Rarely do we get such a large group of voters surveyed and in all constituencies in one province. Durakit Pundit University and the Nation Group conducted a poll surveying 6,230 eligible voters in 33 Bangkok constituencies between May 23 and 25. A copy of the poll in the form of a Word DOC can be found here.
Survey data methodology.
Less than Bachelor’s degree 68%
Bachelor’s degree or more 32%
Civil servant/state enterprise workers 5%
Private sector employee 20%
Help with family business 4%
BP: See BP’s post last week on the accuracy of Thai polls and remembering this is a single poll although one should note that some nationwide poll have surveyed just over 1,000 whereas this poll surveyed more than 6,000 just in Bangkok.
Q1. When asked which candidate they will vote for?
|1 Phra Nakhon, Pom Prab, Samphanthawong||52%||38%||10%||Dems|
|2 Pathum Wan, Bang Rak, Sathon||46%||40%||13%||Dems|
|3 Bang Kho Laem, Yan Nawa||34%||50%||16%||PT|
|4 Klong Toei, Watthana||40%||51%||9%||PT|
|5 Dusit, Ratchathewi||40%||56%||5%||PT|
|6 Din Daeng, Phya Thai||44%||46%||10%||Unsure|
|7 Huai Khwang, Part of Wang Thonglang||37%||57%||5%||PT|
|8 Lat Phrao, Part of Wang Thonglang||44%||50%||6%||PT|
|10 Bang Sue||50%||46%||4%||Unsure|
|11 Lak Si, Don Muang (Airport subdistrict)||27%||55%||17%||PT|
|12 Don Muang (except Airport sub-district)||31%||50%||19%||PT|
|13 Sai Mai||41%||38%||21%||Unsure|
|14 Bang Khen||41%||49%||10%||PT|
|15 Bang Kapi||35%||55%||10%||PT|
|16 Bueng Kum, Part of Khan Na Yow||45%||39%||16%||Unsure|
|17 Min Buri, Part of Khan Na Yow||50%||44%||6%||Dems|
|18 Klong Sam Wa||32%||47%||22%||PT|
|19 Nong Chok||42%||51%||8%||PT|
|20 Lat Krabang||47%||47%||6%||Unsure|
|21 Saphan Sung, Part of Prawes||35%||55%||10%||PT|
|22 Suan Luang, Part of Prawet||53%||47%||0%||Dems|
|23 Phra Khanong, Bang Na||34%||46%||20%||PT|
|24 Part of Thon Buri, Klong San||40%||51%||9%||PT|
|25 Chom Thong, Part of Thon Buri||33%||47%||19%||PT|
|26 Rat Burana, Thung Khru||41%||40%||19%||Unsure|
|27 Bang Khunthien||43%||45%||12%||Unsure|
|28 Bang Bon, Part of Nong Khaem [Chalerm country and his son is behind!]||50%||47%||3%||Unsure|
|29 Thawee Watthana, Part of Nong Khaem||34%||47%||19%||PT|
|30 Bang Khae||33%||41%||26%||PT|
|31 Phasi Charoen, Bangkok Yai||40%||49%||10%||PT|
|32 Taling Chan, Part of Bangkok Noi||60%||38%||2%||Dems|
|33 Bang Phlat, Part of Bangkok Noi||39%||44%||17%||Unsure|
Note: The determination of “winner” has been made by the polling company and not BP.
Note: The poll information also notes that in some factors the candidate played a major role in their choice of the voter and they were Constituency 30 and the constituency for Don Muang- which are Constituencies 11 and 12 (สำหรับตัวผู้สมัครในพื้นที่ มีความสำคัญต่อการตัดสินใจลงคะแนนแตกต่างกันในแต่ละเขต เขตที่ผู้สมัครในพื้นที่มีความสำคัญมากที่สุด คือ เขตดอนเมืองและบางแค).
The other data from the poll is not presented in the form of a question, but just merely information as per below.
– 82% said they intend to vote,
– 6% said they are unsure whether they will vote, and
– 12% said they think they will not vote.
-47% said they had decided who to vote for and will not change their minds,
-16% said they had decided who to vote for, but may change their mind,
-32% said they are undecided, and
-5% said they will ‘vote no’
BP: Some points below:
1. For the 2007 general election, Democrats won 49% to Puea Thai’s 40% and that resulted in 27 seats for the Democrats versus only nine for Puea Thai. We are almost seeing a reversal this time around. It is hard to compare by constituencies given that the change of electoral boundaries means we have moved from 12 multi-member constituencies to 33 single member constituencies. As we can see that things are normally quite close in Bangkok when you add up all the votes for each party, but when you look at the constituencies this often leads to one party winning a much greater share.
2. Puea Thai Thai, they lead by 15%+ in 8 constituencies and 10-14% in 6 constituencies whereas the Democrats lead by 14%+ in 2 seats with the rest for both under 10%.
3. Puea Thai score less than 40% in 4 constituencies whereas the Democrats score less than 40% in 12.
4. When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was asked about the poll, his response according to Matichon was that ‘things are rather close and it is like this every time’ (มันจะค่อนข้างสูสี และเป็นแบบนี้เกือบทุกครั้ง). When he was asked whether he was disappointed with the poll Abhisit answered ‘No, because they are the same as our polls’ (ไม่ เพราะตรงกับผลสำรวจของเรา). Abhisit goes onto note that things are close. The point he seems to be making is that while the 19 seats that Puea Thai are projected to win sounds high that the overall margin between the two parties in different constituencies is quite small and the overall margin is quite low.
5. Based on the above and even taking into account the margin of error and undecideds going for the Democrats in greater numbers, at the moment, it is hard to see Puea Thai winning less than 14 (a minimum of a 10% margin) UNLESS there is some major development. The Democrats need to take the marginal seats and then pick off the Puea Thai lead in the seats where the Puea Thai margin is less than 10%. Now, if the Democrats could take 19 seats that would be a major development, but it would mean the gap had narrowed from 27-9 to 19-14.
BP: It is hard to describe the poll as anything other than a good result for Puea Thai. It is just one poll, of course…