2013 Bangkok Gubernatorial race: Part 5 – BKK Uni poll shows 7 point lead for Pongsapat; Suan Dusit shows 5 point leadBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 08, 2013 2:30AM UTC
BP has blogged an introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race, a post last week looking at the NIDA polls, another post last week looking at Bangkok University and ABAC polls, and a post this week looking at a NIDA Poll and ABAC Poll. This post will look at the latest Bangkok University and Suan Dusit polls.
Below is the latest Bangkok University poll plotted on a chart together with the 2 previous polls:
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF) 1,192 people between December 6-10;
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF) 1,607 people between January 21-23; and
- Bangkok University Poll that surveyed (PDF 1,586 people between February 1-5.
BP: So far when blogging the polling numbers, BP hasn’t blogged some of the other questions, but will try to blog some from now on. There was one question in the Bangkok University poll which asked “Which gubernatorial candidate kao teung the people the most” [“ผู้สมัครผู้ว่าฯ กทม. คนใดเข้าถึงประชาชนมากที่สุด”] . The top 2 were, Pongsapat at 58.9% and Sukhumbhand at 34.3%.
NOTE: Kao teung can be difficult to translate. Sometimes, it is translated as access, but empathy is probably more accurate ….
BP: The number of undecided voters is falling with both major candidates increasing their %, but most of the undecided went to Pongsapat who has opened up a 7 point lead.
Hence, BP has created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly:
NOTE: Of course, this is assuming those in the ”undecided” category will vote for candidates in the same proportion as those who have already made up their mind. However, in support of the general accuracy of this assumption is the reality that voter turn-out is unlikely to exceed 60%. Hence, many of the undecideds are likely to be those who won’t vote. In addition, you can take the above as reflecting voter intentions as of the time period of the poll in a more readable way. How the undecideds will vote will also depend on future events so it is hard to know for certain so weighting in another way would be pointless.
BP: This is a healthy, although not an insurmountable lead for Pongsapat and roughly matches the ABAC poll yesterday
Suan Dusit have finally released a poll where they surveyed 3,214 people between January 26-30.
BP: This is reflected in other polls between Puea Thai and the Democrats with the Democrats usually doing better with women and Puea Thai doing better with men (insert your own joke as to why…)
BP: Not surprising compared with national polling in the past. The Democrats generally do well with younger working voters (i.e 21-30). However, for the university age group and 31-50 age group, Puea Thai are doing quite well.
BP: Again, not too surprising….
BP: Pongsapat does better with civil servants and contractors whereas Sukhumbhand does better with those in the private sector when compared with their total support.
BP: Again, not too surprising. Those earning under 20,000 go for Pongsapat, but those earning over 20,000 go for Sukhumbhand….
Overall, Suan Dusit showing a 5 point gap…
Suan Dusit also asked voters the reasons why they were voting for the individual candidates.
For Pongsapat, the top 5 reasons were:
A. Like him personally, he is polite, speaks well, and down-to-earth (ชอบที่ตัวบุคคล เป็นคนสุภาพ พูดจาดี เป็นกันเอง ไม่ถือตัว),28.33%;
B. Dedicated in his work and has performance of serving the people of Bangkok that can be seen (มคีวามตง้ัใจในการทา งาน มีผลงานที่บริการคนกทม.ให้เห็น),24.03%;
C. Able to work with the central government (สามารถท างานร่วมกับรัฐบาลได้ดี),19.31%;
D. Like policies/interesting policies (ชอบนโยบาย /นโยบายน่าสนใจ),14.59%;
E. Like the party affiliated with, have PM and others in the team who can help (สังกัดพรรคที่ชอบ มีนายกฯและทีมงานคอยช่วยเหลือ สนับสนุน),13.74%
For Sukhumbhand, the top 5 reasons were:
A. Dedicated in his work, performance/results can be seen, likely able to solve problems (มคีวามตง้ัใจในการทา งาน มผีลงานใหเ้หน็ น่าจะแกป้ญัหาตา่ งๆไดด้ี),27.86%;
B. Like the party affiliated with (สังกัดพรรคที่ชอบ), 26.43%;
C. Want him to continue his work/knows the problems (อยากให้สานต่องานเดิมให้แล้วเสร็จ /เข้าใจปัญหาดี), 22.57%;
D. Polite, kind, down-to-earth/honesty (เป็นคนสุภาพ ใจดี เป็นกันเอง /เป็นคนดซี่อืสตัย์), 18.14%;
E. Like policies/interesting policies (ชอบนโยบาย /นโยบายน่าสนใจ), 5.00%
BP: Pongsapat’s support comes more from his personal characteristics than from Puea Thai voters (13.74%) whereas 26.43% of those who will vote for Sukhumbhand are doing so as they like the party he is affiliated with.
In latter posts, will look at some of the speeches and major TV interviews by both major candidates. Pongsapat is a more charismatic public speaker than Sukhumbhand; Sukhumbhand is more of a technocrat. Hence, it is not surprising that Pongsapat is seen as more empathetic.