More than two weeks after polling day, it seems we will find out in the next few days who will form a minority government in Australia.

At times like these, for an untainted viewpoint, we look for guidance from the bookmakers. They have suspended betting, but favour a likely return of the Gillard Government on the back of support from Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. This is despite the fact that Tony Abbott’s Coalition won the most votes, won the most seats, will probably win the most votes after preferences, and won the most support in the seats of the deciding three independents.

What the independents have been telling us is that, apart from wad-loads of money for their local hospitals, stable government is high on their list of priorities.

But even if Labor manages to corral the 76 people it needs to form a majority in the House of Representatives, the potential problems are legion. As Kim Beazley has pointed out, the result is so close that the Prime Minister will not be able to powder her nose – much less represent Australia overseas – while the House is sitting, or risk returning to a law forbidding unmarried couples from living in the Lodge.

Another factor is that over the last 110 years, no fewer than 67 Members of Parliament have, in the manner of Monty Python’s parrot, become ex-MPs. They have ceased to be. They have approximated room temperature. They have become living-challenged. They have crossed over to that great taxpayer-funded junket in the sky. 

In fact, all it will take to make this Government nervous is a couple of sore throats and runny noses. It should be noted, though, that this unfortunate turn of events is roughly as likely to affect either side.

A more interesting scenario involves Arch Bevis’s claim that Kevin Rudd is likely to resign his seat within the next six months. This claim has a real ring of truth about it. Rudd is the member for the fairly safe seat of Griffith, but suffered a 9 percent swing against him in this election, and a by-election could be a very uncomfortable exercise for Labor.

The average two-party preferred swing against the government of the day over the last 110 years has been 4.0 percent. For an electorate that has been abandoned by a formerly popular local member  - who was stabbed in the back by the Prime Minister – it could reasonably be expected to be much uglier. If he finds himself in Government, those who betrayed Rudd may find themselves in the hilarious position of having to fete him in the same way they have feted the independents.

All of this means that if the Gillard Government is re-elected, we can expect Kevin to get nearly everything he wants. Unfortunately for  Kevin, what he wants is to feel like he is doing something terribly, terribly important overseas. Gillard will desperately want to grant his every wish, but needs him here for his vote. Ain’t irony ironic.

In the meantime, if we are to believe that Australia will have a stable government over the next three years, we are meant to believe that Andrew Wilkie will happily pass Labor laws involving armed forces doing anything anywhere, that Tony Windsor won’t be fussed passing laws about the mining tax or destroying rural communities down the Murray by taking their water, and that Adam Bandt’s idea of a good day in the House will be supporting the coal-fired power industry.

While stability is likely to be the independents’ justification for creating a Gillard minority Government, the harsh reality is that it currently looks as though it will be about as stable as a Christchurch chandelier.