Part 1 looking at a Suan Dusit poll is here. There is a new ABAC poll that surveyed 2,412 people in 17 provinces (Bangkok, Pathum Thani, Chanthaburi, Lop Buri, Chon Buri, Phichit, Phetchabun, Chiang Mai, Mukdahan, Nong Khai, Chaiyaphum, Surin, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Phatthalung, Surat Thani and Nakhon Si Thammarat).

In future posts – as have done in the past – BP will include the survey methodology, but will wait until the EC updates their website and there is a spreadsheet with the full election results available so can compare the performance of the pre-election polls and exit polls for accuracy.*

Q1: The percentage of people who accept/agree with the new Cabinet Ministers (​แสดงค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ระบุ ​การยอมรับต่อคณะรัฐมนตรี​ในรัฐบาลชุด​ใหม่)

1. Yingluck Shinawatra,  79.9%
2. Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silapa-archa, 58.9%
3. Defence Minister General Yuthasak Sasiprapha and Justice Minister Pracha Promnok, 58.4% each
5. Deputy Prime Minister Pol General Kowit Wattana, 57.7%
6. Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit and Science and Technology Minister Plodprasob Suraswadi,  57.1% each
8. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittirat na Ranong, 57%
9. Information and Communications Technology Minister Group Capt Anudith Nakornthap, 56.2%
10. Deputy Finance Minister Wirun Techapaiboon and Deputy Transport Minister Chaj Kuladilok, 55.7%
12. Deputy Public Health Minister Torpong Chaiyasarn, 55.2%
13. Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives Theera Wongsamut, 54.9%
14. Public Health Minister Witthaya Buranasiri, 54.8%
15. Finance Minister Thirachai Bhuwanatnaranuban Minister of Finance, 54.0%
16. Energy Minister Pichai Naripthaphan, 53.9%
17. Minister of Foreign Affairs Surapong Tovichakchaikul, 53.5%
18. Deputy Commerce Minister Siriwat Kachornprasart, 53%
19. Social Development and Human Security Minister Santi Promphat, 45.2% [BP: Big drop]

21. Industry Minister Wannarat Charnnukul, 44.9%

24. Education Minister Vorawat Uea-apinyakul, 44.4%
25. ACM Transport Minister Sukhamphol Suwannathat, 44.3%
26. Deputy PM Chalerm and Culture Minister Sukumol Khunpleum, 44.1% each
28. PM’s Office Minister Surawit Khonsomboon, 44%

32. Natural Resources and Environment Minister Preecha Rengsomboonsuk, 43.6%

36. PM’s Office Minister Kritsana Seehalak, 41.6%

NOTE: Out of time constraints have excluded Deputy Ministers from below No. 20

BP: Accept/agree with does not necessarily indicate support/like/favour although clearly the higher you rate the better it is. Perhaps, one could say it is approval rating although that is not quite accurate either. Nevertheless, one could approve of the job the person is doing or accept them without necessarily supporting them. There is a separate question regarding support and 71.8% say they support Yingluck (นิยมชอบ) so you can take the 71.8% support figure or the 79.9% approval/acceptance ratings are very high. There is such a huge gap between Yingluck and everyone else. Yes, she wouldn’t have got the position except for Thaksin, but it is not just because of her surname she is doing so well – see below for more. Nevertheless, what goes up, can also come down…..

Surapong doesn’t do as badly. In some ways, if Thaksin doesn’t cause problems, Cambodia is unlikely (although this depends on Hun Sen’s mood…) to be a problem, the Defence Minister Yuthasak because of his ties is likely to handle relations with Cambodia more than one would expect, and Surapong could easily gain some kudos by showing up at Phnom Penh and bringing back Ratree and Veera, the two PAD affiliated activists who are in jail there. The problem is when things go wrong that the perception will be, could someone with more experience have done better? Unless the government allows him some wins – such as with getting back the two Thais in Cambodia – and puts in an experienced former Ambassador as Vice-Minister/personal adviser then problems are likely to continue to surround Surapong.

