Photo: EPA

The blast was so powerful that its bang was heard miles away. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack but local authorities have blamed Pakistani Taliban for this deadly incident.

According to sources, the apparent target was a Zaka Khel sub-clan of Afridi tribe, who has formed an armed Lashkar (anti-Taliban private militia) in remote Tira valley of the region. The bomb exploded when a bus, packed with Zaka Khel tribesmen stopped at the petrol station for filling. Four security personnel also lost their lives in the explosion.

Jamrud has seen number of deadly attacks in the past including an attack in a Mosque during Friday prayer on August 19 last year that killed 52 people.

Violence had been down in recent months which many analysts believe might be a result of purported peace talks between Pakistani Taliban and the government. According to data compiled by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), the number of people killed in suicide attacks in Pakistan in the first 11 months of 2011 dropped almost 40 percent compared to the same period last year, deaths from all attacks by militants fell nearly 20 percent.

But violence abruptly flared up with the beginning of New Year. In past few days more than two dozens security personnel have been killed by militants active in Pakistan’s tribal region to avenge the killing of their comrades in the hands of security forces. On Monday, officials in Pakistan’s Orakzai Tribal belt found 10 bullet riddled bodies (while some sources revealed they were beheaded) of Pakistani troops who were kidnapped by the Taliban on December 21 during a military operation. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the killing of the military personnel.

Taliban has already threatened Pakistani government with dire consequences if the government does not meet their demands of releasing some of their members arrested recently.

According to the statement, exclusively available to AC, the act was to avenge the death of one of the group’s top commanders Qari Kamran in Khyber Tribal region and the alleged humiliation of his female family members in the hands of security forces.

“Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, to take revenge of the death of martyred brothers in the hands of security forces, delivers this new year’s gift to the Pakistani government. And the first act of retribution for our bothers. Wait for more such acts to come,” the statement says.

Qari, along with 11 other militants, was killed on January 1 when security forces laid siege on their compound on an intelligence tip-off in the Karmina area in Landi Kotal Tehsil of the Khyber agency. Qari Kamran was believed to be a mastermind behind various deadly attacks against security forces across the country. He also allegedly orchestrated the May 2011 twin suicide attacks in the Shabqadar training center that killed more than 90 recruits.

These slain FC personnel had been kidnapped on December 22 from a Mullazai area of the District Tank when a heavily guarded fortress was overrun by dozens of militants at midnight. After the attack, the militants managed to steal huge caches of arms, ammunition and other equipment from the fort. Later, the TTP spokesman claimed responsibility for the brazen attack and vowed to kill all the abductees. It is pertinent to mention that these slain security men also hailed from Khyber agency.

In the end of the statement it says that soon the group will release a footage of the incident.

The abductees hail from the anti-Taliban Mamoond tribe who have formed an armed militia to drive the Taliban out from their respective areas in the Bajur agency. Their co-operation with the Pakistan military played a decisive role in clearing the area of the Taliban and inflicted a severe blow to the Taliban influence there.

Initially, the Taliban retaliated, demanding the release of their comrades in government custody. But both the local government officials and Taliban sources are now claiming that these young men were released unconditionally.

Taliban central spokesman, Ihsanullah Ihsan, while confirming their release, said that the Taliban Shura (advisory council) decided to set them free unconditionally and in good will. According to local sources, 11 managed to escape in the past few months and the remaining 17 were released on Tuesday. “They are well and now with their families,” a local journalist told AC.

Bajur was once a stronghold of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan-based outlawed militant outfit. The region was under virtual control of TTP deputy chief, Molvi Faqir Muhammd. But after persistent military operations and resistance from the local population, militants were left with no option but to flee the area and took refuge in the eastern Kunar province, across the border in Afghanistan.

Pakistani authorities have consistently been accusing the Afghan government and NATO forces for failing to stop these militants from carrying out attacks from their Afghan bases in the Pak-Afghan border regions of Bajur, Mohmand, Dir, and Chitral. Militants in the recent past have conducted various attacks against security forces and local anti-Taliban tribes killing dozens of troops and members of local private militias.

According to Daily Dawn quoting a local Taliban commander Asmatullah, the attack was meant to avenge the death of Taliban commanders in a CIA operated Drone strike in Sararogah area of South Waziristan.

Subsequently, security forces launched a search operation to rescue the missing soldiers but so far no report of their recovery has received. It is believed that they were taken into militants’ traditional safe heavens in adjacent tribal area.

The second incident took place in early hours on Saturday, when a suicide bomber rammed his explosive-laden vehicle into another FC check post on main Bunnu-Miranshah road killing 9 paramilitary personnel. According to local sources, the building has become severely damaged in the attack.

The Frontier Constabulary, a paramilitary force usually placed at the front to fight miscreants in Pakistan semi-autonomous Tribal region. In past nine years, it has suffered a substantial loss in the hands of militants across the country.

Ihsanullah Ihsan, a central spokesman for outlawed Tehrik-e-Taliban claimed responsibility for both the attacks and vowed to carry out more attacks in the future if the security forces fail to stop attacking them.

The attacks have been carried out at a time when reports are being surfaced in both local and foreign media about peace talks between Pakistani Taliban and the government. This new deadly spate of attacks by militants would certainly jeopardize these peace talks if any.

Meanwhile, persistent clashes have been taking place in Kurram and Orakzai tribal regions between security forces and the Taliban for past two months. Both sides have been claiming inflicting huge loss to each other. Pertinent to mention this that both the regions were claimed cleared of the militants by the government in recent past in the wake of military operations.

