Is Burma really on a path of reform? Some say ‘yes’ and some say ‘no’. Why? Observable evidence is that the country’s six decade-long civil war is going on incessantly. The president’s order of ceasefire seems no influence upon the commander-in-chief of the Burma Army.

If one takes a look at an interview of Aung San Suu with The Washington Post, he or she may have second thoughts. According to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, even though the president is the head of state, he is not the highest power in Burma. The commander-in-chief can seize all governmental powers at any time since the 2008 constitution allows him to do so.  As a result, she said, the president is in a very difficult position.

On the outer surface, it looks like transformation began since the government opened up some political space for key opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. In fact, reforms in the country seem skeptical, in the face of promising achievement made by President Thein Sein recently. Many observers believe the situation is in a state of insecurity because the hard-liners’ faction and soft liner’s group in the government are wrestling for power.

Meanwhile, AFP news on Friday said that Burmese intellectuals who escaped a brutal crackdown on student protests over two decades ago have returned to their homeland for the first time on 10 February in a gesture of support for the country’s reforms.

Four senior executives of the Vahu Development Institute based in Chiang-Mai, Thailand – Zaw Oo, Aung Naing Oo, Aung Thu Nyein and Tin Maung Than – were greeted by family and a small crowd of local journalists as they arrived in Rangoon airport, AFP reported.

The four were allowed by the authorities to return to country selectively. It’s a tactical move of the government’s reform plan to show their kindness to exile dissidents. Anyhow, the government has not made an official pronouncement to welcome the exiles’ coming home under a trustworthy decree.  Thus, thousands of exiles maintain the status quo as they do not trust the playful regime that rigged votes in controversial 2010 polls.

However, after signing a ceasefire agreement on 2 December in Shan State East, Burma Army units have forced to dislodge units of Shan State Army (SSA), referring Lt-Gen Yawdserk, Chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), the SSA’s political arm, Shan Herald Agency for News said.

According to SSA sources, SSA units in Shan State East are under relentless pressure to withdraw to their main bases along the Thai-Burmese border.

Inevitably, the pressure caused armed clashes in the Shan area, for instance armed clashes occurred on 6 February near South Monghai, Tachilek district and further on 7 February in Mongpulong, Mongpiang township.

According to the SSA leader, he has lodged a protest with the Triangle Region Command in Kengtung but no reply has been received as yet.

In addition, more than 20,000 combat soldiers from nearly 200 battalions have been deployed in the Kahin frontline, the biggest military maneuver in Burma’s long-lasting civil war, as reported by Kachin News Group.  Several Kachin citizens think the reason of renewing the war after a 17-year cease-fire is the desire for natural resources in Kachin State by the Burmese military-backed government. Despite the fact that Burma’s President Thein Sein has issued an instruction twice to Burma‘s Commander-in-Chief to halt the offensive against the KIO, the war continues and the inhabitants continue to run for their lives.

Warfare between government forces and the Kachin resistance soldiers was harsh most recently in an area of northern Shan state planned to be the route of the Burma to China Shwe-gas twin pipeline project.  The KIA’s Battalion 8 endured heavy shelling in three Shan townships that lie in the path of the pipeline, Namtu, Mandong and Kutkai quoting sources on the ground, Kachin News Group said.

Many ethnic leaders claim that they don’t trust the new 2008 constitution. They say it will not create a genuine federal union in the future. Furthermore, the Burmese armed forces take 25 percent of all seats in the new parliament, so the current constitution will not grant the democratic freedom and fundamental rights for the ethnic groups of the nation.

If the current government sincerely wanted to initiate political reform, it should not put aside the historic Pang-long agreement. Burma’s 64 year-old Historic Panglong Agreement has been ignored by the successive Burmese military regime so far. The Panglong Agreement was signed on Feb. 12, 1947, between General Aung San and leaders of the Chin, Kachin and Shan ethnic groups, guaranteeing to establish a genuine federal union of Burma.

Without regarding the Panglong Agreement, most ethnic groups will not go along with the government.  Then, all peacemaking efforts of the government will be in vain and it is impossible to end the civil war. Thus, no one can say that Burma is on a course to reform since the government pays no attention to the ethnic people’s voice or the Panglong initiatives.

Some political analysts believe stopping the aggressive wars on ethnic people is the most important topics to be addressed by the new Thein Sein government if it wants to be a true reformist administration.