The Bangkok Post, which ran in the headline, “Government not afraid of political fall-out”, quoted Newin Chidchob, who is helping to prop up the Abhisit Vejjajiva government, as saying: “I never borrowed from the bank.” However, Thai E-news, which opposes the current government, claims Newin did borrow from the bank.

Meanwhile, Saxena told The Nation: “I may reveal the political inter-play that bought the BBC bank down.” 

The Bangkok Post and the Nation are considered supportive of the current government, with the Nation landing many lucrative media contracts with the government.

When in charge of the bank, Rakesh made a number deal of loan with few strings attached. Much of that money is believed to have gone towards loans to politicians – most notably the ‘Group of 16′ politicians.

Thailand is now ranked as the second most corrupt country in Asia. Massive corruption under the current government is well documented and many believe it to involve billions of US dollars.

But then Jaa is a Thai super-hero, but Thailand, a joke?

That is right, Chan just said if not because Tony had other commitments, the latest Rush Hour movie would have had the Thai action star kicking people left and right. “He is one of the best action heroes at the moment,” said Jackie.

“I am interested in a Hollywood movie, but it must be right,” said Jaa this week. But he is a really sensitive action hero who is very unpredictable.

Tony into Khmer?

Thailand or Siam relations with Cambodia of Khmer have soured in recent days.

But watching Jaa’s latest movie Ong Bak II you might think it is about the Khmer Empire, judging by all the Khmer Empire Deco. In the movie, Jaa fights against an evil totalitarian dictator-like regime, of ancient times.

Thailand now under totaritarianism?

But then Jaa is a Thai, and Thailand is now split between “total” nationalism and and liberal thoughts like justice and democracy. While Tony likes the “I am going to save something” type of movie, in this case, if the movie is made in Thailand, what is it that he is going to save?

Well, the current right wing nationalistic government has a track record of giving funds to movies that will build up Thai nationalistic fervor – like successive epics about the Thai-Burmese struggle. But will Jaa go for that?

What does Jackie Chan fight for?

Chan is from Hong Kong as with most super-heroes from Hong Kong, he is fighting either the bad ass “Totalitarianism Evil Empire Something” or some crooked crook.

Movie set wise, having Cambodia as a set may be as bad as having Thailand as a set because Cambodia’s government just canned its armed forces boss. Also, its relations with Thailand are not so hot at the moment. The Thai press is already saying the end is near for Cambodian leader Hun Sen’s term.

So it looks likely that if and when Jaa and Chan get together to make a super-hero movie, the set will likely be out of Thailand and also Cambodia. The movie will probably be in the US with some Hong Kong or China connection.

Popular culture and Hollywood movies?

Knowing how the globe’s popular culture sees Thais as a joke these days, maybe Tony will have to take on the role of the super-bad-guy with Chan playing the good guy.

But still, it sounds too good to be true -Tony Jar and Jackie Chan in the same movie! Hope Hollywood can help entertain us poor depressed Thais with an inspirational script.

Many say much of what is occurring in Thailand is about coup-ousted former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin. And many say what is motivating Thaksin is namely his US$2 billion assets frozen by Thai courts, as a result of alleged corruption.

“It is ridiculous how Cambodia Prime Minister said Thaksin is the same as Aung San who is fighting for Burmese democracy. Thaksin is nothing but an egotistic powermonger who wants his money back…He is causing a great deal of problem between Thailand and Cambodia,” said a former BBC journalist in Thailand, televised by the Thai government controlled TV, just hours ago.

Over 15,000 websites have been blocked in Thailand for national security reasons and many remain in Thai jail for lese majeste cases, that the Economist has quoted the Thai palace source as saying it the result of the government and not the palace doings. The current government runs a well funded campaign to get Thais to inform on other Thais. Most of the Thai media is under direct control of the government and the military.

“No” Thailand is not Burma, but is Thailand a democratic country? Most says “No” it is not.

Taksin: Aung San or Democratic Movement leader?

While, the latest poll, took during the last week; found that Thais prefer to see coup ousted, Taksin as the Thai Prime Minister; and the current government says it will stay in power until its terms ends.

It is now well documented that that the current government is backed by the military. But to trace it back a little, several governments Taksin supported and several political parties of Taksin were kicked out of power by the courts, faulting the government and the parties for minor technicalities.

It is also documented that the Phum Jai Thai Party leader, Nevin, was called into meet the current Thai military leader, Anupong, and Anupong convinced Nevin to break his fraction away from supporting Taksin, to support the current government.

Struggling against those conditions is the Thai Red Shirt. Taksin, for what ever his rationales are, is the leader of the red Shirt.

What about Taksin’s US$2 Billion?

The coup military created a body to go after corruption of the ousted Taksin administration. That resulted in Taksin’s assets being frozen. While well documented and widespread corruption under the current government is occurring, the body same body that went after Taksin Corruption, have not taken up the current corruption issues.

Currently, the poll says most Thais don’t believe the Thai justice system is fair and just and believe it has a double standard.

In Thailand, the courts are highly politicized and it is belief that if Taksin or his proxy takes power in Thailand, there will be ways, like if the courts became more just, to get the assets back to Taksin. Taksin built up a telecom empire worth about US$3 billion before entering politics.

But how hot will Thai politics get?

Currently Thailand is in the rainy season with rains practically daily, and traditionally, not a season for much protest activities. But the Red Shirt now say that with the rainy season almost over, they will hold prolonged protest, in November, to force the government out of office.

The Pury Thai Party of Taksin also sees the government on the verge of collapse, and is planning for an election in the near term.

What are the arguments?

“The Red Shirt have promise to hold a permanent protest gathering next month. That is because the courts will likely rule if Taksin’s US$2 billion frozen assets in Thailand will be confiscates or not. It is clear these events are linked and Thai politics will heat up. Especially with internal government bickering on all sides, including at the internal Democrat Party itself,” said a political analyst, who is involved on going after that Taksin assets on behalf of the Thai military, on True INN cable TV just hours ago.

