2013 Bangkok Gubernatorial race: Part 9 – ABAC shows 16 points lead for Pongsapat; NIDA shows 1 point leadBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 26, 2013 2:00PM UTC
BP has blogged the following posts on the 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race in the following date order (earlier are first):
- Part 1: An introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race;
- Part 2: A post looking at the NIDA Polls;
- Part 3: A post looking at Bangkok University and ABAC Polls;
- Part 4: A post looking at a NIDA Poll and ABAC Polls;
- Part 5: A post looking at the latest Bangkok University and Suan Dusit Polls;
- Part 6: A post looking at Baan Somdej polls;
- Part 7: A post looking at ABAC Polls and the last two NIDA Polls; and
- Part 8: A post looking at the final Bangkok University and Suan Dusit Polls
This post will look at the latest (final ?) NIDA and ABAC polls.
Below is the latest NIDA Poll plotted on a chart together with the previous polls:
- NIDA Poll (Dec 20-21) that surveyed 1,254 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll(Dec 25-26) that surveyed 557 people in 7 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Dec 25-Jan 4) that surveyed 3,356 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll(Jan 17-19) that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Jan 23-26) that surveyed 1,503 pople in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Feb 5-6) that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts;
- NIDA Poll (Feb 12-13) that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts; and
- NIDA Poll (Feb 18-19) that surveyed 1,485 people in all 50 Districts.
1. Lead down to 1% although both are up with the number of undecided voters dropping.
2. As mentioned yesterday regarding the Bangkok University Poll:
Note the decline in support for Seripisut over successive polls from 12.5% to 4.5%. One of the reasons for the relatively good success (in terms of getting a high % of votes) of independent candidates in past election is the high calibre of the candidates. They usually have been good at speaking or getting their points/policies across. Seripisut is not a good public speaker.
It is almost identical for the NIDA Poll with Seripisut dropping from 13.32% to 4.58%.
BP has also created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly as shown below:
NOTE: Of course, this is assuming those in the ”undecided” category will vote for candidates in the same proportion as those who have already made up their mind. However, in support of the general accuracy of this assumption is the reality that voter turn-out is unlikely to exceed 60%. Hence, many of the undecideds are likely to be those who won’t vote. In addition, you can take the above as reflecting voter intentions as of the time period of the poll in a more readable way. How the undecideds will vote will also depend on future events so it is hard to know for certain so weighting in another way would be pointless.
The ABAC Polls have been plotted below on a chart together with the 3 previous polls:
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,112 people between December 10-15;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,766 people between January 22-23;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,673 people between January 31-February 2;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 2,518 people between January 31-February 6;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 3,631 people between February 8-12;
- ABAC Poll that surveyed 2,498 people between February 15-18.
BP: So the gap is out to almost 17 points per ABAC which differs greatly from the 1 point gap for the NIDA Poll, but not the Suan Dusit poll blogged yesterday which showed a 14 point gap. In the middle, you have the Bangkok University poll which showed a 7 point gap.
What will the actual result be? Will blog some additional commentary on the state of the race over the coming week.