DPU Poll shows Puea Thai take the lead in Bangkok
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DPU Poll shows Puea Thai take the lead in Bangkok

Rarely do we get such a large group of voters surveyed and in all constituencies in one province. Durakit Pundit University and the Nation Group conducted a poll surveying 6,230 eligible voters in 33 Bangkok constituencies between May 23 and 25. A copy of the poll in the form of a Word DOC can be found here.

Survey data methodology.

Gender:

Male 49.3%

Female 51.7%

Education:

Less than Bachelor’s degree 68%

Bachelor’s degree or more 32%

Occupation:

Civil servant/state enterprise workers 5%

Private sector employee 20%

Self-employed 35%

Help with family business 4%

Contractors 15%

House-wife 7%

Student 11%

Unemployed 4%

BP: See BP’s post last week on the accuracy of Thai polls and remembering this is a single poll although one should note that some nationwide poll have surveyed just over 1,000 whereas this poll surveyed more than 6,000 just in Bangkok.

Q1. When asked which candidate they will vote for?

Constituency Democrats Puea Thai Others Winner
1 Phra Nakhon, Pom Prab, Samphanthawong 52% 38% 10% Dems
2 Pathum Wan, Bang Rak, Sathon 46% 40% 13% Dems
3 Bang Kho Laem, Yan Nawa 34% 50% 16% PT
4 Klong Toei, Watthana 40% 51% 9% PT
5 Dusit, Ratchathewi 40% 56% 5% PT
6 Din Daeng, Phya Thai 44% 46% 10% Unsure
7 Huai Khwang, Part of Wang Thonglang 37% 57% 5% PT
8 Lat Phrao, Part of Wang Thonglang 44% 50% 6% PT
9 Chatuchak 36% 48% 16% PT
10 Bang Sue 50% 46% 4% Unsure
11 Lak Si, Don Muang (Airport subdistrict) 27% 55% 17% PT
12 Don Muang (except Airport sub-district) 31% 50% 19% PT
13 Sai Mai 41% 38% 21% Unsure
14 Bang Khen 41% 49% 10% PT
15 Bang Kapi 35% 55% 10% PT
16 Bueng Kum, Part of Khan Na Yow 45% 39% 16% Unsure
17 Min Buri, Part of Khan Na Yow 50% 44% 6% Dems
18 Klong Sam Wa 32% 47% 22% PT
19 Nong Chok 42% 51% 8% PT
20 Lat Krabang 47% 47% 6% Unsure
21 Saphan Sung, Part of Prawes 35% 55% 10% PT
22 Suan Luang, Part of Prawet 53% 47% 0% Dems
23 Phra Khanong, Bang Na 34% 46% 20% PT
24 Part of Thon Buri, Klong San 40% 51% 9% PT
25 Chom Thong, Part of Thon Buri 33% 47% 19% PT
26 Rat Burana, Thung Khru 41% 40% 19% Unsure
27 Bang Khunthien 43% 45% 12% Unsure
28 Bang Bon, Part of Nong Khaem [Chalerm country and his son is behind!] 50% 47% 3% Unsure
29 Thawee Watthana, Part of Nong Khaem 34% 47% 19% PT
30 Bang Khae 33% 41% 26% PT
31 Phasi Charoen, Bangkok Yai 40% 49% 10% PT
32 Taling Chan, Part of Bangkok Noi 60% 38% 2% Dems
33 Bang Phlat, Part of Bangkok Noi 39% 44% 17% Unsure
Total 41% 47% 12%

Note: The determination of “winner” has been made by the polling company and not BP.

Note: The poll information also notes that in some factors the candidate played a major role in their choice of the voter and  they were Constituency 30 and the constituency  for Don Muang- which are Constituencies 11 and 12 (สำหรับตัวผู้สมัครในพื้นที่  มีความสำคัญต่อการตัดสินใจลงคะแนนแตกต่างกันในแต่ละเขต  เขตที่ผู้สมัครในพื้นที่มีความสำคัญมากที่สุด คือ เขตดอนเมืองและบางแค).

The other data from the poll is not presented in the form of a question, but just merely information as per below.

Q2.

– 82% said they intend to vote,

– 6% said they are unsure whether they will vote, and

– 12% said they think they will not vote.

Q3.

-47% said they had decided who to vote for and will not change their minds,

-16% said they had decided who to vote for, but may change their mind,

-32% said they are undecided, and

-5% said they will ‘vote no’

BP: Some points below:

1. For the 2007 general election, Democrats won 49% to Puea Thai’s 40% and that resulted in 27 seats for the Democrats versus only nine for Puea Thai. We are almost seeing a reversal this time around. It is hard to compare by constituencies given that the change of electoral boundaries means we have moved from 12 multi-member constituencies to 33 single member constituencies. As we can see that things are normally quite close in Bangkok when you add up all the votes for each party, but when you look at the constituencies this often leads to one party winning a much greater share.

2. Puea Thai Thai, they lead by 15%+ in 8 constituencies and 10-14% in 6 constituencies whereas the Democrats lead by 14%+ in 2 seats with the rest for both under 10%.

3. Puea Thai score less than 40% in 4 constituencies whereas the Democrats score less than 40% in 12.

4. When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was asked about the poll, his response according to Matichon was that ‘things are rather close and it is like this every time’ (มันจะค่อนข้างสูสี และเป็นแบบนี้เกือบทุกครั้ง). When he was asked whether he was disappointed with the poll Abhisit answered ‘No, because they are the same as our polls’ (ไม่ เพราะตรงกับผลสำรวจของเรา). Abhisit goes onto note that things are close. The point he seems to be making is that while the 19 seats that Puea Thai are projected to win sounds high that the overall margin between the two parties in different constituencies is quite small and the overall margin is quite low.

5. Based on the above and even taking into account the margin of error and undecideds going for the Democrats in greater numbers, at the moment, it is hard to see Puea Thai winning less than 14 (a minimum of a 10% margin) UNLESS there is some major development. The Democrats need to take the marginal seats and then pick off the Puea Thai lead in the seats where the Puea Thai margin is less than 10%. Now, if the Democrats could take 19 seats that would be a major development, but it would mean the gap had narrowed from 27-9 to 19-14.

BP: It is hard to describe the poll as anything other than a good result for Puea Thai. It is just one poll, of course…