BP has previously blogged on the clashes on the Thai-Cambodian border which started on February 4, 2011 – see here, here, here, here, and here. We had temporary ceasefires and then the clashes started again. On February 15, the President of the UN Security Council called for a a ‘permanent ceasefire’ between Thailand and Cambodia. On February 16, the Cambodian Foreign Minister stated that Cambodia will ask Asean to send “observers” to the disputed areas between Cambodia and Thailand near Preah Vihear temple to ensure a permanent ceasefire and that a representative from ASEAN attend future meetings between Thailand and Cambodia.

The Thai and Cambodian militaries agreed to a ceasefire on February 19. Then on February 20 just before an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting on February 22 which would be dealing with the clashes, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit also proposed ASEAN send observers to the border area. The Nation:

“We would ask Indonesia, chair of Asean, to dispatch observers to embed with the Thai troops at the border where the Thai troops clashed with Cambodian troops. The observers will be our witness that we respect the ceasefire,” Kasit said

At the ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting it was agreed to send 15 observers to each side of the border to ensure both sides keep the ceasefire which would duly be provided by Indonesia, as the chair of ASEAN. Also, MCOT:

The Indonesian foreign minister added his country will also take part in bilateral talks between Thailand and Cambodia as requested by both sides.

Abhisit on the outcome was still sticking to the position that things were still to be dealt with bilaterally. MCOT:

“Regarding the ASEAN resolution to send its observer team to the border, this does not mean that a third country has intervened in the dispute,” asserted the Thai premier. “The matter should end at ASEAN and Cambodia should not bring the issue to the United Nations again.”

BP: Unsurprisingly, PAD didn’t agree and protested against the Indonesian intervention. So in about a week we went from clashes to an agreement, but when would the observers be coming? Well, we need another meeting to resolve that. This is where we have now ran into a problem.

The Bangkok Post on March 10:

Foreign Ministry spokesman Thani Thongphakdi yesterday said Phnom Penh had confirmed it agreed to Indonesia’s proposal to organise the GBC meeting in Indonesia and that Thailand welcomes Cambodia’s readiness to attend.

The GBC is co-chaired by the defence ministers of the two countries.

Mr Thani said that on this occasion Thailand could discuss with Cambodia the terms for Indonesia to send observers to the Thai-Cambodian border to monitor the situation.

Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya on Tuesday replied by letter to Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa over the proposed meeting. He said Thailand was ready to attend but he wanted to have further discussions about the details, including the format, venue and date.

An army source said its Border Affairs Department had sent a letter notifying Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon about the meeting, which will be held in Bogor in West Java.

If both sides agree to attend the meeting proposed by Indonesia it would be the first time the GBC has met in a third country, the source said.

Gen Prawit last week called his Cambodian counterpart Tea Banh on the telephone asking him to bring forward from April to March the 8th GBC meeting, which was originally to be hosted by Cambodia in Siem Reap.

“But Gen Tea Banh has not yet replied. This is believed to be because Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen does not want the meeting to be bilateral,” the source said.

The source said the Thai side actually wants the GBC to be a forum for military leaders of the two countries to meet and talk and is disgruntled about the presence of the Indonesian third party.

Meanwhile, the Thai government sees no problems if the Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting with Cambodia is held in Indonesia on March27-28, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday.

With or without a third-party observer, as long as Cambodia was willing to attend the meeting it would be a positive indication that relations between the two nations could move forward, Mr Abhisit said.

Everything seems okay? We are having a meeting to agree on observers. The Cambodian government is on board, the Thai government is on Board, but we still have the Thai military.

The Bangkok Post on March 22 has a headline which says it all “Prawit rejects GBC meeting in Indonesia”:

Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha will not attend the 8th General Border Committee meeting with Cambodia.

Referring to the meeting, scheduled for Bogor, Indonesia, on April 7-8, Gen Prawit said: “No, I’m not going. Why should I go for the meeting in a third-party country? [Thailand and Cambodia] know each other well enough and don’t want any other party to get involved.”

A military source said Gen Prawit had also decided not to attend an earlier [BP: March 27-28 one presumes] GBC meeting in Indonesia proposed by Cambodia and the Asean chair.

Gen Prayuth also said Cambodia’s proposal to set up 15 joint border checkpoints in the disputed 4.6-square-kilometre area near Preah Vihear temple was unnecessary, as he believed the dispute could be solved through military talks.

BP: Okay, part of the article is sourced from an anonymous source, but we do have an on-the-record quote from Prawit saying he will not attend the April meeting. So who will attend from the Thai side? If there is an agreement to send Indonesian observers will the Thai military allow it to happen?

The importance of the observers is that it will make it more difficult for one side to fire first shot as if there are independent observers on either side they can point out who fired, first as opposed to what we had in February where both sides accused the other of firing first. Of course, these 15 observers cannot be everywhere, but the risk of one side firing first and getting caught is now much higher with 15 observers embedded with the military of each side.  So hence may one wonder, does the Thai military want observers? If not, then the question is why, but if you can read between the lines you can guess why…..

P.S. Wrote this post earlier, but it is scheduled for publication now and have just seen this Bangkok Post article. Key excerpt:

Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and commanders of all armed forces have resolved not to allow Indonesian observers to enter the 4.6 square kilometre dispute area on the Thai-Cambodian border, army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Wednesday.

Gen Prayuth insisted the top brass wanted the Thai-Cambodian conflict to be solved by the two countries only.

He said the army had made a proposal to Cambodia through the Foreign Ministry that if there are to be joint checkpoints in the disputed area a centre should be set up to coordinate their operations.

The coordination centre must be manned by Thai and Cambodian soldiers only.  It is not necessary to have Indonesian observers.

If Cambodia insisted in having Indonesian observers, they should be allowed to perform their duty outside the disputed area,  Gen Prayuth said.

“Why do they want to enter the disputed area?  It’s not safe there.  The question is, if Indonesian observers come, will they be able to order Cambodian soldiers not to violate the Memorandum of Understanding?” he asked.

The army chief was firm to his stand that the Thai-Cambodian conflict over the Preah Vihear temple was a matter to be solved by Thailand and Cambodia and Indonesia or any other third countries should not be allowed to get involved.

“Thailand and Cambodia, especially between soldiers, can reach a settlement through negotiations,” he said.

Gen Prayuth reaffirmed the Thai top brass would not attend the General Border Committee (GBC) meeting in Indonesia on April 7-8.

“The 8th GBC was initially to be hosted by Cambodia.  If Cambodia cannot host the meeting, we would offer to host it in Thailand.  We are contacting Gen Tea Banh, the Cambodian defence minister, over this matter,” he said.

Asked what if Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen insisted in not holding bilateral talks, he said: “If the meeting cannot be held, it would not be held.”

Talks must be bilateral and foreigners should not interfere, Gen Prayuth said.

BP: Why would Indonesian observers embedded on the Thai side need to enter the 4.6 square kilometre dispute area anyway? (i.e why would the Thai military be entering?)  Will Prayuth and the other brass allow Indonesian observers on the Thai side outside the 4.6 sq km? Or not at all? Who controls this issue? The government or the military? Will the military listen to the government?