This abrupt resurgence of militants in a time when the Pakistan has already been passing through a worst political and economic mayhem would further deteriorate the situation.

Further, the area where these deposits were discovered has been a centre of Afghan national resistance since the first Anglo-Afghan War (1838-1842). It is being controlled by the murderous Haqqani network and has been used as a launching pad for attacks in Kabul since 2005. Therefore, any attempt to extract these hidden treasures without local consent will certainly develop a perception in people’s minds about the plundering of their resources. Ghazni is a multi-ethnic province populated by a majority of Pashtuns with a fair number of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. If not handled properly, it can possibly spark a new wave of resource-driven ethnic violence in the province.

It is widely believed by leading Afghan affairs experts that this revelation might be aimed at inducing the shattered Afghan war alliance to stay on in Afghanistan and be rewarded through access to these riches.

The situation seems conducive for Pakistan as well. It can play a vital role in the extraction of these untapped resources by offering assistance in terms of skilled mining labor, telecommunications, roads, rail, ports and shipping facilities, mining town development, dams, mining fuel supplies and security.

Neighboring India and Iran would certainly attempt to exploit this opportunity. Both have been involved in developing mega infrastructure projects in the country since the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001. Both have even carried out joint ventures including the 200 km long Delaram-Zaranj Highway, an $85 million project that extends from Zaranj on the Iranian border to the main road between the cities of Herat, Kandahar and Kabul.

Indian companies are working in various sectors including the construction of roads, dams, schools and hospitals, power transmission lines, tube-wells and even public toilets — basically everything encompassing urgent human needs.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, the dilemma is that it has always relied on military means to pursue objectives in Afghanistan. Its long-sought ‘strategic depth’ theory might also be achieved through strong socio-economic ties. The projects that can help the people to flourish have always been brushed aside. For instance, the proposed Peshawar-Jalalabad railway track is of vital geo-economic interest for Pakistan but remains pending due to our bureaucratic sloth and mismanagement. The line could be extended to neighbouring Ghazni province, a future mining hotbed of the country.

The Taliban-led insurgency is another key reason that work could be hindered on the project. The insurgency, which was initially confined to the country’s southeast, is now making inroads into the relatively calm north and west. The Taliban has already warned foreign companies of dire consequences if they fail to refrain from entering into mineral mining contracts with the Karzai administration.

Afghanistan’s economy largely depends on poppy production and it accounts for 53 percent of the country’s GDP. The country has also been a top ranking illicit drug exporter since the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001. The development of the mining industry would provide an alternative source of income to the impoverished Afghan society and would eventually lead to the eradication of poppy cultivation from Afghan soil.

Since the beginning of the great game, Afghanistan has been ruthlessly used as a proxy by both regional and global players for their geo-strategic and geo-political interests against their opponents. Today, the world is faced with the challenges of terrorism and drug trafficking, which is the ultimate outcome of the injustices committed against the Afghans in the past.

Consequently, with the emergence of the report, the Afghan government hastily dispatched its minister for mines, Mr Wahidullah Shahrani, to the UK in order to get signed deals with European mining firms. The Afghan government is also considering bringing Indians into the business. Just one day after the surfacing of the mineral revelation, Mr Shahrani visited India and had a detailed meeting with his Indian counterpart B K Handique. After the meeting, Mr Handique told reporters in New Delhi, “Everybody is now talking of the potential in Afghanistan. We are also equally keen to tap that opportunity. And India is a natural partner for them.”

On the other hand, despite all these developments, the fear persists in the common Afghan’s mind that in the prevailing circumstances, it would only feed the voracious appetite of the resource-hungry West and its local cohorts.

The question arises: will these lucrative discoveries be used for the socio-economic good of Afghan society? In the contemporary environment, the answer is simply “no”. Poor governance, rapidly escalating insurgency, rampant corruption and tribal favoritism are factors that have severely undermined the Karzai administration’s ability to bring stability, prosperity and development to the country in the past 10 years.

In this context, the Afghan mining ministry is no exception. Just last year, grave allegations surfaced against the then Afghan minister of mines, Mohammad Ibrahim Adel for receiving a $ 30 million bribe from a Chinese firm in Dubai for awarding the country’s largest copper extraction contract in Logar province.

Answering a frequently asked question by the media during his UK visit, Mr Shahrani vowed, “In future, whatever contracts would be awarded, all the information will be published to make sure that we achieve high standards of transparency.”

Read Part 2 of this story here

The incident originally took place almost three months ago when a bus of Hazara Shias pilgrims came under attack on September 20, killing 26 passengers, while carrying them for their pilgrimage of Shia Muslims’ holiest places in Iran.

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a banned militant anti-Shia outfit, with deep links with Al-Qaeda and other regional Sunni militant organizations, later claimed responsibility for the attack in telephone calls to local media outlets. The group, with its lethal suicide squad, is believed to be responsible for orchestrating numerous deadly attacks against Shias across Pakistan. The group was also accused by the Afghan authorities for the recent twin attacks against minority Shias in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif on the 10^th of Muharram.

Sectarian violence has been bedeviling Pakistan since the late 70s when two epic developments started taking place in the region; the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Khomeini-led radical Shia revolution in Iran. Since then, thousands of Shias and Sunnis have lost their lives in Pakistan.