“The longer it stays in power, the more it will loose at the election. This government is over. It is only a matter of time before it falls. Even the head of state to the ASEAN meet can see this and many did not even bother to attend the meeting. Its popularity is going down with every new poll. There is corruption and inter government fighting everyday. Time is on Taksin’s side and there is no rush to bring the government down,” said a political analyst, on the same program on True INN cable TV.

“They have moved their latest tanks and deploy surface to air missile in several areas at (classified)……They have increased their troops by over a thousand and many of theses are their best Special Forces troops along the (classified)….Cambodia is also in contact with (classified) for emergency equipment supply,” said the source.

The ASEAN defense ministry dialog is coming up after the current ASEAN meet, and the Thai high command have told local press that Thailand have lost naval supremacy in the region, particularly to Malaysia and Singapore.

“The military balance inside ASEAN has shifted away from Thailand in favor of (classified) and the Thais are worried,” said the source.

Local Thai press has been running several stories about Cambodia’s troops movements, believed to be leaked from the Thai military. Earlier, Thai press reports the Cambodia high command as telling the current Thai government that it was prepared to throw about 10,000 battle hardened troops against the Thai troops.

Cambodia’s defense minister have been reported in the Thai press as saying, as recently as yesterday, that Thailand and Cambodia’s high command are in a dialog about troops reduction along the border.

“The troops reduction talk depends on several issues that are being discussed,” said Ta Bun, Cambodia’s defense minister.

In a censure debate against a government under a government close to Taksin, the current Thai foreign minister, Kasit, called Cambodia’s Prime Minister a “Cheap Thug” and that the then government accepting of UNESCO’s elevation of a set of relics to be a global heritage site went against Thai national security interest.

Since then, as that Taksin supported government became the opposition, relation have soured as Thailand rejected the UNESCO elevation. Then Cambodia’s opposition party head visited Thailand and made several press statement against Hun Sen, with tacit support from the current government.

Hun Sen recently said he welcomed Taksin. The Thai Yellow Shirt, s group of highly nationalistic Thais, recently went to protest a Khmer Empire relic site and demanded Cambodian withdrew from the disputed area. The Yellow Shirt now say they plan to block the Cambodia embassy in Thailand.

Since then, other Khmer Empire relics have bought Thai and Cambodia troops close to confrontation. Thailand and Cambodia also face a dispute in the Gulf of Thailand where the area is rich in oil and gas reserves.

“Malaysia may use its submarines to instigate a naval blockade of Thailand. Judging by WW2 submarine activity in the area, the naval balance in ASEAN have tilted towards Malaysia and others. Thailand has lost its traditional supremacy,” said a statement by the Thai national security apparatus in the local press.

Several navies in the region have expressed interest or have in operation modern submarines including Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. While Thailand has a small aircraft carrier, several countries in the region have also expressed interest in aircraft carriers, including Indonesia.

“Thaksin did not support military spending,” said the statement.

The security also turned “highly” supportive of the current government.

“If we look back in recent history it is the politicians of past governments that have sold out the national interest to foreigners. We Thais must reconsider who are the enemies of the country,” said the statement.

Regarding Thailand’s current dispute with Cambodia, that also involves a rich oil and gas reserve, a supporter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatrar said he will bring Thai and Cambodia to jointly develop the area.

Thailand has fallen behind in all aspects of armaments build-up compared to most other ASEAN countries. Successive governments have cut the Thai military spending as a result of the poor economy and demands from other spending policies.

Most Thai politicians are weary of the Thai military’s involvement in politics and its reputation and standing in the Thai society have deteriorated over the years.

Thaksin sold his telecom empire to Singapore and was criticized for selling an interest vital to national security. Other telecom empires such as DTAC also sold their interests but escaped similar accusations.

Mostly in Thailand, the most creative and talented are those who are backed by cutting edge education and the opportunity to explore their abilities – and this is namely the high class Thais.

And as the globe competes more on creativity, the Thai government has instigated the “Creative Thailand Concept.”

Just listen to most Thai media, and one hears about creativity a great deal, but namely, it is associated with very high class and wealthy Thais. One very liberal blog, Thai Political Prisoner, even went as far as saying that in Thailand, “Creativity is meant to keep the class system going.”

And the blog has a point. The symbol of Thailand’s class system is written up everywhere as being creative genius. One Thai democratic activist, who is a close friend of the Dalai Lama, made a simple statement that he thought some of the works are not that great. And he is now facing defamation suits.

The Thais as a people are creative, as it is now a significant producer of global class music, movies and animation. Thailand’s advertising industry, for example, has won countless global advertising awards.

As the crossroad for much of Southeast Asia, for centuries the Thais would mix and match everything from food to political/economic philosophy.

But dare these demonstrated abilities isolated accidents or are they part of a system that produces it and encourages it?

Under the current Thai very right wing class system, millions of Thais are simply cut off from having the opportunity to learn and experiment with new ideas and concepts. Over 15,000 websites are blocked and most of the Thai media throws out 24-hour-a-day propaganda with little critical thinking or investigative reports.

Most in Thailand now live in fear if their thinking and beliefs are “politically” wrong. The Thai government now runs a program that tells the Thais to inform on other Thais if they hear of anything harmful to national security – meaning the class system.

Thai universities are locked into a system of numeric based acceptance, that only those who can afford extracurricular learning activities can grab hold of the high marks. A system to identify the talented has been put in place to pluck them out and give then a chance, but for most, there are few opportunities.

A recent poll, in this country that has demonstrated countless creative ideas, found that most Thais do not understand the “Creative Thailand Concept.”

This problems is now so severe, Grant and Thornton said the problem with Thailand’s companies is that, as the globe turns to creativity for solutions, the Thais is turning to cost cutting.

