Yesterday, I began campaigning in Bagan Pinang alongside PAS candidate Zulkefly Mohd Omar, Kit Siang, Penang DCM 1 Mansor Othman and the local DAP leaders.

Heard a new round of political jokes in Port Dickson. It’s about the dilemma of the Negeri Sembilan menteri besar, Mohamad Hassan.

Tolong PAS, Umno mampus.
Tolong Umno, aku yang mampus.

(If I help PAS, Umno will die.
If I help Umno, I’ll die.)

That’s because Mohamad Hassan is faced with a million-dollar question now: Should Umno candidate Mohd Isa Samad win, will he be made an Exco?

There are 10 Exco posts provided for under the state constitution, but Mohamad had only filled 8 vacancies after GE2008.

In theory, Mohd Isa can at least be made Exco No. 9, but Mohamad is tight-lipped when reporters posed him that question incessantly yesterday.

Mohamad made it into the second term as the Negeri Sembilan menteri besar with a much reduced majority in GE2008. The PR coalition has narrowed the gap into a 6-seat margin. Should Bagan Pinang fall, the BN majority will be further reduced to 4 seats.

So, the next headache for Mohamad is Umno No. 1, Najib, actually.

It’s too precarious for BN to sustain its effectiveness in the state with a slim majority while PR continues to make significant inroads. A replacement MB is on the card for Najib since Mohamad had never been his man of choice anyway.

“Mohd Isa can’t be returning to active politics at 59 without a quid pro quo,” pundits of Umno local politics said.

Whereas, Mohd Isa is a seasoned hand in local politics and in the running of the state as he had been a menteri besar for 22 years. It was only fate that Abdullah Badawi made him a federal minister after GE2004, and had his political career killed just months thereafter due to graft-related disciplinary action sanctioned by the party.

Upset is imminent

Thus far, Umno’s campaign machinery has yet to kick in full-steam, while PAS, too, is fumbling with basic logistics and still struggling to find a strong footing at the local grassroots level. Both opponents are neutralised on this same terrain.

However, how Umno’s internal squabbling is going to get more intense by voting day on October 11 will decide whether who will ultimately mampus in the race, Umno or Mohamad Hassan.

Noticeably, Mohd Isa was never the state assemblyman for Bagan Pinang though he resides there. Born in Melaka, his former constituency throughout his stance as the Negeri Sembilan MB was in Linggi.

For now, it’s a battle-ground like most Umno-held constituencies. Non-Malay voters comprising 31.5% of the electorates will be the deciding factor as the 63% Malay voters — inclusive of the 34%+ of postal votes — will give BN-Umno the upperhand advantage though a split-in-the-middle is brewing.

Furthermore, the racism-laced Umno campaign tactics had not gone down unnoticed by the Chinese (1,458 votes) and Indian (2,834) voters combined.

But given the intra-party conflicts within Umno, an upset is very much on the card.