In the lead-up to the July 3 election, BP has blogged on a number of polls as follows (from oldest to newest):

  • The E-san poll, as blogged about here and here, which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 63.9%, Democrats, 20.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%),
  • Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 20%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%, undecided 53%),
  • Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 41%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 4% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 45%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 4%),
  • Bangkok-only DPU poll which showed that Puea Thai would win 19 constituencies, Democrats 5 and the rest were too close to call, and
  • Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 43%, Democrats 37%, Bhum Jai Thai 3% OR if you remove the undecideds and those who will vote no you get Puea Thai 47%, Democrats 41%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
  • Poll of the Lower North showing how people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 23.2%, Democrats 22.2%, 4.5% for other parties, and 50.1% were undecided),
  • Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 22%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%) and party vote (Puea Thai 23%, Democrats 13%, undecided 64%),
  • Bangkok-only DPU Poll which shows that Puea Thai is leading in the constituency vote 47% to Dems 40% and party vote 47% to Dems 39%,
  • a Bangkok University poll that showed that Puea Thai is leading 33.6% to 17.6% for the Democrats in Bangkok for the party vote,
  • Nationwide Suan Dusit poll which showed who people would cast their party vote for (Puea Thai 52%, Democrats 34%, Bhum Jai Thai 3%),
  • Nationwide NIDA poll which looked at who people would cast their constituency vote for (Puea Thai 35%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 33%) and party vote for (Puea Thai 36%, Democrats 21%, undecideds 32%),
  • ABAC poll of 28 provinces throughout Thailand which showed who people would cast their party vote for ( Puea Thai, 43.7%, 39.1%, Bhum Jai Thai 6.6%),
  • Mahasarakham University poll which surveyed all 20 provinces in the Northeast which looked at who those surveyed would cast their vote for (Puea Thai 64.3%, Democrats, 12.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai, 8.1%), and
  • Bangkok Poll which shows that Puea Thai is leading in the party vote 38% to Dems 22% (undecideds in 20s and also those who won’t answer are included).

BP: BP has posted about the accuracy of Thai polls and the problem of using a single poll – hence why we have the above refresher which is included and updated for future posts on polls. Polls may be poorly worded and not so reflective of those who will vote on July 3, but they are data points and together with other information we can use them to evaluate how each of the parties will do for the July 3 general election.

There is a new Durakit Bundit poll (DOC)- the third such poll. This poll surveyed 9,371 people in 33 constituencies of Bangkok between June 18-20.

Q1.
- 88% said they intend to vote,
- 8% said they are unsure whether they will vote, and
- 5% said they think they will not vote.

Q3.
-62% said they had decided who to vote for and will not change their minds (last time 55%),
-6% said they had decided who to vote for, but may change their mind (last time 9%),
-26% said they are undecided (last time 31%),
-2% said they will ‘vote no’ (last time 5%), and
-4% said decided, but will not disclose (last time this option was not included)

BP: No vote has dropped for this poll although not for other polls.

Q3: On constituency voe for all 33 Bangkok constituencies compared with the previous DPU poll:


NOTE: Undecideds is 5% or less. Other parties has fallen from 13% to 10%

BP: The June 3-6 poll showed Puea Thai leading in 18 constituencies, Democrats in 6, and too close to call in 9; this poll shows Puea Thai leading in 22, Democrats leading in 6 and 5 too close to call. This is despite the fact that the Democrats have increased by 2%, but Puea Thai have increased 1%. The main reason is that Puea Thai is leading by just over the 5% margin in a few more constituencies. In some constituencies, the result has narrowed, but in others, Puea Thai’s margin has increased.

Hence, it is easier to say why many predictions have Puea Thai winning a majority of the constituency seats in Bangkok – which would be the nail in the coffin of the Democrats’ chances to form the next government and hence another reason why the Democrats were out in force at Rajaprasong last week to convince Bangkok voters to stick with them (the Democrats won 27 out of 36 seats in the 2007 general election).

Q4: On party vote in all 33 Bangkok constituencies compared with the previous DPU poll

BP: Other parties down by 3% with the Democrats up by 2% and Puea Thai up by 1%.

Q4: When asked who people want as PM (i.e preferred PM candidate)
- Yingluck 47%
- Abhisit 39%
- Purachai 7%
- Chuwit 4%
- Others 3%

BP: Yingluck’s 47% is the same as the Bangkok Poll blogged about this morning, but Abhisit scores much higher on this poll.

btw, this is the last poll that will blog on as new polls are not allowed to be published in the last seven days of the election campaign…