And as the world turns to the internet and the ICT industry for much of its creativity, Thailand is now ranked by the EIU as very lowly on the ICT rankings. In one industry as an example, the software industry, the entire industry is pushing Thai developers into open source development, and yet the entire budget for open source development in Thailand is US$4 million.

As all of the above occurs, Thai politics is hopelessly dragged into trench warfare between the far right and the new left. There is very little creativity to the entire process that is producing cutting edge solutions. For most Thais, they are avoiding wearing anything that is red, yellow or green. All colors of political identity.

But the Thais are highly creative.

The best selling media and advertising oriented magazine is “Mad.” On the cover of practically every cover are the symbols of liberal thoughts and the layout is in California 1960s style.

At Thailand’s wholesale clothing market of Pratunam, anything that has to do with psychedelia and skulls sells like hot cakes, while the right wing’s government “I Love Thailand” t-shirts get practically no attention.

But turn on the TV or read most newspapers, its all about how the class system is so much creative. Well how can they be but creative, given what they have got?

Well things have got so bad in the last shareholders’ meeting the biggest group of shareholders brought up the question and the meeting was abruptly called off. Then, in protest, a vocal leader of the shareholder took the issue to industry leaders and handed in a letter of protest, but only after the company sent its security people after that vocal shareholder.

That is right, the chairman of the board of advisors is causing a great deal of unrest in at the company. In fact, this advisor helped the security guard apparatus of the company to take over the power from the shareholders and gave it to the security people to appoint the CEO of the company.

You can say all you want that the ousted CEO was good or bad, but to take power away from the shareholders in that way is certainly totally lacking in good corporate governance, and it is illegal.

It has got to the point that this chairman of the board of advisors calls people who do not agree with him “traitors” of the company, and the security guards of this company threatens those shareholders that are against the company’s top management.

In the meantime, the company suffers a great internal revolt. And all its functions are not working.

Its internal audit, for example, is twisted to keep the chairman of the board and the propped-up CEO interest in the company intact. It is now ranked as the second most corrupt company in Asia. Its operational performance, on all aspects, is one of the lowest around. Its shareholderss’ morale is so low, the happiness index is down. Even as this company staged an association meeting, most did not show up for the opening ceremony.

Normally, most listed companies in any stock market anywhere worldwide would have fired this chairman at the board of advisors already.

But why is he still in power at this company? That is the question we are going to try and answer.

Well nobody knows really.

But it may be related to how this company is very old and has a set of cultural values that it is trying to hold in place. This chairman of the advising board might be trying to uphold that. But then what are companies supposed to do? Is it wise to uphold values and tradition at any expense?

Everyone is of course grateful to the work the founder of the company had done and made the company successful. But does any company exist in a vacuum of its own environment or does the company existsin a wider global environment? Should the company adapt to that global environment? Or should it shun the globe?

Should new concepts and ideas that challenge the company’s values and culture be accepted or should they be suppressed. Does the wish of the shareholders mean nothing at all? And is it right to use security guards to scare the shareholders that do not agree? Is it right to have security guards prop up the company’s top management?

And the globe’s commissions are watching – from the United Nations to human rights organizations. Even the globe’s popular culture sees this company as nothing much more than a global class joke these days.

The solution is off course to bring all stakeholders of the company together and seek a solution – a smart compromise and a meeting of old and new cultures – as this company is well known for doing.

But then again, is this chairman of the board of advisors is even interested in doing that? Sadly, the answer is no, he is not interested.

And thus, the company suffers.

Arismun, a Red Shirt supporter, plans to hand a letter criticizing the current government’s human rights record to ASEAN leaders, who meet at this week’s ASEAN summit.

“The military broke into the house of a former local politican near the ASEAN venue and searched for Arismun, but failed to find him,” said Thai Rath.

The Thai government has invoked an emergency decree for the summit, after Red Shirt protests forced leaders to evacuate the last ASEAN summit in Pattaya last April.

The US Ambassador to Thailand said: “We feel safe and secure with the emergency decree, but freedom of expression must be respected.

“Anupong sees the Red Shirts as a lower class subset of people and the cause of Thailand’s problems, and he is planning to crack down hard on the Red Shirts. Be warned that bloodshed will result,” said the circular.

About 50 retired senior military and police officers have joined Thaksin Shinawatra’s Puey Thai Party and have caused a major power shift in the Thai Army.

Anupong’s political arm, Phum Jai Thai Party, is believed by many political analysts to have little chance in the next election, with Thaksin’s Puea Thai party expected to win with a landslide vote.

The Thai and foreign energy sectors have indicated to this blog that they are now re-aligning their political position in support of Thaksin Shinawatra and the Red Shirts.

“We don’t care about the individuals involved, but the world is energy hungry and we need to tap the Thai-Cambodia reserves right now,” said an oil and gas exploration specialist.

Another oil and gas expert agrees: “This current Thai government is too nationalistic and it is hurting our industry.”

Thailand and Cambodia are at loggerheads on many issues, including a rich oil and gas development, but a prominent member of Thailand’s opposition Puey Thai party, Gen. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, has promised to resolve the issue.

“I will bring Thailand and Cambodia together to jointly develop the reserves,” Chavalit said.

Cambodia is backing an ASEAN-backed body that helps mediate border disputes. But Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has said he will block it and does not support bringing up the Thai-Cambodian disputes at this week’s ASEAN Summit.

Thaksin has recently elevated retired army general Chaovalit to head his political party, the opposition Puey Thai Party.

Only a day after that elevation Chaovalit accepted an invitation by Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Sen, to visit Cambodia.

There Hun Sen and Chavalit agreed to jointly push for joint development of a rich oil and gas reserve in a disputed Thai-Cambodia area in the Gulf of Thailand. Cambodia has granted French and Japanese oil and gas firms exploration and development rights in the disputed area. However, advisers to the Thai government on the oil and gas industry told the said French and Japanese firms will not work in the area because the threat of war means they cannot get insurance.

