has the data has collected by the poll and made public. Yes, BP realizes this is confusing and hence this little explainer.

BP: Some points.

3.1: 46.3% of Puea Thai voters have a Grade 6 or less education versus 8.5% of Democrat voters. 49.3% of Democrat voters have a Bachelor’s degree versus only 9.1%* of Puea Thai voters.

3.2: 25.4% of Democrat voters are civil servants/state enterprise employees versus only 1.2% of Puea Thai voters. However, 29.3% of Puea Thai voters are farmers versus only 5.6% of Democrat voters.

3.3: 71.3% of Puea Thai voters earn less than 10,000 Baht a month versus 33.8% of Democrat voters. 35.2% of Democrat voters earn more than 15,000 Baht a month versus 7.2% of Puea Thai voters.

Stereotypes exist for a reason and are mainly reflected in Khon Kaen.

4. Udon Thani

Puea Thai 84.6%, Democrats 14.7%, and others parties .8%. Then see the breakdown for the two largest parties based on the data from ECBER and the Matichon chart in Thai which can be viewed here.

Udon

BP: Some points.

4.1 Large percentage of Democrat voters are female compared with Puea Thai voters.

4.2 Large percentage of Democrat voters have a bachelor’s degree, work in private enterprise, and earn 10,000+ Baht a month compared with Puea Thai voters.

Again, the stereotypes fit.

5. Ubon Ratchathani

Puea Thai 71.2%, Democrats 25.6%, and other parties 3.3%. Then see the breakdown for the two largest parties based on the data from ECBER and the Matichon chart in Thai which can be viewed here.

ubon1

BP:  The stereotypes are a bit reversed compared with Khon Kaen and Udon. On income, very similar, but against other results more Democrat voters have Grade 6 education or less than Puea Thai and more Puea Thai voters have a Bachelor’s degree than Democrat voters.

Overall, the stereotypes of Democrat voters being more educated, earning more money etc. hold true although there are discrepancies between the provinces. You can also see that for the party vote that support for Puea Thai differs greatly by province. Puea Thai have 36.4% of the party vote in Buriram, 41.3% in Nakhon Ratchasima, 65.1% in Khon Kaen, 71.2% in Ubon Ratchathani and 84.6% in Udon Thani. This can pose a problem for other polls, for example the ABAC poll who usually survey only 17 or 20 provinces with 5 or 6 provinces in the Northeast. Now, 6 out of 20 provinces is representative generally. There would be a big difference if those provinces surveyed was Buriram and Nakhon Ratchasima versus Ubon and Udon. Hence, such polls should be seen as representative of the provinces surveyed and not necessarily reflective of each region or nationwide. This is particularly important when comparing one ABAC poll with the next one as the provinces surveyed may be different and hence this could lead to wild swings.

Look, BP realizes some people dislike polls, but BP thinks it is important to evaluate polls as they will be talked about in the media. If you are going to refer to the headline poll numbers then you really need to look deeper into the numbers on exactly what they mean….

*corrected from 91% to 9.1%.

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