2013 Bangkok Gubernatorial race: Part 8 – Suan Dusit shows 14 lead for Pongsapat: Bkk Uni shows 7 point leadBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 25, 2013 6:30PM UTC
BP has blogged the following posts on the 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race in the following date order (earlier are first):
- Part 1: An introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race;
- Part 2: A post looking at the NIDA Polls;
- Part 3: A post looking at Bangkok University and ABAC Polls;
- Part 4: A post looking at a NIDA Poll and ABAC Polls;
- Part 5: A post looking at the latest Bangkok University and Suan Dusit Polls;
- Part 6: A post looking at Baan Somdej polls; and
- Part 7: A post looking at ABAC Polls and the last two NIDA Polls;
A. Below is the latest Bangkok University poll plotted on a chart together with the 3 previous polls:
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF) 1,192 people between December 6-10;
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF) 1,607 people between January 21-23;
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF 1,586 people between February 1-5; and
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF) 1,637 people between February 11-17.
Q1: If an election were held today, who would you vote for?
Q2: In the final week, is there a chance you will change your mind?
Q3: Has there been buying of votes in your neighbourhood?
A: Yes, 6.8%
B. No, 72.1%
C. Don’t know, 21.1%
1. “Won’t disclose” is a new category and previously they were just lumped in the “undecided” category. If BP was to hazard a guess, BP would say that more Democrat voters than Puea Thai voters won’t disclose who they would vote for (i.e not trusting the polls or the government) so this means the gap is probably less than what it really is.
2. Both the major candidates are down around .5% each, but the number of voters who know who they will vote for/will say who they will vote for is also up from 24.7% to 28.3%. The gap between the two major candidates is still 7%. The problem for Sukhumbhand is that slight more of his voters are more likely to change their mind than Pongsapat voters.
3. Note the decline in support for Seripisut over successive polls from 12.5% to 4.5%. One of the reasons for the relatively good success (in terms of getting a high % of votes) of independent candidates in past election is the high calibre of the candidates. They usually have been good at speaking or getting their points/policies across. Seripisut is not a good public speaker.
4. Should also note that BP thinks the independent candidates will get at least 15% between them and it is also quite possible that more of the undecideds will go for the third party voters. While the number of voters voting for third party candidates has declined over the last few elections, less than 10% seems unlikely.
B. Below is all the Suan Dusit Polls plotted on a chart:
- Suan Dusit Poll that surveyed 3,214 people between January 26-30;
- Suan Dusit Poll that surveyed 3,410 people between February 2-6;
- Suan Dusit Poll thatsurveyed 3,198 people between February 9-13; and
- Suan Dusit Poll that surveyed 4,393 people between February 14-17
BP: This differs from the Bangkok University Poll – although a later ABAC Poll has a similar result. There has been an increase in the the gap over the past month. Aside from the performance of the candidates, Suan Dusit has faced criticism for the reliability of its polls and that they favour the government -see here, here, and here for the criticism and the critique of the criticism. The more the criticism, the more that Democrat voters are not likely to participate or to state their preference. Nevertheless, even taking that into account and as reflected by other polls, Pongsapat still has a small, comfortable lead which will be difficult for Sukhumhband to make up in the final week.