The situation deteriorated when Iran and Saudi Arabia, settling scores with each other on ideological grounds, stared patronizing their respective ideological proxies. These groups were nurtured by both countries in order to deter each other’s influence in Pakistan.

Quetta, the provincial capital of Pakistan’s largest province Balochistan, has seen some of the worst incidents of sectarian violence in the recent past. Hundreds of Hazaras, predominantly Shias, have been killed in a series of bomb blasts and targeted killings in Quetta and its suburbs.

Dramatically, sectarian violence escalated when the Mushraf regime imposed a ban on militant sectarian organizations hailing both from Sunni and Shia schools of thought in 2001, followed by in 2002. The steps taken by the authorities to curb this menace seems futile so far.

Dr Weinstein was kidnapped on gunpoint on August 13 from his residence in upscale Model Town of Provincial capital Lahore after the abductors overpowered his four guards. At the time of kidnapping,  he was serving as chief of party for JAA (J E Austin Associates) on the Pakistan Initiative for Strategic Development and Competitiveness.

In the statement, Al-Zawahiri spelled out a series of demands to the US government for the safe release of Weinstein. The demands include halting US attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia and Gaza; release of Al-Qaida prisoners including 1 convicts of the World Trade center bombing; release of family members of his predecessor Osama bin Laden; closure of Guantanamo Bay and other secret prisons; and allowing trade between Egypt and Gaza.

Weinstein has a doctorate in international law and economics, is a Fulbright Scholar with 25 years of experience in international development projects who speaks six foreign languages and is well known among donor agencies.

“A former employee and a current contractor working with the U.S. government in its aid program to Pakistan, which aims to fight the jihad in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and just like the Americans arrest any suspect linked to al Qaeda and the Taliban, even if they were far related, we detained this man who is neck-deep in American aid to Pakistan since the seventies,” al-Zawahiri said in a statement translated by the SITE Intelligence group.

Addressing Weinstein’s family, Zawahiri said, “your government tortures our prisoners, but we have not tortured your prisoner.” He added: “Your government signed the Geneva Conventions, and then threw it in the rubbish bin, and even though we did not sign the Geneva Conventions, we are honoring your prisoner.”

Kidnappings for ransom have become a lucrative business for the extremist organizations to raise funds to further their activities and agendas. Pakistan based Taliban, commonly known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), too holds number of hostages both local and foreigners and has been demanding prisoner exchanges as well as huge ransoms. Recently the group released footage of abducted Swiss couple to local media outlets. AC had also got the exclusive footage- http://asiancorrespondent.com/68139/pakistani-taliban-release-videos-of-abducted-swiss-couple/

In a telephone conversation with local media outlets, a so-called spokesman for Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed the responsibility of killing 40 security personnel. He further vowed that they would continue attacking the paramilitary forces deployed in the area if their demands were not meet. Baloch separatists have long been demanding a separate homeland for the Baloch nation under the pretext of securing their rights.

Resource-rich Balochistan province has witnessed a series of armed resistances in past 60 years. In response, scores of military operations were launched by successive Pakistani governments to quell the insurgency.

The area has been a victim of state negligence since the very inception of Pakistan. The recent spate of insurgency, more lethal and deep rooted then the previous ones, began when a prominent Baloch tribal chieftain and former governor of the province, Nawab Akbar Khan Buggti, was killed in a military operation during the Musharraf regime in 2006. His tragic death suddenly made him a symbol of Baloch national resistance and now every year his death anniversary is commemorated by Baloch nationalists as a national day of mourning across the province. His death, no doubt, gave new life to the once dead Baloch separatist-led insurgency which has now taken the entire province in a grip of unending violence.

The Pakistani government has persistently been blaming India for fomenting violence in Balochistan in order to destabilize Pakistan. Buggti too was blamed by the authorities for leading separatist movement inside the country with foreign support. In a recent verdict, Balochistan High Courts issued arrest warrant of former president Pervez Musharraf, and Prime Minister, Shukat Aziz for their alleged involvement in Buggti’s assassination. The move is being seen as an attempt to relieve the Baloch’s growing frustration towards central government. Though the current government has announced a multi-billion rupee Balochistan rights package to alleviate the province’s discontent, there has been little improvement.

In recent months a dramatic increase has been seen in violence in the region. Baloch militants’ battle tactics demonstrates that they have started mimicking tactics of Pakistani Taliban, e.g., the use of IEDs has been increased rampantly in their attacks against the security forces.

Attack on Nato fuel tankers in Balochistan, Southwest Pakistan.

It is estimated that nearly 250 container trucks and tankers loaded with military hardware, fuel, food and medical stuff leave Karachi port for Afghanistan to satisfy the voracious appetite of thousands of Allied forces on daily basis. These trucks owner receive Rs90,000 to Rs120,000 for each trip. Meanwhile, local media reports that truck owners have also been involved in plundering loaded trucks destined for Coalition forces in Afghanistan.

One of the major causes of Soviets’ defeat in Afghanistan was their failure to preserve their supply-lines from growing Mujahideen raids. Soviets’ main supply route ran through famed Salang Highway which links Kabul with former Soviet city of Termez in Tajikistan. Some highly successful raids were carried out by veteran Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Masood led Panjsheri militants on Soviets supply convoys passing through this route.

Pakistani law enforcement agencies seem unable to contain these attacks as they have already been engaged in counter-insurgency operations across FATA and KP. However, one of the main objectives behind military operations in Khyber Agency against militants was to secure NATO supply line from day to day raids of the militants.

