BP has blogged an introductory post looking at the March 2, 2013 Bangkok gubernatorial race, a post last week looking at the NIDA polls, and another post last week looking at Bangkok University and ABAC polls. This post will look at the latest NIDA poll and ABAC poll.

Below is the latest NIDA poll plotted on a chart together with the 4 previous polls:

  • NIDA Poll (Dec 20-21) that surveyed 1,254 people in all 50 Districts;
  • NIDA Poll(Dec 25-26) that surveyed 557 people in 7 Districts;
  • NIDA Poll (Dec 25-Jan 4) that surveyed 3,356 people in all 50 Districts;
  • NIDA Poll(Jan 17-19) that surveyed 1,500 people in all 50 Districts; and
  • NIDA Poll (Jan 23-26) that surveyed 1,503 pople in all 50 Districts

Microsoft Excel

BP: So on the raw numbers Sukhumbhand drops 1.5 points and Ponsapat is up 4.7 points. Undecideds drop below 50%.

BP has also created another chart removing the “not vote” and “undecided” categories and adjusting the other candidates votes accordingly as shown below:

Microsoft Excel

NOTE: Of course, this is assuming those in the ”undecided” category will vote for candidates in the same proportion as those who have already made up their mind. However, in support of the general accuracy of this assumption is the reality that voter turn-out is unlikely to exceed 60%. Hence, many of the undecideds are likely to be those who won’t vote. In addition, you can take the above as reflecting voter intentions as of the time period of the poll in a more readable way. How the undecideds will vote will also depend on future events so it is hard to know for certain so weighting in another way would be pointless.

BP: As you can see Pongsapat has taken a nice lead at just under 10 points. Sukhumbhand’s support is going up and down, but his ceiling is around 44%. Third party candidates are not amounting to anything.

There is a new ABAC poll out as well.  The latest ABAC Poll is below plotted on a chart together with the 4 previous polls:

  • ABAC Poll that that surveyed 1,112 people in Bangkok between December 10-15;
  • ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,766 people between January 22-23; and
  • ABAC Poll that surveyed 1,673 people between January 31-February 2

Microsoft Excel

BP: Pongsapat has opened up a healthy lead and increased his lead from 4 to 10 points. As you see when compared with the weighted NIDA Poll, the gap is very similar.  There is still just under a month to go and a lot can happen, but Sukhumbhand is in trouble if things continue like this….