Meanwhile, Hun Sen this week said that exiled former prime minister Thaksin is welcome in Cambodia anytime.

“I have built Thaksin a house and he is always welcome to stay in Cambodia. I am not a Thai but I feel sorry for him to face an unjust Thailand. My wife cried when she heard of Thaksin’s plight,” said Hun Sen.

But as Thailand advertised that “Culture and Diversity” is the attraction of Thailand’s tourism industry, successive cultureal gatherings of the Burmese in Thailand have been axed by successive Thai government as a threat to Thailand’s national security.

The numbers of these Thai of Burmese origins in bangkok alone is about 300,000. They have kept a low profile for centuries but have been reasserting their cultural values.

“We have all but will stop all our cultural activity from now on,” said Pan Dalaya, a Thai Burmese who help organized the last cultural event that was blocked by the Thai government.

“We can not allow the Thai Burmese and the migrant Burmese to stage cultural events because that will raise Burmese nationalism in Thailand and cause problems for Thailand with Burma, said the Thai military.

About two million registered Burmese legal migrants working in Thailand are waiting for International Labor Organization and United Nations help to pressure Thailand to lift discriminatory practices.

“The refusal of the Social Security Office to allow Burmese migrant access to the SSO’s Work-mans Compensation Fund remains under consideration of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the UN Special Rapportuer on the Human Rights of Migrants,” said a statement issued by the Human Rights and Development Foundation.

Two Burmese migrant workers injured while working in Thailand have petitioned several Thai courts to get compensation for their injuries. However, thus far little progress has been made despite several petitions to the Thai Supreme Court to uphold the Thai constitution’s guarantee of equal treatment.

According to latest data, about four million Burmese workers are now working in Thailand. About half a million of their children remain without a nation as they have not been granted Thai nationality and Burma will not accept them as Burmese.

As Thailand has progressed economically, many Thais are unwilling to do the more dangerous and low-paying jobs. Legally registered Burmese migrant workers in Thailand often receive very low pay and live in extremely crowded conditions. The plight of unregistered Burmese migrant workers in Thailand remains unresolved.

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), meeting in Thailand in a few days, says it will establish the first ASEAN wide human rights commission. However, critics say the commission, as it is being proposed, will have little enforcement authority. 

Successive Thai governments have viewed Burmese migrants as a threat to Thai national security. About half a million political refugees from Burma in Thailand live in camps.

The massive exodus of Burmese to Thailand is caused by a combination of difficult economic and political conditions in Burma.

It started with the CIA helping Thailand combat terrorism, with the mindset of Western superpowers, but it failed and Thai intelligence units took the lead and the CIA was the observer. This time it worked. Terrorism in Thailand’s deep south, while active as ever, for the first time was on the defensive and in retreat.

“We became the laboratory for the Americans,” said a Thai intelligence analyst.

The key point of Thai intelligence strategy, according to the Thai analyst is that: “We stopped hating the terrorist… Systematically address what they say their grievances are… Mediated their political support… Keep terror case studies at a cutting edge level.”

And if you pick up most newspapers here in Bangkok today, you will see quotes of senior Thai intelligence operatives giving warnings to the Thais in the deep south about the dangerous situation there.

That major shift has been occurring for a long time now. While in the US, there is the alert and warning status, never before has an intelligence agency anywhere warned people of sthe pecific time and place of risk like Thailand is doing. In most cases, it is only a careful analysis of risk and benefit that will result in warnings.

The reason detailed information is not given is because in fighting terror, most intelligence agencies use these attacks as the foundation to “move up” the chain in tracking terror operatives in their activities.

This type of shift is not occurring only at the micro level. Globally, some of the most professional intelligence agencies have been speaking out directly to the public.

For months now, the CIA has testified to the US Congress in detail about many of their operations, when under the Patriot Act, they simply did not have to do so.

Then the head of the MI5 gave a public conference, speaking directly to the public for the first time in MI5’s history.

The Thai intelligence analyst told this blog: “We open up so others will open up to us. In this fight against terror, the trouble is the lack of critical information and nothing else. Out there, someone always knows where terror will hit.”

As for moving up the chain to get to the head cells, the analyst said: “There is no head cell, but a conglomerate of head cells. The US is lucky to have Bin Laden to deal with, here in Thailand; we don’t even have a public relations man to analyze.”

“They (intelligence agencies) might be arguing to look at torture in the context of the times, but here in Thailand, the context is a society that already has a track record of abuse,” said Titinand Chamlongsuk, an NGO working for a group that gets support from the American government USAID program to educate poor Muslims in Thailand’s terrorist-infected deep south.

Both MI5 and CIA are under investigation for using torture to extract information from suspected terrorists. Those investigations have led to revelations of secret torture centres across the globe, including Thailand.

Both MI5 and CIA maintain a significant presence in Thailand, and both are assisting Thai intelligence in blocking Thai terrorists linking up with off-Thailand terrorist units. Several global level terrorists have been captured in Thailand, and are believed to have been taken to Guantanamo Bay for interrogation.

A Thai intelligence analyst told this blog that Thai terrorists are increasingly using sophisticated tactics. “Look, we know of the good work USAID is doing but the terrorists are getting better down there and we need help to block that advance,” said the source.

The Asia Human Rights group has issued a statement on the international anti-torture day condemning Thailand for widespread use of torture across the entire spectrum of Thailand’s security apparatus.

Well if you have been following me you know by now that I am playing with real powerful people and Thailand is a very violent country.

If I don’t make it, remember me and please get a donation going for my family, OK.

Your blogger friend,

Terry

Thai CP, whose telecoms units are the exclusive sellers of  Apple’s iPhone in Thailand, also owns True, which offers broadband services in Thailand but has blocked  all websites that support Thaksin, leading for calls from Red Shirts for the service, and iPhones, to be boycotted.

