Summary

Julia Gillard was more heavily criticised by Jonathan Green’s contributors to ABC online’s opinion sites, The Drum and Unleashed this week – but it was not nearly enough to prevent the third consecutive week of pronounced bias towards the Left and Julia Gillard during the election campaign.

We identified 69 statements critical of Gillard or her campaign and 22 that were positive – meaning there were three negative statements to every one positive for Gillard

However, Tony Abbott was criticised 65 times, but received only eight positive remarks, meaning negative comment ran against him by eight to one.

Most of Gillard’s critical statements came from the Left and those critical of her campaign – in particular, the “real Julia” gaffe, not of her policies. There was only one piece where she was substantially criticised from the right – an article with 10 critical mentions by Young Liberal, James Paterson.

However, ABC online’s contributors were once again gushing in her praise, telling us that Gillard has “an easy personal warmth”, and is “shrewd, tough and intelligent and with a modest manner”. Another commenter found that the insulation scheme, which caused four deaths and wasted billions of dollars “actually achieved some very successful outcomes in terms of retro-fitting Australian homes”.

The praise for Abbott was once again mostly grudging, and buried amongst otherwise negative sentiment. For example, Bob Ellis said “he has what Australian men and women quite like (as they do in Hawkie, Warnie and Kylie): flawed humanity,” but then goes on to say, “He believes that Muslims will burn for a billion years in Hell and is keen to give them a preview,” and “He left his pregnant girlfriend at the altar and is likely to treat his country no better.”

The analysis

Once again, for week three of the election campaign, we looked at all of the articles published at the ABC’s The Drum and Unleashed sites. Where there is an opinion expressed in a sentence about Julia Gillard (or her campaign) that is positive or negative, it is noted as G+ or G-. For Tony Abbott, it has the value A+ or A-. 

Many stories have a political leaning, but there is not a declarative statement made about one candidate or the other, so it is recorded as having nil positive or negative statements.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2975804.htm Dominic Knight:

Though she gave it a pretty good go with East Timor, the new PM barely had time to fail at anything. G-

I feel a little sorry for Julia Gillard. Sure, that might seem generous towards someone who’s shown enormous ruthlessness in recent weeks even by Labor’s lofty standards, but part of me can’t help but think she’s on a rough wicket. G- G+

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2974725.htm Peter Craven:

Well, the new Prime Minister facing election with the knife barely dry G-

his [Switzer’s] line on Gillard is that like Tony Abbott she’s presenting herself as a Conservative but the difference is that Abbott is what he presents himself as whereas with her there is the strongest risk of dissembling. A+ G-

doesn’t this raise the spectre, all but unthinkable in left liberal circles, that Abbott, however much you disagree with him, might make the better leader because at least he stands for something? A+

the presentation of the new Gillard style – expertly coiffed, the voice modulated to the softest of whines, the expensive tailoring – have airbrushed out any of the spikiness and spit of the old Gillard style as meticulously as the Woman’s Weekly photo shoot and we are left with an infinitely receding small target so mild and calculated (this is the paradox) that you wonder what chasms of autocratic tigerish-ness might lie beneath. G-

Still, the point remains that the mildness and blandness of the figure who seemed to be soaring towards the crown of re-election had something Uriah Heep-like about it G-

That she’s informal, has an easy personal warmth,.G+

Julia Gillard comes across as shrewd, tough and intelligent and with a modest manner. G+

It’s impressive that her friend Robyn MacLeod, the South Australian water commissioner, says that Julia Gillard drove for five hours to attend MacLeod’s mother’s funeral. G+

Does that make the reader feel a bit more like voting for Julia? Almost certainly. G+

Okay, the Prime Minister was there on television sounding rougher and tougher than she had appeared in a while, and that was kind of refreshing, but why on earth would she have to announce what she was doing? G- G+

http://blogs.abc.net.au/drumroll/2010/08/deals-rush-in-where-enemies-fear-to-tread.html John Hewson:

However, I equally doubt that we will actually see either the real Julia or the real Tony. G- A-

Abbott still has the advantage of simpler, more cut through messages. A+

So far, the new Julia, is returning to more of the old Julia, in danger of appearing to waffle in press conferences, and easily straying from daily positive messages back to attack Abbott. G-