Afghanistan’s rugged mountainous terrain, landlocked geographical location, harsh weather and most vitally the intense resistive nature of its inhabitants has always made it a hard bite to swallow for all the invading forces.

These recent attacks on Coalition’s logistic line across Pakistan triggered Western military planners to find out another transit route bypassing Pakistan. But they have fewer options. The other alternative supply route to Afghanistan passes through Russia and Central Asia. A ‘Central Route’, which would go through Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and then into Afghanistan is also being discussed. Presently, only 25% supply comes into Afghanistan via air using Russian air space.

But Americans and their European allies are still reluctant as they do not want to bring Russia back to a region from where it was forcibly ousted in 1989 as a result of decade-long western-sponsored Afghan national resistance. They also don’t want to be a victim of Moscow diktats and blackmailing in future. Russia, in its conflict with Georgia had threatened to suspend an agreement struck in April, 2008 allowing NATO to take supplies and equipment to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia. Meanwhile, northern routes are longer, more expensive, much difficult, largely landlocked and under Russian influence.

Safety of these supply routes is vital for the Coalition forces’ military operations against Taliban in Afghanistan. Especially, after the surge in US troops in most restive parts of the country; Helmand and Kandahar will certainly need a more secure, easy and swift flow of supplies. Taliban have intensified their ambushes on allied forces’ supply convoys inside Afghanistan, mimicking tactics used against the British in 1841 and the Soviet Union two decades ago.

Secure and swift flow of supplies has vital strategic significance and is considered the life-line for troops combating insurgency. The disruption of the flow of supplies to a combating army would certainly undermine their ability to fight effectively.

Trucks carrying supplies for NATO troops in Afghanistan via Pakistani border town, Chaman. Pic AP

All great warriors throughout history have carefully planned their strategies around logistics and supplies. Alexander the Great once said, “My logisticians are a humourless lot – they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” On the other hand, 18th century’s French military conqueror Napoleon Bonaparte said, “An army marches on its stomach.” In an asymmetric warfare the guerrillas’ main objective is to disrupt the enemy’s supply lines in order to undermine its operational ability

Supply to Afghanistan has never been an easy task. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and heavily depends on neighbouring Pakistan for its imports and exports. According to Bruce Riedel, a former CIA agent and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, “Afghanistan is a landlocked country. Everything we (Coalition troops) want to use to eat, drink and shoot has to come in from outside.”

It is estimated that 75% of NATO supplies from food to fuel, and heavy military equipments enter through Karachi sea port. Then there are two land routes used for their further transportation to Afghanistan – 70% through the volatile Khyber Pass and the remaining 30% via Chaman crossing in Baluchistan.

The ongoing spate of coordinated attacks by outlawed TTP-linked militants on NATO vulnerable supply convoys and terminals across Pakistan are seriously affecting its military operations in Afghanistan. These attacks were well-planned and executed finely. The police, paramilitary Frontier Constabulary (FC) and Rangers were taken aback and could not manage to thwart these attacks.

Ironically, attacks on coalition logistics have become a lucrative business for insurgents both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Looted goods from NATO-bound supply convoys are ending up in markets in the lawless tribal belt – most noteworthy the famous Karkhano, Miranshah and Bara markets – where one can find a variety of looted goods including arms and ammunition, medical equipment, office supplies and even frozen food items at low prices.

Just last year three Afghan currency laden container trucks were hijacked by local outlaws in Landi Kotal, Khyber Agency, which were later on recovered by the political administration after immense pressure from US and Afghan governments.

Maulana Fazalur Rehman (left), addresses a public rally.

However, he along with other delegates, vehemently extended his support to the Afghan Taliban led resistance against international coalition and the Karzai government in Afghanistan: “We cannot impose our opinion on Afghan people and they have a right to fight. We believe that Afghan Taliban’s war is in self defense, for the defense of their religion and freedom. Thus this makes their struggle as legitimate resistance against the aggressor.”

Meanwhile, the conference passed a resolution paying great homage to the slain Libyan dictator Mumar Qaddafi: “His death, in the hands of imperialist forces and their local stooges is indeed a great loss for the entire Umma. He was given this punishment for his decade long anti-West stance. He is a martyr and we sternly condemn his killing.”

The conference was attended by a large number of delegates from across the country, mainly from the Deobandi school of thought, from which the majority of the Taliban hail from. It is pertinent to mention that Muamar Qadafi and his son, Saiful Islam Qadafi, were major overseas donors for JUI-F-run religious seminaries across Pakistan. Saiful Islam Qadafi even paid a visit to Fazal-u-Raman’s hometown, Dera Ismail Khan, to inaugurate a madrassa.

Mulana Fazal Rahman has been attacked twice in the recent past, purportedly by some elements from within Taliban, for his vocal anti-Pakistani Taliban stance. His new remarks may antagonize the Pakistani Taliban, who have been fighting the state for past 9 years under the pretext of establishing Sharia in the country. Though the Pakistani government have made substantial gains against them, they are still present in pockets across the tribal region. On the hand, the US has intensified its drones campaign against the Taliban in south and north Waziristan agencies, thus halting their activities to the core. On Thursday, a CIA-operated drone strike killed the younger brother of a prominent Pakistani Taliban chief, Mulla Nazeer Ahmad, along with three other leading commanders of his group in Wana-sub division of the South Waziristan Agency.

