Are the Thai third parties in trouble?By Bangkok Pundit Jun 21, 2011 12:00PM UTC
In a previous post which partly critique the view of The Nation‘s Avudh who stated that the small parties, notably Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai would win 45 of the 125 party vote. In response, BP wrote:
BP’s ‘complaint’ is the undervaluing of the two major parties. As we saw with the 2007 General Election and we are seeing with all polls now, it is the two major parties who are dominating the party vote yet Avudh views they will win only 80 out of the 125 party list seats and the smaller parties will win 45 seats. Really? This means those parties will need to poll around 35% of the party vote together. That ain’t happening.
Now, for constituencies the medium-sized parties of Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai will do well in certain provinces, but there is no indication that people will cast their party vote for them in large numbers. BP views the smaller and medium-sized parties will win 20-25 seats.
In addition, in this post, BP predicted that the smaller parties would win only 90 seats between them with the remaining 410 being won by Puea Thai and the Democrats with Chat Thai Pattana winning 25-30 seats. Now, the Bangkok Post has Chat Thai Pattana lowering their estimates:
The Chartthaipattana Party has significantly lowered its target of between 30 and 35 MPs, admitting it cannot compete with Pheu Thai’s popularity in the Northeast.
Estimated support had fallen by 5% to 10%, said party leader Chumpol Silpa-archa, admitting that in Pheu Thai’s Isan stronghold only the party’s candidate in Ubon Ratchathani, Tun Chittawet, still had a good chance to snatch victory.
Most constituency seats would come from Chartthaipattana’s traditional political base in Suphan Buri and nearby provinces in the Central Region, he said, but did not give a figure.
Post Today‘s article in Thai has some direct quotes and those direct quotes make it easier to understand:
“From the situation that has occurred, the party has had to lower the goals of MPs by 5-10% especially for the party vote because now we are even losing to Chuwit….In the current situation, if we get 30 seats from both [constituency and party list] systems then that would be fortunate. [I] don’t know where the trend/momentum comes from. It is strange. For Srisaket, [we] had high goals, but [now] we have the right to be concerned. Surin is concerning. In the Northeast, there is only… candidate in Ubon Ratachathani, a sole candiate” said Chumpol (“จากสถานการณ์ที่เกิดขึ้นทำให้พรรคต้องปรับเป้าหมายสส.ลดลง5-10% โดยเฉพาะระบบบัญชีรายชื่อเพราะตอนนี้ยังแพ้นายชูวิทย์ กมลวิศิษฎ์ ผู้สมัครสส.ระบบบัญชีรายชื่อพรรครักประเทศไทยเลย ถ้าเป็นสถานการณ์ตอนนี้ได้ 30 ที่นั่งรวมทั้งสองระบบก็บุญแล้ว ไม่รู้ว่ากระแสมันมายังไง แปลกจริงๆ ขนาดศรีสะเกษตั้งเป้าไว้เต็มที่ก็ยังมีสิทธิ์น่าเป็นห่วง สุรินทร์ก็น่าเป็นห่วง อีสานคงเหลือแค่นายตุ่น จิตตะเวช ผู้สมัครสส. อุบลราชธานี คนเดียว”นายชุมพล กล่าว)
BP: Now, unlike in many western countries where political parties will, at times, try to lower expectations by understating their chances and then later in a campaign point to better polls numbers suggesting they have “The Big Mo“, this is not the case in Thailand. It is rare for politicians to deliberately lower expectations and understate their chances. Their actions and through leaks we may be able to determine what their own internal numbers show, but publicly they will still be spinning the same numbers. Now, Chumpol is saying they will be happy to gett to 30. CTP are lucky that they have a solid support base in and around Suphan Buri so they have a core support, but based on what Chumpol is saying 23-25 seats seems more likely for Chat Thai Pattana now. With Bhum Jai Thai also not doing so well in the polls, the minor parties may win only 80 seats….