All credit to the excellent ABC News Watch blog for uncovering the latest failed climate prediction. This one comes from a 2002 edition of the Four Corners program that confidently asserted:

According to the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 10 per cent of the world’s reefs were lost by 1992. 27 per cent were lost by the year 2000. And it’s expected 40 per cent will be gone by 2010.

Of course, as ABC News Watch points out, 40 per cent of the world’s coral did not disappear in this time when, if anything, studies suggested there may have been a small decrease in the amount of coral in the region of about 2 per cent.

Funnily enough, the prediction was made by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, an organisation founded by none other than the United Nations Environment Programme. Yes, it’s that UNEP, the same one that achieved fame with its bogus 50 million refugees by 2010 claim.

As with our last investigation, it appears that environmental groups are going to ignore the last blunder and soldier on with more predictions like this one:

If nothing is done now, by 2030, 90 percent of all the world’s coral reefs could be threatened by thermo-stress significant enough to induce severe bleaching.

An alternative view – and one that would seem to be borne out by experience from 2002-2010 – comes from Professor Bob Carter, a geologist who has spent some time studying coral reefs:

… the sea surface temperature of the Great Barrier Reef shows no change over the last 30 years, and the speculation that the reef will bleach every year by 2030 doubtless represents the projection of another of those legendary, and legendarily wrong, computer models.

It turns out this is the latest of a long list of climate predictions that have not quite turned out as expected.

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