Footage of Kidnapped Swiss Couple Released“This is a an announcement for the Swiss government, but also for the Pakistan government and American government, we are still in danger here-please let go miss Afia Siddique from America. Please also let go the prisoners the Pakistan have from the Taliban-let them go because we are in danger. We have much problems. If you don’t make what these persons want-it will be possible that we will die” he says in the footage.

Swiss national David Olivier, 31, and Widmar Daniela, 29, were abducted by unknown gunmen in Loralai district of southern Pakistani Baluchistan province, on July 1. The couple was travelling from Dera Ghazi Khan, Punjab to leave for provincial capital, Quetta when some unidentified masked men kidnapped them on gunpoint at a small village known as Killi Nigah.

Weeks after their abduction, Pakistani Taliban commander, Wali-u-Rahman contacted local media outlets and claimed responsibility for their kidnappings. He demanded that the couple would be freed only if US government releases Dr.Afia Siddequee. Dr.Afia is imprisoned for 86 years in US jail, for her alleged plot to assassinate a US soldier in Afghanistan. It is worth mentioning that Kidnappings have become vital source for the militants across AfPak to meet their demands for huge ransom and prisoners swap.

Swiss CoupleThe Swiss authorities, has already made it clear that they would not negotiate with any militant organization at any level. “We are only in contact with Pakistani officials for the release of our citizens,” said a Swiss Embassy spokesperson in Islamabad in an interview with Express Tribune.

According to Taliban sources, the couple is in good health and has been kept in South Waziristan, one of the most restive parts of Pakistan semi-autonomous tribal region and has been looking after by Wali-u-Rahman led militant faction.

Initially Pakistan security authorities had ruled out the possibility of Taliban’s involvement and blamed local gangs behind their abduction. But the emergence of the video would certainly provide them the direction to engage Taliban to pave the way for their safe release.

Relations became strained between the “strategic partners” when recently the departed US military chief, Michael Mullen, blatantly accused Pakistani intelligence agencies for assisting the  Haqqanis in the attack on the US embassy in Kabul last month. US military officials have persistently expressed,“strategic impatience” over Pakistan’s reluctance to take on the militants in North Waziristan.

In an interview with Bloomberg News on Monday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Pakistan of dire consequences if it fails to contain the militants operating on its soil. But during her recent visit to Pakistan local media has widely reported, quoting both anonymous US and Pakistani officials, that she gave green signals to the Pakistan military establishment to reach out to Haqqanis for peace talks in order to pave the way for a gradual drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan. It appears the US has realized that Taliban battle will not be easily won and every step the former has taken in the past nine years to eliminate the latter has proved futile. Now their entire focus has been shifted to isolating the less harmful Taliban from Al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, the situation is rapidly changing in FATA. A group of Pakistani Taliban, under the leadership of dreaded Swati Taliban chief Mulla Fazalullah, have established safe havens across the border in Afghanistan and have been persistently attacking Pakistan troops deployed on the Pak-Afghan border. Meanwhile, the Pakistan army is engaged in sustaining “postwar stability operation” in insurgency ravaged South Waziristan, Mohmand, Orakzai, Khyber agencies, and FR Dara Adam Khel. Even Malakand division has not yet been completely stabilized. Under these circumstances, an offensive in North Waziristan agency is fraught with grave risks and could turn into a strategic nightmare for the Pakistan government.

Pakistan’s past ill-devised and inconclusive counter-insurgency policies led  to small and scattered militants’ organizations joining forces to combat a common foe – the Pakistan Army.

Pakistan has to be ready to bear the brunt of any operation in North Waziristan. It could either bring an end to the decade-long murderous insurgency or undo the progress made against the militants in rest of tribal area and Malakand division. The operation will also decisively decide the fate of future courses of action in Afghanistan.

A Taliban fighter with RPG.

Reports suggest that the government is ready to drop the condition of disarming the militants before entering into negotiations. This paradigm shift in Pakistan policy vis-à-vis the Taliban comes amid strained relations with the United States. The Pakistani government seems intent on bringing an end to an almost decade-long insurgency where the human and financial cost has been heavy.

Last month’s All Parties Conference (APC), held in Islamabad in the wake of American allegations that Pakistan spy agency (ISI) is assisting and harboring the Haqqani Network, also urged for reaching out to the militants to ensure peace in the country.

“Pakistan must initiate dialogue with a view to negotiating peace with our own people in the tribal areas and a proper mechanism to achieve this goal must be put in place,” reads a resolution adopted at the conclusion of this conference held on September 29.

Pakistan has long been seeking to persuade TTP to get rid of foreign fighters who have been given refuge by the Pakistani Taliban in the area after the Taliban regime of Afghanistan was toppled by the United States. These talks are at preliminary stage and likely to take time to reach a logical end. Imran Khan, a cricketer turned politician and a vocal preacher of peace talks with the Taliban, revealed in a local TV talk show that Pakistan’s Army Chief Ashfaq Perviz Kiani clearly stated during the APC that the substantial gains made against the militants could be reversed if a political solution to the problem was not found.

Meanwhile, a huge deployment of coalition troops has been seen in Khost, Afghanistan, next to Pakistan’s North Waziristan region. The border has been sealed on the Ghulam Khan border crossing with Afghanistan for an unidentified period. Both aerial and ground patrols have been increased and new military barracks have been seen under construction in the border towns of Gurbaz and Nawia Adda.

While the International Coalition is presenting the mobilization of troops as a strategic move to stem the cross-border movements of insurgents, particularly the Haqqani Network, local tribesmen and defense analysts believe that this abrupt development might end up in cross border raids in North Waziristan against the suspected hideouts of the Haqqani Network.

