Who will win the next election?
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Who will win the next election?

Matichon Weekly, 15-21 January, 2010 (Edition No. 1535), Page 8 has details of a poll from Dr. Thawilwadee Bureekul, Director of the Research and Development Office,. King Prajadhipok’s Institute – also see Kom Chad Luek. The poll was conducted during October-November and surveyed 2,000 people on who they would vote for and who they would not vote for if there was an election held today.

Political party
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Will choose
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Will not choose
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Puea Thai
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34.2
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14.2
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Democrat
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30.2
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29.2
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New Politics Party
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3.1
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6.5
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Chat Thai Pattana
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1.7
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2.7
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Bhum Jai Thai
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1.4
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2.5
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Puea Paendin
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.7
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1.8
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Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana
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.3
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.9
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Social Action
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.1
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2.1
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No opinion
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28.3
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39.6
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Per Matichon Weekly that Puea Thai would win is not surprising given the ISOC poll which said that Puea Thai could win up to 300 seats. This is why Abhisit will not dissolve parliament.

Per Kom Chad Leuk, for the smaller parties, this is why they want to amend the constitution in relation to moving from multi-seat constituency to single seat constituencies as they feel they are disadvantaged by the multi-seat constituencies. The advantage that the big parties gain explains the smaller parties’ suspicions on why the Democrats are being slow over constitutional reform of this issue.
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Dr. Thawilwadee estimates that the poll indicates that Puea Thai would win 30-40 more seats than the Democrats. On this alone, the smaller parties could go back with the Democrats, but the are presently not happy with the Democrats and might change to join a coalition with Puea Thai. For Puea Thai though it is not sure who will be the party leader or PM.
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/> The poll also showed that 53.6 percent were satisfied with the management of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and shows that Abhisit passed by 3 percent, although separately 56.8% said they had confidence in Abhisit. However, 63.6 percent had confidence in Thaksin. This on personal characteristics not on governing performance.
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BP: In August, have already blogged on who BP thought would win the next election:

To BP it is clear that the smaller parties (Chat Thai Pattana, Bhum Jai Thai etc) would suffer more than the Democrats if a general election was to be held in the next couple of months with Puea Thai being the beneficiary. Thailand appears to be me moving more towards a two party system all the time. In BP’s view, if an election was held next month (480 MPs), the results would be as follows. The number on the left is the prediction. The number on the right in brackets is the “base” or bare minimum:
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/>    Puea Thai 225 (200)
/>    Democrats 175 (155)
/>    Bhum Jai Thai 20 (12)
/>    Chat Thai Pattana 20 (12)
/>    Puea Paendin 15 (10)
/>    PAD 10 (7)
/>    Others 15 (10)

BP: Have a slightly larger gap than KPI with 45-50 seats and while think the smaller parties can certainly pick up a number of constituency seats, BP thinks they will need devote significant resources to do so whereas Puea Thai and the Democrats will be able to rely on their “goodwill”.

From the poll, have three points:

1. Puea Thai is the only party to have a positive choose/not choose figure (i.e where “will choose” exceeds “not choose”. Now, you may say this does not matter, but it does just to the extent that favourables matter. It is hard to see the 30 percent who will not choose the Democrats suddenly changing their mind.

2. The large number of undecided. The so-called silent majority. There have been numerous other opinion polls, but you can also see if between the 2005, 2006 and 2007 general elections that a number of voters switched sides so any side can certainly still win. Depending on the economy, the government may pick up votes.

3. Aside from the New Politics Party, there are no mass movements for many of the other smaller parties which is reflected in the lower numbers for the “party vote”. Now, for the constituency vote it may different matter, but still think the smaller parties will have a problem when they have to compete in so many seats. Devoting resources and time to a single seat in a by-election is one thing, but when you are competing in one hundred odd constituencies (if multi-seat) or 400 constituencies (if single seat) is a different matter.

Finally, the lack of happiness of the minor parties, particularly Chat Thai Pattana, towards the government may be a major factor post-election.
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