BP is finally back on deck. The facts are becoming a little clearer now so will try to incorporate the information in the form of answers to questions with links to sources.

Where and what was the explosion?

The explosion occurred around 6pm on Tuesday, October 5 at Samarn Metta Mansion in the Thippawan housing estate in Nonthaburi province, 40 kilometres north of Bangkok (DPA). According to Gen. Wichean Potephosri, the national police chief, initial forensic evidence suggests the bomb was made from about 10 kilograms of TNT and was being assembly at the apartment before it exploded (CNN; WSJ). Police said the evidence indicated the bomb exploded while Samai was assembling it in a rented room at the apartment block (DPA) and thus it was an accidental explosion (AP).

Nonthaburi police chief Maj. Gen. Supakit Srichantranon police found bomb-making materials in the apartment, including fertilizer contained in fire extinguishers, electrical circuit boards, high-voltage batteries (AP) and two magazines of bullets containing 56 bullets and one name card of a shop selling nails (Matichon). Reuters:

Also found was the explosive chemical ammonium nitrate, cooking gas canisters which have been used as bomb casings, an AK-47 rifle and a CD titled “new Thai state,” a euphemism for republicanism in a country where discussion of the monarchy’s role in politics is taboo and limited by tough lese majeste laws.

According to the DSI, the explosion is linked with four other explosions (Matichon)

How many people were killed?

The lasted confirmed death toll is 4 persons (BBC; Bangkok Post)

Who was behind it?

Initially, the authorities were circumspect in saying who was behind the explosion per AP:

Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd, spokesman for the special army-led body in charge of security since a state of emergency was declared during the political unrest, said he did not have many details, but conceded the blast could be linked to politics.

He said the special agency, the Center for Resolution of the Emergency Situation, was evaluating the incident.

“We cannot be certain that it is political. … We have to look at all factors and motivations,” Sansern told The Associated Press.

Later, they were more direct per Reuters:

Police said the explosion happened in a room rented by an anti-government protester from the northern city of Chiang Mai, a stronghold of the red shirt movement and hometown of its patriarch, ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
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Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said the identity of the tenant suggested red shirt radicals may have been involved.

“The renter of the room is a red shirt and it’s possible it was linked to a more hardcore group,” he told Reuters. “There is evidence it might have been politically motivated but the police should be given time to do their job.”

Bangkok Post has more details on Samai Wongsuwan:

A native of Chiang Mai’s Hang Dong district and a staunch red shirt supporter, Mr Samai was arrested in Chiang Mai in connection with an assault on a group of yellow shirt supporters on Aug 23 last year. He was suspected of throwing a grenade at an office of yellow shirt supporters.

He was believed to be involved in an explosion of a car in the parking lot of Poseidon massage parlour in Bangkok on April 5.
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A driver’s licence with his name was found near the body part, said an officer at the Crime Suppression Division who is involved in the case.

DNA tests are being undertaken to confirm his identity.

BP: Police report that the fingerprint tests have confirmed that Samai also died (DPA) based on comparing the fingers found at the scene with the files from his criminal record, but will need to wait for a DNA test to officially confirm (Matichon).

Another Bangkok Post article:

When Samai Wongsuwan left his home four months ago, he told his wife Buakham Muangma he was embarking on a mission to restore democracy to the country.
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Ms Buakham broke into tears when she saw the news about the apartment blast and heard suspicions of her husband’s involvement. “He told me he was leaving for a big job,” she said.

“He wouldn’t get in contact until the big job was done.”
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She said he joined the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) and the Chiang Mai 51 group to help their cause.
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“I washed and ironed his favourite red T-shirts,” she said.

“I kept them in good condition in case he wanted to use them when he came back.”

Ms Buakham said Mr Samai took part in the UDD rally in Bangkok early this month and apparently was in the heat of the action on April 10 when troops and demonstrators clashed in the area around Ratchadamnoen Avenue.

“He came home shortly after the April 10 incident with a gunshot wound to his left cheek,” she said.

“He didn’t say a word about the injury until he got home.”

BP: The police chief says he was red shirt guard at Rajaprasong (Matichon) although his wife denies he was eve a guard, but confirms he was always at the red shirt rallies (Thai Rath, October 8, page 16). Channel 3′s Sahm Miti news program last night showed video of his wife talking and Samai’s red shirt clothing. According to Thai Rath, there is a poster at his home stating “Thaksin will come back to see you very soon”  (Thai Rath, October 8, page 16).