Pakistan has never conducted any military operations against the Taliban in North Waziristan – one of America’s main complaints.

“They are sending a clear signal to Pakistan that along with the escalating drone strikes against Haqqani Network and its local affiliates, Americans are keeping all options open, including ground assaults like the May 2 Abbotabad operation, if needed,” said Abdul Basit, a defense analyst affiliated with the Islamabad based Think Tank, PIPS.

The massive deployment of coalition troops has made the residents of North Waziristan fearful. “We have already been under virtual occupation and if Americans attack, that would further worsen the situation. This whole drama is being played at our cost,” a local elder told AC via telephone from Miranshah, the administrative headquarter of North Waziristan.

Analysts believe that such measures are actually tactical shift by Pakistan and the United States to take care of each other’s interests.

“Pakistan has been demanding both the US and Afghan authorities to crack down against TTP hideouts in Afghanistan and to stop cross border attacks of Afghanistan based Pakistani outfits, and the US, with this new move, is pushing Pakistan to stop incursions of Haqqani militants into Afghanistan,” Abdul Basit added.

The challenge ahead for Pakistan’s security forces in the war against the Pakistani Taliban is to consolidate their positions and extend their presence to the far-flung areas of the agency where the Taliban are still present in pockets, running their camps and planning their attacks both in South Waziristan and rest of the country.

Hundreds of thousands of locals fled their respective areas in the wake of military operations against Taliban. Pic. Getty Images

Developing infrastructure, establishing Reconstruction and Opportunity Zones, and creating jobs by capacity building for the youth of militancy-hit area are decisive factors in counter-insurgency (COIN) operations. Relying merely on the use of force to fight this menace makes it knotty and convoluted. Here, the commendable aspect of the operation, “Rah-e-Nejat” (Path to salvation) is that unlike rest of operations in FATA and Malakand Division where entire focus was drawn on military means to root out militants, it was two pronged – it combined the military operation with re-construction of the “war affected area”. As a result, not only Taliban were driven from their hotbed but comprehensive developmental work is also under way. A network of road infrastructure has been under construction since cessation of the operation. Small dam projects are also in the pipeline.

An estimated 75% people of the area are dependent on livestock or agriculture related business for their livelihood. The government should take immediate steps to facilitate local farmers and gardeners who suffered the most, by providing cost-free seeds, fertilizers and farming tools and kits, etc. Irrigation systems, farmer training centers and animal husbandry hospitals must be established in the area to introduce modern techniques in farming and the livestock rearing sector. These are the remedies which will work wonders if properly utilized.

One of the mega dam projects, Gomal Zam Dam, is nearly completed. The land for the dam has been voluntarily allocated by Mehsud and Wazir tribes of South Waziristan Agency. But once again, they were ignored and despite compensating them, the real benefits and incentives including job quota, irrigation canals, power grid station, etc. have been granted to non-locals. This unfair distribution has caused serious resentments among the natives. The government must exploit the opportunities and provide jobs to the local youth and let them play their due role in nation-building. Most importantly, it would deter them from joining the militants’ ranks.

But all these steps will remain futile if the government fails to re-settle Waziristan’s refugees in their respective areas. Tribal people have their own distinct culture and traditions and it becomes very difficult for them to assimilate into non-tribal society. On the other hand, the government has failed to provide Waziristan IDPs with the same treatment as rendered to Malakand IDPs. This unfair treatment and negligence instilled a sense of deprivation and alienation in their minds. The situation demands extra-careful handling as it could possibly set off a new wave of violence in the area.

It has become evident that use of force has never been a solution to tackle militancy until the basic needs and rights of the dwellers have been addressed. The area has been denied of its basic rights since the very inception of our motherland. The tried and true strategy is to bring change in people’s lives. This is the sole remedy that would certainly work wonders. The time has come to make up for any follies committed in the past.

Hundreds of thousands of locals fled their respective areas in the wake of military operations against Taliban. Pic. Getty Images

Poor tribesmen have become the ultimate victims in the past nine years of conflict between the army and militants. They have seen nothing but death and destruction. They have lost loved ones, property, livestock and most importantly the area where they have lived for centuries. They have endured three respective displacements linked to military actions against the Taliban – 2004, 2008 and the present one.

Their past was neglected, their present is in jeopardy and their future seems to be uncertain and murky. Recently, searching on Google Earth’s satellite map, nearly 70 percent of their houses appear to have been completely demolished or were at least partially affected in the years long conflict.

These tribesmen are caught between a rock and hard place. On one side, the government has not only failed to provide them with proper treatment during their displacement period but also using delaying tactics about sending them back. Meanwhile, the Taliban in South Waziristan is circulating menacing pamphlets in adjacent districts of Tank, D.I Khan and Bunnu, where the majority of the IDPs are settled, threatening them with dire consequences if they opt for going back. Another chilly winter has begun and these people must now contend with the severity of nature as well.

The much-hyped operation Rah-e-Nejat in South Waziristan aimed to eliminate the very spearhead of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and provide the local residents a tranquil environment. Yet one year on the area has not yet been completely purged of the militants. Local sources are reporting persistent clashes between security forces and militants in far flung areas of the agency.

Nevertheless, credit goes to Pakistan Army for recovering some of the area from militants amid hostile terrain and harsh weather.

A Pakistani soldier search a militants' compound in Bajur. Pic: AP.