In addition, the Thai election commission reported that in the last election True donated about US$1m to the Democrat Party of current Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, which has further angered the Red Shirts. The donation was the largest the party received and it was the only political donation CP made.

Meanwhile, CP’s CEO came out to criticize the Thai telecom commission on its plan for the 3G mobile phone system, saying it was hurting Thai telecoms interests. CP was competing head-on with AIS, owned by the Singapore government’s investment arm Temasak. The Thai Prime Minister later said Thai telecoms interests must be protected and the Thai telecom commission changed its bidding structure.

Also, the Voice of America (VOA) and Thailand’s True Cable TV have joined in a cooperation agreement. The agreement is similar to previous cooperation between True and the BBC which was terminated under pressure from the Thai Red Shirt movement.

“We are working with Voice of America to train our journalist how to be better reporters,” said True Cable TV.

Last year the BBC terminated its long relationship with True as several heads of the Red Shirt movement, particularly Jai Ungpakorn, who is a Thai/British mixed race in exile from Thai prosecution in the UK, raised the issue to British politicians in the UK.

Cambodia recently granted a French oil giant oil and gas exploration rights in a disputed Thai Cambodia territory. The World Bank estimates the area to have very rich oil and gas reserves.

“The French Navy came and they docked their ship on our territory and their sailors went swimming on the beach completely naked,” said the program, which traced how the French used force to take the territories and how the Thais fought against it.

A French intelligence analyst here in Bangkok declined to comment.

Earlier, the Cambodian Embassy in Bangkok accused the Thai government’s ilovethailand.org website of indulging in “historical revision” which it said was not the correct history.

Thailand and Cambodia are at loggerheads over the entire Thai Cambodian border area where many relics from the Khmer Empire lie.

The Thai navy responded by rushing to build a small naval outpost at the disputed area, equipped with very high-speed attack craft built to transport SEAL.

France meanwhile took nuclear devices off its aircraft carriers in a move some European military intelligence bodies have pointed out as paving way for operations in the nuclear-free ASEAN region.

Advisors to the Thai government on oil and gas exploration told the Thai government that because exploration and development involves massive investments, the risk of confronting the Thai navy, means an inability by Total to get insurance and thus Total will likely not explore the area.

“I want to warn Chavalit that joining Thaksin is like being a traitor to the country,” said Prem (pictured).

If Chavalit, called Big Jiew by Thais, who is now the key man of the Pury Thai Party of Thaksin, and Prem, formerly the key man of the Thai military, can settle their differences a great deal to the root cause of Thailand’s conflict will be solved.

But can they help settle the problems in Thailand?

Matichon, the mass circulated Thai daily said: “Big Jiew sees himself as the lock and chain to tie the different competing powers in Thailand together, but it looks like the lock and chain is rusty.” Big Jiew himself said: “I have tried to talk with Prem but he does not even answer my calls, but I will keep trying to court him.”

If Prem and Big Jiew get together, it will spell a major shift in Thailand power balance to the middle, but will also favor Thaksin.

Prem is believed by many to the one who helped engineer the coup against Thaksin and now supports General Anupong Paojinda, the current Thai military Chief of Staff. Anupong has been documented for engineering the rise to power of the current government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva.

It may sound foolish for Jiew to be trying to reach Prem, since underlying it all is Prem’s strong Royalism stance and Thaksin is still seen as less royal than Abhisit, but Big Jiew is trying hard.

“Lets move forward and leave the past behind. I carry no grudges and genuinely want peace. I will always seek to negotiate a way out of Thailand’s difficulties and this confrontation,” said Thaksin, who picked Big Jiew to head the Puey Thai Party.

Desperate as it may seem, it appears that Big Jiew is the best hope for peace and reconciliation in Thailand. That is because Big Jiew and Prem are both military men that share a long history together and the relationship has both been both highly productive and destructive.

Going back some 30 years, Prem and Big Jiew went fighting against the rising power of the Communist Party of Thailand. Big Jiew and Prem formed and put in place the policy of using a political solution instead of military, in fighting the communists.

But a riff developed. Big Jiew saw the root cause of the communists as being a Thai socialist system that is undemocratic and lacks social justice – and thus Big Jiew is a strong proponent of a radical restructure of the Thai political system to make it democratic and just.

Prem saw the communist problem as being the result of foreign instigator, namely the Chinese communist influence on the Thai communist movement. Therefore, Prem saw the political solution as short-term and that there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the Thai society.

Big Jiew caved in to Prem and put his dreams of democracy and just Thai society to rest, and helped save Prem from the brink of several coups.

That Prem’s government was kept in power by the military, with a front of being democratic, through having political parties in the government. That Prem government is very much like the current government of Abhisit, which Anupong put it into power and keeps ithere.

Big Jiew’s chance as the Prime Minister came later, but was short lived as the Asian Financial Crisis drove him out of office.

Similar to the problem with the communists, which Big Jiew saw as relating to fundamental problems in the Thai society while Prem saw it as about Chinese communist instigators, today, with the current Thai crisis, Big Jiew again sees it as being a cause of a fundamental problem, but again Prem sees it as being about Thaksin, the instigator.

The monkeys are so hungry; they swim to fishing boats that comes near the beach. “They fight like crazy for scrap of food we have and a few of them drown in the fighting, but we can’t feed them all,” said Par, the captain of a fishing vessel to a local newspaper.

While the Thai government says that the Thai economy is recovering in a “V” shape, a trickle of news is breaking through the government’s control of Thai media that says otherwise. Grant and Thornton research found that 63 percent of Thai CEOs think the Thai economy will deteriorate in the next 12 months, against a global outlook of only 16% deterioration.

“The difficulty for the Thais is that they see the solution in cutting cost and re-organization, while in most other Asian countries, it is creativity and innovation,” said Peter Walker, Grant and Thornton representative in Thailand.

But the Thai monkeys on the island are faced with even a grimmer picture than Thai CEOs. 

