Bangkok University Poll shows Puea Thai leads the Democrats 47% to 33%By Bangkok Pundit Dec 11, 2012 12:30PM UTC
Bangkok University Poll surveyed 1,120 people between October 30 – November 2 and November 28-30
Q1: If today there was an election, who would you support as the Prime Minister between Yingluck and Abhisit? (“หากวันนี้เป็นวันเลือกตั้ง ท่านจะสนับสนุนใครเป็นนายกรัฐมนตรีระหว่าง น.ส.ยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร กับนายอภิสิทธิ์ เวชชาชีวะ”)
Period 1 is after the 3rd Yingluck Cabinet (October 30-November 2?)
Period 2 is during the period of the no-confidence debate (November 28-30 ?)
BP: The poll notes that during the 2011 floods (November 22-24) that Yingluck scored 47%. The poll shows a slight drop in support for Yingluck over the past month and a slight rise in support for Abhisit. In a direct comparison with Abhisit, Yingluck still leads comfortably.
Q2: If today there was an election, which party would you vote for for the party list and constituency votes? (“หากวันนี้เป็นวันเลือกตั้ง ท่านจะเลือกพรรคใดในระบบบัญชีรายชื่อและระบบแบ่งเขต”)
If you take out the “unsure/don’t know” and assign the votes proportionately to the others then you get:
BP: This compares quite similarly to an ABAC Poll from October showing Puea Thai with 52.7%, the Democrats with 35.9%, and other parties with 11.4%. Of course, those are unsure/don’t know will not necessarily vote in the same way as others – some will probably not vote – but it still seems likely Puea Thai will get over 50%. This is not too different from the 2011 election.
Q3: As of today, do you expect the Yingluck government will serve out the full term or not? (ณ วันนี้ ท่านคาดว่ารัฐบาลของ น.ส. ยิ่งลักษณ์ฯ จะทำงานครบวาระหรือไม่)
A. Last the full term of 4 years, 61%
B. Last for at least 3 years, but not 4, 7.9%
C. Last for at least 2 years, but not 3, 11.8%
D. For less than 2 years, 2.1%
E. Unsure/don’t know, 17.2%
BP: There is no serious threat to the government and this shows from the answers to this question.
* Survey methodology for Bangkok University Poll:
By gender: 49.6% women and 50.4% men
* those aged 18-30 (28.3%),
* those aged 31-40 (25.4%),
* those aged 41-50 (24.8%),
* those aged 51-60 (15.8%)
* those aged 60+ (5.7%)
72.4% have less than a bachelor’s degree, 23.8% have a bachelor’s degree, and 3.8% have an advanced degree.
16.9% contractors, 12.1% are farmers, 20.6% are traders/self-employed, 18.6% work for private enterprises, 10.1% are civil servants/state enterprise employees, 9% are housewives/househusbands/retired, 6.2% students, Others 6.5% didn’t specify a job/unemployed/freelance.