Initially, the Pakistan army, a conventionally trained force with little guerrilla warfare know-how, was trapped, and it suffered huge losses while fighting against the militants in South as well as North Waziristan. But the years-long warfare has given it plenty opportunity to improve its counter-insurgency skills.

Mao told his fighters while quoting Sun Tzu:

To gain territory is no cause for joy,
To lose territory is no cause for sorrow.

In the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), the areas once claimed to be cleared of militants as a result of massive military operations have again fallen into their hands. We are noticing that South Waziristan is once again becoming a militants’ base. Militants are persistently claiming to have re-established training camps in the area. During operation Rah-e-Rasat in Malakand division, militants were ruthlessly wiped out when they confronted security forces in pitched battles. Learning from that debacle, the Taliban in South Waziristan opted for “retreat and advance” tactics – a classic guerrilla doctrine given by Sun Tzu.

Meanwhile, the most worrisome aspect that will certainly have far-reaching implications for Pakistan vis-à-vis fighting insurgency are the reports that the Afghan Taliban have not only provided Pakistani Taliban a base in Kunar and Nuristan provinces but have openly started supporting them in their fight against Pakistani security forces. The recent attacks in Bajur, Upper Dir, Chitral and Mohmand would have certainly shaken segments of Pakistani establishment who always denied Pakistani Taliban links with Afghan Taliban. It is pertinent to mention that half of the Pakistani Taliban leadership, including Molvi Faqir Muhammad, Mulla Fazalullah, Omer Khalid and Dadullah, have been living in Kunar province after evading military offensives in their respective strongholds in FATA and Malakand division.

It is widely believed among all war experts that in guerrilla war, gaining control of territory has little strategic significance unless guerrillas’ safe heavens and supply lines are neutralized. The Sri Lankan anti-LTTE offensive is a classic example where a decades-long insurgency was tackled in months after security forces managed to dismantle rebels’ supply lines and hideouts.

In Pakistan’s case, this was quite feasible in the initial years when the threat was limited in space and strength. But now it would be relatively difficult to defuse it after it has established roots across Pakistan and has safe havens in Afghanistan.

The situation is getting more gruesome with each passing day. Past seven years have proved a hideous nightmare for Pakistan. Beleaguered leadership, poor governance, rampant corruption, redundant foreign dictation – hallmarks of the Karzai administration in Afghanistan are now making inroads in Pakistan. If this continues, then nothing will hinder Pakistan from becoming another Afghanistan. It was quixotically hoped that the commencement of a democratic set-up would usher in an era of stability, accountability and rule of law in the country, which are still a requirement of our land.

The operation was aimed at flushing out commander Naik Muhammad Wazir’s small group of both local and foreign militants who had taken refuge there after the demise of Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. That was the moment that gave birth to the phenomenon of the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistani Taliban pose a grave threat to the country's security.

At the time, the threat could have been neutralized once and for all due to its limited nature, but poor-intelligence, snubbing local people’s consent, underestimating the enemy’s strength and professional arrogance prevented that from happening.  The threat that could have been taken out in days is still there nine years later, and there is no end in sight.

The spiraling cost of war has paralyzed the entire state’s function, leaving everything higgledy-piggledy. Pakistan has suffered and continues to suffer enormously from terrorism and since 9/11, according to Pakistani government’s estimates, there have been 300 suicide attacks killing 35,000 civilians and 3,000 security personnel while inflicting $65 billion in losses to our economy. That’s more than the cost of the three major wars we fought against India.

Unfortunately, our government always calculates Taliban’s might in numerical and material strength. The thing that has made this unwinnable so far is their strict adherence to their self-derived ideology. The Taliban’s leadership has imbued their fighters with a rigid ideology, and they will blow themselves up if it serves the cause. Throughout history, in almost every guerrilla struggle, ideology has played pivotal and decisive role. It establishes conviction, motivation and dedication in fighters for the cause. If ideology is feeble and brittle, a guerrilla struggle will soon die.

The Pakistani Taliban have one clear distinction from their Afghan counterparts. The latter had to fight against weak, decentralized and mostly private militias of war-cum-drug lords, who were facing strong antipathy from the public for their heinous acts. The former, however, have been fighting against a well-organized, well-trained, well-equipped army for the past nine years. They not only confronted Pakistan’s army in the tribal belt, but also went deeper by striking at nerve centers across the country. Despite launching operation after operation to get rid of the menace, they remained successful in preserving their strength. When driven out from one place, they took hideouts in another.

Mulla Nazeer, left, seen here in South Waziristan.

“If it happens then it will be an Islamic obligation upon all Pakistani Muslims to launch Jihad against the Americans but we don’t think Americans are in a position to carry out a ground assault in North Waziristan as we have badly trapped them on Afghan soil,” Mualana asserted. He also added that their central Shura (council) is closely monitoring the rapidly developing situation and their Amir (leader) is in constant contact with other Taliban factions in Afghanistan.

Another militant commander based in South Waziristan, on condition of anonymity, mockingly told AC: “We are ready to give them a warm welcome but first we need to be extra careful of their allies [Pakistani troops deployed in the area] as they might stab us in the back.”

Some leading analysts believe the Kabul embassy attack might be a retaliatory move by the Pakistan intelligence to settle scores with the Americans for failing to stop the recent cross border attacks of Pakistani Taliban on border check posts of its paramilitary force. North-Eastern Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan have become new bases for Pakistani Taliban who took refuge there after fleeing their respective regions in the wake of Pakistan army’s operations.