Pattaya resort is about half an hour’s drive from the Thai heavy industry zone of Eastern Seaboard Development, where pollution is so bad villagers and environmental activist have sued and successfully blocked about US$10bn in investments. The environment is so bad, one elderly villager told the Thai courts that many of her relatives have died of cancer.

The reason those monkeys on the Pattaya island came out of the forest on the island to rely on tourist for food is because environmental degradation hit the island hard and destroyed the food chain.

Meanwhile, as the monkeys starve and drown fighting for food, the Thai government is trying hard to get those blocked US$10bn in investments going. All sorts of rules and rationales are being used to skirt the investment blockade.

But many foreigners are not buying what the government is saying and are starting to look elsewhere in ASEAN for their investments. Local newspapers now run stories on how other ASEAN countries are following the development and are quietly making contact with those affected by the blockade and are competing for those Thai rejected investments.

The Thai federation of industry now says that the prospect of a Thai economic recovery looks dim. It says investments this year is down about 20% from last year’s level and unemployment is rising again.

Most independent economist have been saying for months now that the Thai economy may have bottomed out but the recovery will not be in a “V” shape as the government says, but it will be in an “L” shape or at best a “U” shape.

By the way, what ever side you may be on, environmentalist, developmentalist, humanist, animal rights activist, industrealist or whatever, if you want to see one of the sadest picture you have ever saw in your life, just go into the internet and hit, Khaosod, it is the newspaper that broke the starving Thai monkeys story.

“Its well organized to reach more people and it has suprised us,” said the source.

The source said the flier campaign indicates a desperate move by the terrorist to counter the success of the Thai military campaign to reach out to the people in the Thai Deep South, including a recent announced amnesty offer to former terrorist and support of terrorism.

Thailand is a Buddhist dominated country, however the Deep South is mostly Muslims that as recent as a 100 years ago was an independent territory. Terrorist in the area say they are fighting an independent war, however about 5,000 innocent people have been killed by the terrorist in the past 10 years since renewed conflict there surfaced.

While terrorist are mostly organized into cells that is highly difficult to reach the top, Thai terrorist takes that system to the extreme that several attempt to broker a peace deal between the Thai government and the terrorist failed to reach any conclusion as those who hold true power with the Thai terrorist network, suspecting it was an intelligent trap to get them to expose themselves.

The beginning of this flier campaign is being conducted right when the Thai military and security apparatus says it is in-touch with the people of the region and have gained a great deal of support and trust.

This first flier campaign by the terrorist involved an offer on the head of people who fired onto a Muslim mosque. The Thai source told this blog that there is a new type of propaganda war occurring that is being coordinated with real action to discredit the Thai army.

“I am very concerned why this action is taking place on the eve of the ASEAN Summit. My read of it is that this is a pressure tactic on the Thais to bring up the issue at ASEAN and to start expanding the issue globally for global mediation,” said the Western source. “It better not escalate.”

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said he was going to bring up the relics for discussion at the ASEAN meet. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva said as chairman of ASEAN, he will not allow that to occur.

Earlier, a nationalistic and extremist royalist group called Yellow Shirt, went to the relics to demand it be returned to Thailand and for the Thai military to evict all Cambodians who have settled in the disputed territory.

Earlier, Hun Sen, also said any Thais that trespass in the area will be “shot”.

While Thai military maintains that it is in contact with Cambodia’s military high command and relations are smooth, Cambodia troops have on several occasion crossed into clearly defined Thai territories on the Cambodian border that lays other relics from the Khmer Empire.

Both Thai and Cambodia have fortified their positions near the relics of Phra Viharn, with earlier statements from Cambodia high command to senior Thai government officials that Cambodia was ready to throw about 10,000 battle hardened troops against the Thai army.

Thailand’s foreign minister, in a censure debate against a government close to Taksin, before that government fell, called Hun Sen: “A Cheap Thug.”

I am here in Bangkok, at Asoke road right in the middle of the freaking city, and am faced with expensive pet dogs, wild cats, a clever fox and double tong snake every day. Each day is an uphill struggle for survival. Here in Bangkok, on the endangered species list is decent human beings.

First, dangerous cute pet dogs:

Try talking to the many Harvard MBA around Bangkok and you would think they are some freaking expensive pet dogs belonging to the rich and high-class Thais to use in their control of Thailand. I mean these so well educated folks with curtting edge theory who lives in the US for so long, end up slaving for the powers that be, entirely forgeting about anything decent in life like liberty, democracy and social-justice.

Second, dangerous wild cats:

Then try walking around Nana, Patpong or Soi Cowboy and you would be confronted with a bunch of real cute but dangerous wild cats. These wild cats within half an hour will be able to empty any-one’s pocket of guarded treasures, and worse yet, if one falls in love with one of these wild cats, it is doom.

Third, dangerous clever fox:

Then try walking all the major foreigner-heavy sidewalks and one would find small stores selling all sort of stuff that are run by the clever fox. Like when the Thai goes up to buy something it is this, but with foreigners goes up to buy anything, it is three times the Thai pays. So again, these foxes will robbed you blind.

Lastly, dangerous double tong snake:

Then try turning on the news or read the newspapers, and all one hears about Thailand is from the double tong snake politicians who lies about everything and give you the complete opposite of what is going on in Thailand.

Like I said, if you are in Australia, you are lucky to be dealing with those cute but wild animals. For most Thais and foreigners here, we all wish some animals around Thailand were truly on the endangered specials list.

“These solar panel water purifying units are so useless we are using the solar panels to dry fish and fruits,” said the village headmen association head.

Then it graduated to a US$12bn nationwide road building that is seeing a 25% cut. Then it went to graduate school with revelations that unwanted medical equipments were being pushed onto rural clinics and hospitals at again, above fair market price.

“We don’t need these blood analysis units and why are we paying 200% above market price,” said the rural doctors’ association head in this country.

Even in this country that the poll says 80% of the people see corruption as a normal part of business, people start to greet each other on the street saying, “They borrow for corruption.”

