The latest briefing – ‘Myanmar: Major Reform Underway’ – from the International Crisis Group has brought the Myanmar or Burma issue to public attention. The group examines how President Thein Sein has moved rapidly to commence implementing an ambitious reform agenda first set out in his March 2011 inaugural address.

According to the ICG, six months after the transition to a new, semi-civilian government, major changes are taking place in Myanmar (Burma). However, many steps still need to be taken to overcome decades of conflict.

But, it will be too early to say ‘major changes are taking place in Burma’.

The most significant question is no other than the ethnic issue which is rooted in the 1947 Panglong Agreement. And the most injudicious blockade is the 2008 constitution drawn by the previous military junta which systematically clutches the power through it hardcore members in the new semi-civilian government.

In August, ceasefire talks between the new namesake civilian government and the ethnic armed groups who rejected the Border Guard Force (BGF) scheme reached an immovable cul-de-sac. While the Thein Sein government clamoured to pursue ceasefire agreements with each group separately, the ethnic armed groups insisted on direct talks between the government and the ethnic coalition ‘United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)’ in order to ascertain a nationwide ceasefire.

The fact is that ceasefire talks bring to a standstill while armed clashes go on in Kachin, Shan, and Karen States producing over 50,000 war refugees.

Since mid-July there has been a dramatic change of approach, ICG evaluates referring to the meeting between Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of National League of Democracy, and President Thein Sein, head of the nominal civilian government that came into office after vote-rigging polls last November.

“In recent weeks a series of concrete steps have been taken to begin implementing the president’s reform agenda, aimed at reinvigorating the economy, reforming national politics and improving human rights”, says Jim Della-Giacoma, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director.

It is really difficult to say that there is a series of concrete steps as Jim Della-Giacoma has spotlighted. Although President Thein Sein had a meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, he did not define matters that he agreed to cooperate on. At least, he should declare a date for the next meeting and elaborate publicly on the topic that will be discussed then.

Actually, there is no timeframe for reconciliation talks as yet.

And human rights improvement seems to be more blurred since the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma, Tomás Ojea Quintana, said that “serious human rights issues” in the country remain. He gave this notable remark after meeting with several former political prisoners and various members of political parties that contested the 2010 elections in Rangoon.

“While there are strong indications that the political will exists to bring fundamental change, success will require much more than a determined leader, as resistance can be expected from hardliners in the power structure and spoilers with a vested interest in the status quo,” Jim guesses.

It is more likely to be the status quo since the hardliners are majority in the new cabinet and the 11-member defense-and-security committee.

ICG’s briefing also says: “There are already indications that key benchmarks many in the West have insisted on may soon be reached, as major initiatives, such as the release of political prisoners, are now under consideration. Internal progress on human rights and economic reforms that benefit the country’s citizens should be acknowledged and supported by the international community.”

It seems too extreme to be optimistic. For instance, although there are around 2,000 political prisoners, Chief Justice Tun Tun Oo said to the members of parliament that there is no prisoner serving a term for his belief. There are only prisoners who breached the respective laws.

Hence, the issue of releasing political prisoners is still in the pipeline of the new cabinet and the 11-member defense-and-security committee which is controlled by the military mandate.

Defense Minister Maj-Gen Hla Min said at a public meeting that there has been no forced recruitment since the Army was established. In the same tune, Information Minister Kyaw San said in recent parliament sessions that the government has no plan of annulling the Press Scrutiny and Registration Department. Additionally, it has no intention of allowing independent trade unions, Kyaw San further said.

The cabinet ministers’ mood show that they would like to follow the policies put up by the previous junta.

According to the Global Justice Center (GJC), the ICG fails to acknowledge the illegal status of “the new Myanmar government” as it is based on a constitution mandating a bifurcated sovereignty, a fundamental breach of the law of nations.

“Both the constitution and the “new Myanmar government” are null and void under international law and must be treated as such by the global community. Burma’s new constitution, further, guarantees the military impunity from prosecution, encouraging the military’s continuing crimes against humanity, genocide, and war crimes,” GJC wrote in its letter.

In its letter dated 20 September, the Global Justice Center urges the ICG to immediately revoke its longstanding policy of supporting unconditional engagement with Burma’s military rulers.