Recently, relations took a downturn between the United States and Pakistan, after a blatant statement of outgoing U.S. Joint Chief of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, in which he accused Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, the ISI, of assisting Haqqani Network’s September 13 attack on US Embassy in Afghan capital Kabul.

Meanwhile, on Friday, a CIA-led drone strike in Baghar Cheena area of Wana — the administrative headquarters of South Waziristan Agency — targeted a vehicle carrying a prominent commander of Mulla Nazeer’s group, Haleemullah Tozi Khel. The attack killed Haleemullah on the spot, along with three other militants.

Haleemullah Tozi Khel, a close aide to Mullah Nazeer, was believed to be a frontman in organizing cross border attacks against coalition forces in Afghan Paktika and Paktiya provinces. His death is considered a major blow to the Nazeer group.

Salafi ideology is known for its rigid Islamic interpretations denying the spiritual aspects of the religion despite the fact that spiritual saints and sufis played pivotal role in spreading Islam in the subcontinent.

Meanwhile, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al-Alami, (LeJA), a formidable offshoot of al-Qaeda in Pakistan, responsible for orchestrating some of the most devastating attacks against civilian and military installations across the country, too consisted of members from Salafid School of Thought. The majority of LeJA’s members consist of those militants who defected Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaisah-e-Muhammad, Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (these groups are believed to be nurtured under the official patronage to use them as proxies against Indian forces in Indian Held Kashmir in ’90s) etc. in the wake of military operations in the country’s Northwest against the fleeing member of Taliban and Al-Qaeda during the Musharraf regime.  These defectors include some high profile militant commanders like Doctor Umer Kundi, once a close aide to LeT spiritual leader Hafiz Muhammad Saeed. In February, 2010, Dr. Kundi was killed by law enforcement agencies, during a raid in Faisalabad.

This sectarian division also traces back to Taliban rule in Afghanistan when Deobandi dominated Afghan Taliban, rooted out Ahl-e-Hadith (A subcontinental version of Salafid) Jihadist group, Lashakar-e-Taiba camps from Eastern Khost province and banned their activities across Afghanistan.

TTP suicide squad chief and the brain behind most of the suicide attacks in Pakistan, Qari Hussian Mehsud, too was believed to be more inclined toward Salafid ideology due to his close affiliation with anti Shia sectarian outfits. His death in a US drone strike in October, last year, marked a significant fall in suicide attacks in the country.

Months earlier, reports surfaced in local media that the Pakistani establishment had formally reached out to TTP and other militant outfits active in Pakistan’s Tribal belt for peace negotiations. Both sides exchanged their possible peace terms through Tribal Maliks and prominent religious figures. These also include local parliamentarians from Mulana Fazal-u-Rahman led JUI (F). These talks have been pre-conditionalised by government authorities with the marginalization of Al-Qaeda. It is pertinent to mention that Salafi dominated Al-Qaeda has remained one of the main factors for the failure of peace treaties between the government and Taliban in the past.

Historically, Pak-Afghan relations have never been stabled.

The Soviet collapse was not just a disintegration of a physical entity, rather it resulted in the demise of the communist ideology that ruled one of the largest swaths of the world for nearly seven decades. No single reason, rather series of events, eventually paved the way for disintegration of the Union. The Soviets’ retreat from Afghanistan perhaps proved the final blow to the empire.

In this decades-long global confrontation between the two Gargantuas, latterly described by British author George Orwell as a ‘Cold War’, Pakistan emerged as a key player serving capitalist interests in the region. It worked hand in glove with United States and its western allies in their efforts to contain communist USSR.

Pakistan not only facilitated the USA to establish diplomatic relations with Communist China, just to avert the latter from joining the USSR socialist bloc, but also became a launching pad for decade-long US-sponsored anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan. Pakistan invested a lot but in the end remained empty-handed and a loser.  It inherited a drug-cum-Kalashnikov culture, sectarianism, militancy, a huge bulk of refugees etc. Many believe that the prevailing spate of violence traces back to Soviet-Afghan War.

The presence of Western forces in Afghanistan has been one of the vital factors in destabilizing Pakistan to the core, and is now exporting militancy to neighboring Central Asian Republics (CARs) as well.

Ironically, extremism has been making inroads in the region in general and Pakistan in particular since 9/11. The situation is getting more gruesome with each passing day. It has paralyzed the entire state apparatus. The country’s business is being vitally run on foreign aid, primarily provided by the US. Even the  funding of the military operations since 2004 in the country’s northwest is being paid by the US under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). Uncertainty, agony and suffering prevail everywhere.

On the other hand, the war in Afghanistan is becoming increasing ostracized due to multiple reasons – primarily the spiraling civilian loss in coalition and Afghan forces’ anti-Taliban operations. The Taliban, due to its ruthless past, still have to win the heart and mind of a common Afghan.  In recent interaction with a group of Afghan students hailing from Khost university where the Haqqani network has substantial presence and has orchestrated some of the deadliest attacks in past, when asked about the presence of foreign troops on their soil, they unequivocally replied, “we want both of them (Coalition forces and Taliban) out”.

Peace in Afghanistan indubitably ensures peace in Asia – but with the globalization of world affairs peace in Afghanistan will guarantee peace in the world. The time has come to find a peaceful solution of the Afghan problem. Afghanistan is evolving, Ehsan Bayat launched a cellular network in Afghanistan in 2002.