Matichon has some different quotes where she states he has never had any involvement in weapons and she didn’t know what he was doing, but that he had fled because he was worried about the CRES. Also, the mayor of the village (they have mayors???) stated that from what he asked from villagers that Samai was a good person and always helped others with fixing the electrical appliances of neighbours and does not believe he was involved in the explosion. Also, Thai Rath quotes his wife as stating that he also earned money from fixing radios and other electrical appliances (Thai Rath, October 8, page 16).

BP: Someone who is handy with fixing electrical appliances can easily, with some training, use these skills to creat mischief….

Bangkok Post has more on the two other people who were with Samai:

A manhunt is now under way for the married couple seen at the apartment with Mr Samai carrying fertiliser sacks before the blast.
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A security camera at the apartment also captured Mr Samai seeing off a married couple hours before the blast, said the CSD officer who requested anonymity.

Pattaraporn Petnil, 38, a housekeeper, said the couple, travelling in a Toyota pickup truck with Narathiwat licence plates, visited Mr Samai’s room often.

She saw the three of them entering the apartment at 11am on Tuesday and making a number of trips between the room and the car carrying pillows and fertiliser sacks.

BP: Channel 3′s Sahm Miti news program last night showed a picture of the female from the married couple and she was wearing the hijab (i.e the Muslim head dress which covers the head, but not the face). Will the Muslim and Narathiwat connection get much play? A Democrat MP from Narathiwat has dismissed speculation that there is any link with the violence in the 3 southern border provinces, but he also states that the married couple may have just been visiting relatives (Thai Rath), but this is at odds with the Bangkok Post news story and Channel 3′s Sahm Miti story (didn’t get a chance to see other TV news) where they spoke to people at the apartment saying that couple visited often and were with him when he started to rent the apartment. Police have stated today that they are unable to confirm whether they had any involvement (Matichon)

Government responses

Abhisit is quoted by the Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said he was saddened by the bomb explosion in an apartment building in Nonthaburi last night that killed three people and injured nine others.

“I have instructed security officials to expedite the investigation and clarify the incident to the public promptly,” Mr Abhisit said.

Suthep as quoted by DPA:

I believe the government can control the situation,’ Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said following the latest in a series of explosions suspected to be aimed at stirring up political turmoil in the country. ‘The situation is still normal.’

Other responses

Reuters:

Jatuporn Prompan, an opposition member of parliament and anti-government protest leader, chided police and government officials for linking the blast to the red shirt movement.

“It is irresponsible at best and sinister at worst. They haven’t presented any evidence,” Jatuporn told Reuters.

AFP:

“I believe that this is a vast conspiracy to destroy the Reds’ credibility,” said Red Shirt supporter Sean Boonpracong, echoing earlier comments by the movement’s leaders.

“There have to be bombings to sustain their ability to keep the decree. I think the Red Shirts are more preoccupied with taking care of themselves rather than trying to cause harm to the country,” he said.

What does the explosion mean?

VOA:

Somphob Manarangsan, an economist at Chulalongkorn University, expects political tensions to rise.

“From now on the situation is going to be worsening and become increasingly chaotic. We can see several [political] vacuums in the Thai politics,” said Somphob Manarangsan. “So that is why violence is going to be escalating, [in order] to shake the political stability led by the Democrat Party now.”
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Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, expects new clashes between the red shirts and security forces despite efforts by the top military officer, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, to promote national reconciliation.

“The question now is what the red shirts will do. If they continue [to protest] we will see more clashes and confrontation,” he said. “But if they somehow dissipate and fizzle out, if they buy into Prayuth’s reconciliation plan, we may see some way forward. But I think the risk is on the confrontation side.”

BP: BP is of the view that the explosion will negatively affect the red shirts and by extension Puea Thai. Thai Rath‘s political analysis for October 8, 2010 is entitled “อยู่เฉยๆระเบิดช่วย” (“Staying still and the explosion helps”). The substance of the analysis is that Abhisit is fortunate that the explosion has overtaken over issues. He is just sitting back and he gains the advantage. 

There is evidence that Samai was a red shirt whether he was a guard or not and to link to the explosion – his room, he signed the rental papers (as per a copy shown on Channel 3′s Sahm Miti news program), he has experienced with fixing electrical appliances, and he was in the room at the time. It does not suggest a very sophisticated operation – the rent on the apartment was a mere 1,000 Baht a month and the equipment shown on TV looks very rudimentary. Nevertheless, there is evidence and circumstantial evidence to support the government’s continued position that the red shirts are behind some of the various explosions. Where to now?