Politics is so detrimental here, that on top of the global economic crisis, the government is borrowing about US$44 billion to stimulate the economy in the next four years.

Things are so bad here the Industry Federation says openly that business is being hurt badly across the board from politician-civil servant corruption alliance that is demanding a 30% cut from everything the government does. Then the American ambassador, again openly, says the corruption at the custom house is so severe American businessmen are seriously hurt.

Then corruption went to the doctorate school in this country, with researchers conducting research that shows that the average ‘Fair Market Price’ for everything the government purchase, went up a staggering 40% from last year’s ‘Fair Market Price’.

Most newspapers in this country have been running estimates that based on the governments US$44bn borrowing to stimulate the economy, anywhere from US$5 to US$15bn will go to corruption.

The country in this corrupt situation is Thailand, where it now ranks as the second most corrupt country in Asia.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva is considered beyond corruption.

However, only after several Thai newspapers went after the corruption story with deeper and deeper investigative journalism and will not stop for months on end, like Thai Rath and Matichon, the Prime Minister finally said today, for the first time, that, “I will stop the corruption and fire every politician involved.”

But in Thailand, politics is fragile. The Prime Minister is held in power by a fragile coalition, propped up by the Thai military. On top of that, the fragile coalition is faced with a political challenge that comes from the former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is ranks as Thailand’s 15^th richest person.

In a country where the people sees corruption as normal, both vote buying straight from the voters and vote buying through buying of influential people are still prevalent. Most Thai journalists see the massive corruption in the current government as a “storing up of political fire power” for the next election.

As for the military, that many say is propping up the Prime Minister, back in the 2006 coup that kicked Thaksin out, the military said it was because “Thaksin is very corrupt.”

“Hang on a minute; we pose no threat to China; why would they want to spy on our weapons testing facilities? Then again, we are allied with the United States,” said Beck.

Australian intelligence in Bangkok agrees with Beck and stressed that the Defence Department move can hurt Australian mining interest in the rich ASEAN region.

The ASEAN Summit will take place in a few days, and both China and Australia are dialog partners. While nationalistic at times, Australia in recent years has started to engage ASEAN as partners – leading the Americans to follow that Australian move. However, Australia now faces with China, US and Europe in the ASEAN region.

Many joint Chinese and Australian interests have emerged to invest in ASEAN.

“Chinese and Australian joint mining interest is exploring across ASEAN and it is a mutually benefiting partnership,” said Canty, an Australian intelligence analyst in Bangkok, who specializes on trade and investments intelligence for the Australian embassy here.

According to Canty, several Chinese Australian firms are exploring rich deposits of potash, gold and copper across the entire mainland South East Asia together, particularly in Thailand and Laos.

“We are providing the expertise and the Chinese are providing the connection and the capital,” said Canty.

In a country like Thailand and Laos, it is the Chinese connection that we are relying on to get through some of the most difficult political processes in Asia, said Canty.

Canty said he just wanted to warn his intelligence analyst colleagues at the Australian Defense industry that China is a super-power and is highly sensitive to western pressure tactics and protectionism to its interest. Canty said however that he understands the security concern at the Woomera missile range.

“I keep telling my boss that the war is not only in national security, but there is an economy and trade war going on in Asia and that Australian mining interest are now linked up with some of the largest conglomerates in China and learning a great deal about China’s abilities in winning that trade and investment war,” said Canty.

In Thailand, for example, the Chinese are setting up a US$5 billion fund to use Thailand as the launching pad for investments in the entire ASEAN region. Canty said, Australian firms are now in position to “Piggy-Back” that fund into mining operations in the entire ASEAN region.

As for Woomera, Canty said, “I want the Defense Department to look very carefully if there are any secrets worth stealing by the Chinese, because from what I know, the range is as old as the cold war and to make sure this is not just sort of knee-jerk reaction for political purpose.”

In Asia, terrorism is rampant in many countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, with latest reports that local terrorist in these Asian countries, have linked up with a wider global network of terrorism.

While terrorism in Asian countries have a different Geo-political root than the terrorism western democracies face, the linkages poses some question for Asian security apparatus. And the main question is, how well are western democracies fighting terrorism? Spearheading that fight is the US under Obama.

Confronting western democracies is a terrorism network that expands out of the Middle East to impact countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Currently, the US Obama administration is in a re-think on his foreign relation policies-and that involves a great deal of national security considerations and interest.

Most academics reason that Obama is trying to strike a balance between flexible engagement and flexible containment. Simply stated, the policy brings with it a level of flexibility-to both engagement and containment.

On dealing with the full brunt of terrorism, there is little doubt that the US under Obama is still very much a Hawk, as we have witness a quick extension of the Patriot Act by a US senate panel.

But what of the situation on the fringes of terrorism such as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq-where military actions and terrorism action is very difficult to differentiate?

Several newspapers in western democracies have recent ran a series of investigative reports that says the US intelligent apparatus, namely the CIA, are in the process of rapidly and significantly increasing their operatives in Afghanistan. If true, the same move is most likely taking place in Pakistan and Iraq as well-if not the entire Middle East.

Those news reports said the CIA was charged with two tasks, increase intelligence to support Obama’s decisions and second, to help American military forces become more effective. In fact, it was not long ago that a senior NATO officer told the press that the American army is loosing touch in how to fight the modern war.

But the key point is the CIA has a track record of perhaps politically motivated wrong analysis, as a way of pushing its own agenda. And the Patriot Act gave the USsecurity apparatus great un-check powers in conducting anti-terrorist activities.

The root cause a great deal of the hate that feeds terrorism, much of that towards western democracies, is from conflicting values and cultures, albeit there are strong national security built into it such as energy security and territory integrity.

