Kim Jong-un will be at the top, but he will not be lonely (Yao Dawei/AP Photo)

There has been speculation about Kim Jong-un’s ability to hang on to power in North Korea following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, this week.

The younger Kim, dubbed the “Great Successor” by the North Korean government, has only had official government titles for about a year.  His grooming for the position was considerably shorter than than the transition that led to his father taking over the family rulership of the country.  If fact, by the time national founder Kim Il-sung died in 1994, Jong-il had been groomed for leadership for well over a decade and had taken over much of the day-to-day business of running the country.

Jong-un has had almost none of that experience and, as Jong-il’s third son, his rise to the post is a violation of Confucian norms that still hold sway in North Korea.

There has been some speculation that National Defense Commission deputy chairman Jang Song-thaek will become a rival of the younger Kim for power.  Jang is Kim’s uncle by marriage, having married Kim Jong-il’s younger sister Kim Kyong-hui in 1972.  Jang and his wife both rapidly rose in the North Korean hierarchy, with Jang serving in the Defense Commission and Kyong-hui working in the Political Bureau and being named a general.  Jang also has an powerful ally in Ri Yong Ho, chief of the staff of North Korea’s army.

Certainly the younger Kim will need Jang’s experience and connections in the bureaucracy to prevent a power struggle or unrest.  However, Jang and other potential claimants to leadership in North Korea know that any overt change in leadership would break the cult of personality which is one of chief bonds holding the rickety North Korean state together.  Once those bonds are broken, there could be a free-for-all battle for power amid a general unraveling of central authority.

So the old hands need Jong-un as much as he needs them.  For the moment, that mutual need will hold those various elements of the government together.

However, should things fall apart, one of the other descendants of Kim Il-sung could rise to power.  While Kim Jong-il’s older sons are by all accounts not fit to lead, there is a female of the line who apparently ready for prime time:  Jong-un’s cousin Kim Sul-song.