2013 Bangkok Gubernatorial race: Part 6 – Baan Somdej Poll shows 1 point lead for… SukhumbhandBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 12, 2013 10:00AM UTC
BP has blogged an introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race, a post two weeks ago looking at the NIDA polls, another post two weeks ago looking at Bangkok University and ABAC polls, a post last week looking at a NIDA Poll and ABAC Poll, and a post last week looking at the latest Bangkok University and Suan Dusit polls.
This post will look at two polls from a poll that BP hasn’t blogged on before.*
The polls are as per the below chart:
- Baan Somdej poll surveying 1,487 people between January 17-19;
- Baan Somdej poll surveying 1,160 people between February 4-6.
BP: Some comments:
1. This 1 point lead for Sukhumbhand contrasts with the latest** polls which show as follows:
- Bangkok University: Pongsapat 47.83%; Sukhumbhand 38.45%
- Suan Dusit: Pongsapat 41%; Sukhumbhand 36.12%
- Nida: Pongsapat 23.82%; Sukhumbhand 19.16% (undecideds 48%)
- ABAC: Pongsapat 43.1%; Sukhumbhand 33.1%
BP: Until the election is actually held, we won’t know which pollster is right or wrong, but as you can see Baan Somdej’s poll differs from the others.
2. Seripisut scored very highly in the January 17-19 poll even above Pongsapat.
3. Even though Pongsapat is behind, he as almost doubled his % in the last two weeks, but Sukhumbhand is up only a few. While this poll differs in the overall result compared with the other 4 pollsters, it does also show the trend of Pongsapat increasing his vote total which the other polls show generally as well.
Hence, BP has created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly:
* For both polls, BP can’t find a link to the full details of the poll. The pollster doesn’t appear to have a Web site although they do have a Facebook page linking to various news reports on the polls. Both polls don’t add up to 100% so BP has assumed has created an “others” category (there is not one listed in the news reports). As have never blogged on this pollster before and for lack of the full details of the pools, BP was wondering whether to blog this poll, but the reality is that the second poll has been widely reported already. With the above caveats, it seems better to blog this poll, assess it over the course of this race and see how well the final poll does compared with the actual result.
**Latest being the latest polls that BP has blogged on.