If Obama turns up the heat greatly, as one can expect the CIA to recommend, that terrorism network would likely heat-up significantly. If Obama, chooses to maintain status quo, the CIA will probably, inform Obama that it will be a continuing of attrition. If Obama pulls back, the CIA will probably be against the move as the terrorist could see it as a sign of weakness.

There appears to be few choices left for Obama.

Some intelligent analyst have speculated that Obama will simply supplant the military with the national security people, as a way to improve military action effectiveness, and have more CIA-linked operatives go after the terrorist. However, that appears to be too little and too late. Some intelligent analysts says the level of people involved is beyond the CIA’s capabilities.

The key question therefore is back to square one.

And that is how much influence the CIA has on Obama, at this very critical juncture-as Obama is re-thinking his overall foreign policy tools. Then square two question to ask is will Obama demand solid concrete proof from the CIA to back its assessments.

On the line is the level of hatred that will feed terrorism, both the frontal random attack type of terrorism and the military-linked type. How will Obama deal with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq? Unfortunately, Obama have little choice but to base his decision on listening to the CIA.

And unfortunately for Asia, as the CIA testimony to the US senate revealed, the CIA is very much active in using Asian territories in fighting terrorism.

The Red Shirts are planning to hold mass gathering in the next few day, and the Thai government has issued several emergency decrees to contain the crowd. In the previous ASEAN summit, the Red Shirt protests forced heads of state to flee.

Thailand’s prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the current ASEAN chairman, is not only banking the on the success of ASEAN to boost his position in Thailand, but is banking on “Solid Progress” on an ASEAN economic and social integration to the European level.

The Thai government rationale is that a smooth ASEAN meet that results in concrete progress is critical for Thailand’s economy and political stability. On the line for ASEAN is trade and investments. Intra ASEAN trade for most ASEAN members is now the biggest segment of trade for them.

But what of the ASEAN meet itself and the prospect for integration?

As Thailand’s Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva will surely grab and propagate positive ASEAN news and play down anything that it, but what are some of the issues facing this ASEAN meet?

“No, there will be no bringing up Phra Viharn relic at the ASEAN meet,” said Abhisit, but the Cambodian Prime Minister, Hun Sen, said he will bring the relics that sit on disputed Thai Cambodian territory up at the ASEAN meet.

And that small dispute between Thailand and Cambodia is just the tip of the iceberg. A little down south in the Gulf of Thailand, Thailand and Cambodia are in dispute over a World Bank estimate area that has a very rich oil and gas reserves. Already, French, Japan and US oil giants are positioning themselves to develop the disputed area.

Other points of contention also exists.

The Philippines, hit hard by the typhoon, is buying lots of rice because the storm caused severe damages to the country’s rice growing regions. And Thailand is offering Thai rice.

But because the ASEAN free trade area, that will see rice trade liberalization inside ASEAN, will take effect early next year the Philippines is pulling all the strings to dump Thai rice prices. The Philippines has already back-tracked on its commitment on ASEAN rice trade. The rice issue is causing a great deal of conflict between the two countries. The argument is to the point that both countries are threatening the other with penalties for the back-track.

Then Thailand’s rice export policy has seen a Malaysia firm benefiting at the expense of Thailand and many of the most popular business papers in Thailand are calling foul play, dragging the name of the Malaysian firm all over several Thai newspapers. The Malaysian firm plans to buy the Thai rice to capture the Malaysian rice market. 

In the meantime, rumors have hit Thailand about the health of the Thai King causing a great deal of damaged to the Thai stock market. Already the Thai government has ordered the police to investigate who started the rumors. And several stock brokerage house firms in Thailand with parents in Singapore have came out to deny they started it.

Perhaps the best example where ASEAN still faces nationalism and protectionism in each country’s territory is Thailand’s current plans for the advance 3G mobile phone system. The plan is pitching AIS, owned by the Singapore government through Temasek, and True, a Thai conglomerate, against each other. The Thai government is protecting True to the extent that it plans to amend the bidding system to benefit the Thai firm. “We must guard the Thai telecom industry against foreign dominance,” said Abhisit.

While all of the above are nationalist and protectionist emotional hot-buttons that will be hit at the ASEAN meet, there are also other more significant fundamental points of contention.

Burma still looms large as a question for ASEAN. While the US and Thailand is highly in favor of engagement, the fact is that there are still inter-ASEAN conflicts as to the level of engagement. Countries such as Indonesia still prefer a flexible containment policy, where there is still containment but with room for engagement. And in implementation of this conflicting position, already ASEAN has rejected the Burma’s selection of people to represent Burma at the ASEAN people’s forum that will be held in parallel with the head of state meet.

On top of that apparent split on Burma, global level human rights organizations have criticized the ASEAN position on Burma to the extent that Human Rights Watch have even went as far as criticizing the US for its drive get ASEAN to engage Burma through Abhisit. Then the globe’s NGOs and human rights activists have said they will also hold a parallel meeting on ASEAN human rights and environment policies.

But Burma is not the only point of contention. On the macro level, wider trade and national security issues are also waiting to be resolved.

The APEC meeting is coming up in Singapore right after the head of ASEAN meet, and both China and the US are looking to take some solid leads into that APEC meeting.

At the ASEAN foreign minister head meeting recently, that saw US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying the US will engage ASEAN more as a way to counter-balance China’s interest and influence in the region, the question of how can ASEAN balance the competition between China and the US in the region loomed large. As early as two weeks ago, a US senator called for ASEAN-US Free Trade to counter balance China’s interest.

Several ASEAN countries are strong US allies on national security, but are however, closely tied to the China on trade and investments. And as China focuses on building its naval force, the entire Asia region is rushing to upgrade its naval strength.

Some Thai academics, such as Pongpat, a professor at a Thai university’s center for strategic study said: “Who in ASEAN will be the gateway for who when ASEAN gets closer to a community is anyone’s guess, but I figure several ASEAN countries will be doing some serious alignment and re-alignment-and that alignment will impact all aspects of its relations with super-powers like China and the US.”