by James Goyder

An election is imminent with the Kingdom of Thailand crying out for a government that is democratically elected without requiring the intervention of either the military, the judiciary or a public protest.

Even the most staunch supporter of incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party could not argue that they came to control the country through conventional means. Firstly Thaksin Shinawatra, the man whose shadow still looms large over the Thai political landscape, was deposed in the most unconstitutional of manners through a good old fashioned military coup.

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Pic: AP.

Then the People’s Power Party, effectively the reincarnation of Shinawatra’s banned Thai Rak Thai party, won 226 out of 480 seats at the subsequent election, with the Democrats coming a distant second claiming just 166 seats. Although the PPP fell short of a clear majority they were still able to form a coalition government with the aid of a number of smaller parties.

At this point the judiciary and the People’s Alliance for Democracy came to the Democrat’s rescue. The former disqualified a number of candidates for electoral fraud, most of them belonging to the PPP, although one Democrat was ‘yellow carded’. The latter then began a series of protests against the PPP which resulted in the closure of both Bangkok airports as well as those in Phuket, Krabi and Hat Yai.

Prime Minister and PPP leader Samak Sundaravej was under immense pressure but refused to stand down despite the fact that tourism in Thailand, a cornerstone of the country’s economy, was in danger of grinding to a standstill. Once again it was the judiciary that ultimately made the vital intervention when the Constitutional Court of Thailand found that Samak had violated the constitution by receiving payment for hosting two cooking TV shows. His premiership was immediately terminated leaving the PPP in disarray and ultimately allowing the Democrat Party to form their own coalition government.

The continual lack of clarity which has become a trademark of Thai politics is unlikely to be abated by the forthcoming election. The latest incarnation of Thai Rak Thai, the Pheu Thai Party, retains a strong base of support, primarily in northern Thailand and is expected to win a similar number of seats to the ruling Democrat Party.

It is unlikely that either the Democrats or Pheu Thai will be able to win a decisive majority meaning that, once again, private negotiations with the smaller parties could settle the outcome of the election.  There are already dark mutterings about the power wielded by the ‘invisible hand’ of a handful of influential individuals suspected of holding more power than the actual Prime Minister. In this context the prospect of a government being formed through behind the scenes political maneuvering is not one elements of the electorate will find particularly palatable.

Last time around the PAD took to the streets to protest against, and ultimately oust, an elected government that they disapproved of. Today the PAD appears a spent force, a list of demands for extreme military action against Cambodia has not proved a populist manifesto and they recently ann0unced that they would be boycotting the election. This had all the hallmarks of a futile gesture as support for the ‘yellow shirts’ appears to be dwindling and any reference to allegiance to the monarchy, which has been a cornerstone of PAD policy, would be in breach of a recently imposed Electoral Commission ban.

Once vociferous supporters of Vejjajiva, the PAD are now openly contemptuous of the Prime Minister and are also sworn enemies of Shinawatra and, consequentially, Pheu Thai. They are effectively stuck between a rock and a hard place and the days when they wielded the sort of power which could bring down a government appear long gone.

It is the red, rather than the yellow shirts, who are a potent political force in 2011. Their lack of popularity in the south is a potentially insurmountable impediment towards winning a decisive majority but the north of the country is a Pheu Thai stronghold in which Democrats, quite literally in certain instances, fear to tread.

Any party calling itself the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) should be placated by an election but the UDD are already aggrieved that, while the PAD were able to achieve a change of government through a largely peaceful protest, their attempts to do something similar were met with a heavy handed approach which resulted in the loss of 91 lives last year. A controversial enquiry which exonerated the army of all blame will have done nothing to appease the UDD who have never forgiven the armed forces for ousting Shinawatra in the first place.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban was recently forced to deny accusations that the cabinet’s last minute approval of populist projects costing tens of billions of Baht was effectively state sponsored vote buying. There is nothing unusual about a government looking to boost its popularity with an election imminent but it is unlikely that this is the last accusation of corruption we will hear between now and the election, which is tentatively scheduled for July 3rd.

With the margins between success and failure for both the main political parties likely to be thin, any sort of corruption related disqualifications could be decisive, meaning that the judiciary could have a key role to play in deciding the composition of the next government.

There is so much potential for dissatisfaction that Thailand could be a combustible place in the aftermath of the election. Despite their protestations to the contrary, the army will not be relishing the prospect of Pheu Thai being given a political platform to allow Shinawatra to return and potentially even re-open the investigation into events which led to the deaths of 91 people on the streets of Bangkok last year.

If Pheu Thai candidates are penalized for electoral irregularities, as their PPP predecessors were, the UDD could well see this as a cynical intervention by those allied to the Democrat party. It is questionable whether there are any circumstances under which the UDD will quietly accept another Democrat led government and if they perceive there to be any sort of impropriety the red shirts could take to the streets again

A well conducted, corruption free election which produces a clear cut winner could dispel much of the instability which hangs over the Kingdom. The slightest suggestion of controversy would have completely the opposite effect and Thailand will go to the ballot boxes this July with a certain sense of trepidation.