Anyone else above 50% is okay, but those below could be in trouble – Chalerm is probably an exception as well he has a vocal support base and while he is hated by many, he is loved by many (albeit haters outnumber ‘lovers’, for want of a better word). Both the PM’s Office Ministers score very badly.

Q2. Top 10 Ministers that “civil servants” will accept/agree excluding the PM ( ตารางที่ 2 ​แสดง 10 อันดับ ค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่าง​ใน “กลุ่มข้าราช​การ” ที่ระบุ ​การยอมรับต่อคณะรัฐมนตรี​ในรัฐบาลชุด​ใหม่ ​ไม่นับรวมนายกรัฐมนตรี)

A. Yuthasak Sasiprapha, 58.3%

B. Kowit Wattana, 58.1%

C. Pracha Promnok, 57.5%

D. Yongyuth Wichaidit, 57.3%

E. Plodprasob Suraswadi, 54.9%

F. Kittirat Na. Ranong, 54.9%

BP: Yuthasak will deal with the military and Cambodia. As long as things are stable on those fronts, he will do well. On one hand, it really doesn’t matter what civil servants think of the government, but it does in the sense that if Puea Thai want to implement their policy they need for the civil servants including the military to at least be quiet.

Q3. Top 10 Ministers that “private sector employees” will accept/agree excluding the PM (ตารางที่ 3 ​แสดง 10 อันดับ ค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่าง​ใน “พนักงานบริษัท​เอกชน” ที่ระบุ ​การยอมรับต่อคณะรัฐมนตรี​ในรัฐบาลชุด​ใหม่ ​ไม่นับรวมนายกรัฐมนตรี)

1. Kittirat Na. Ranong, 61.1%

2. Thirachai Bhuwanatnaranuban, 57.8%

3. Kowit Wattana, 55.1%

4. Wirun Techapaiboon, 54.3%

5. Yongyuth Wichaidit, 53.6%

6. Yuthasak Sasiprapha, 52.8%

7. Pracha Promnok, 52.2%

8. Chumpol Silapa-archa, 51.9%

9. Plodprasob Suraswadi, 50.9%

10. Surapong Tovichakchaikul, 50.1%

BP: Two economic ministers and even Wirun Techapaiboon (because of his family name?) are unsurprisingly first and second. They will need to deal with the private sector over the minimum wage which is the main policy test for the government.

Surapong doesn’t too badly.

Q4. Points out of 10 for the overal perception of the new Cabinet in areas of responsibility (ตารางที่ 4 ​แสดงค่าคะ​แนน​เฉลี่ยภาพลักษณ์​โดยภาพรวมของรัฐมนตรีชุด​ใหม่ที่รับผิดชอบ​ในด้านต่างๆ (คะ​แนน​เต็ม 10 คะ​แนน))

1. Economic affairs, 6.16 points

2. Security affairs, 5.83 points

3. Solving social problems, 5.73 points

4. Honesty/morality, 5.44 points

5. Overall, 6.1 points

BP: It is clearly the economic team which is the strong point and this is the strong point.

Q5. Compared between Yingluck and Thaksin who do you support? (​แสดงค่าร้อยละของตัวอย่างที่ระบุ​ความคิดต่อนัก​การ​เมืองที่นิยมชอบ ระหว่าง นางสาวยิ่งลักษณ์ ชินวัตร  กับ พ.ต.ท.ดร.ทักษิณ  ชินวัตร)

1. Yingluck, 44.9%

2. Thaksin, 23.8%

3. No opinion, 31.3%

BP: If Yingluck’s popularity was derived solely from Thaksin then you wouldn’t get the above. Perhaps, the person who comes in second may reflect on whether he is helping or hindering the person who comes in first….

*btw, if anyone knows when the EC data is released in Excel format – like they did for the 2007 general election – then please let BP know – either by e-mail: bangkokpundit@gmail.com or twitter @bangkokpundit -