I was surprised that Abbott simply ruled out a second debate, and with such a flimsy excuse as, “we set our program on the basis of just one debate”. Parties poll key marginal seats every night, and “programs” are adjusted regularly as a result.  Programs are evolutionary! A-

This week was much closer, probably marginally to Abbott. A+

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2975305.htm Thom Woodroffe:

Prior to becoming Prime Minister, Julia Gillard had a relatively subdued, and often strange, wardrobe that you could recognise on appearance. G-

In the last few months there has been a slow build-up in her collection, perhaps a sign of her rising ambition. G+

http://blogs.abc.net.au/drumroll/2010/08/this-is-a-political-escher-painting.html Luke Walladge:

The only person to emerge with any credibility from all this is Rudd himself. G-

if you were so good, why knife the PM? G-

Tony Abbott doesn’t deserve to be as close as he is and he knows it. A-

Peter Costello rated him so little he ruled him out as Treasurer in a potential Costello government. A-

Gillard and Swan might not be Hawke and Keating, but Abbott and Hockey aren’t even Gillard and Swan. A-

The ALP has better campaigners on the ground G+

The odds still favour a Gillard Prime Ministership, if by a whisper… but the whole sorry saga of Labor’s last 3 months should be an object lesson in listening to the wrong sort of advice. G+ G-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/06/2975115.htm?site=thedrum Scott Stephens:

It is hard to argue with Abbott’s assessment. Her campaign has gone from shambolic last week to outright manic this week, as the Prime Minister tries desperately to stop her hemorrhaging numbers. A+ G-

I couldn’t help but be reminded of Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, when the Mad Hatter says ruefully to Alice, “You used to be much more … ‘muchier’. You’ve lost your muchness!” G-

Now, it seems, the “real Julia” has decided that she can’t ignore the Christian vote. G-

In the eyes of many, her profession of “no faith” was one of the few statements of seemingly authentic conviction that Gillard has made in this campaign. G-

But this does raise serious questions concerning the authenticity of the Prime Minister’s appeal to a lobby that, prior to this week, she seemed not to think she needed. G-

http://blogs.abc.net.au/drumroll/2010/08/day-20-new-hope.html Malcolm Farnsworth:

He says there is a real buzz around Gillard. G+

The question mark hanging over Abbott’s attitude to industrial relations is a potent one, he believes.  A-

Contradictory comments by shadow ministers have fuelled the cynicism about the Opposition Leader’s intentions. A-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2974473.htm Ben Eltham:

Meanwhile, Abbott has made the gaffe most of us expected earlier in the campaign, with his smug “no means no” comments this week. A-

the ALP appears to have realised the bleeding obvious: that the government’s record on the economy is one of its trump cards. G+

As with so many of its other policies, this Labor government has proved spectacularly inept at explaining and defending its record on the economy. G-

It’s worth quoting Stiglitz’ comments on The 7.30 Report at length, because they comprehensively demolish the criticisms made of the Rudd Government’s stimulus package by the Opposition. A-

No matter that the Auditor-General comprehensively cleared Julia Gillard and the schools program.G+

This claim alone should disqualify Hockey from any serious economic role in an Abbott government. A-

When the stimulus package was voted on last year, Tony Abbott didn’t even turn up. He was absent, probably asleep, after a boozy dinner with Liberal colleagues when the crucial vote on the future of the Australian economy was taken. A-

In fact, the Liberals are all over the shop on economic policy. A-

They claim the new mining tax will harm investment, but they oppose the National Broadband Network, an obvious investment in future economic growth.  A-

They have promised to abolish the Enterprise Connect scheme, a government-funded innovation and advice service for small business. A-

Abbott’s policy position on issues like paid parental leave and the company tax rate seems to change daily. A-

Of his senior front-benchers, only Andrew Robb appears really across his economic brief. A-

And yet Labor has only now turned its attention to the issue. G-

Australian voters deserve to know what they might be in for if the Coalition wins government. A-

No matter that the home insulation program actually achieved some very successful outcomes in terms of retro-fitting Australian homes.G+

No matter that Australia not only escaped a significant downturn, but is powering ahead in comparison to our northern hemisphere cousins. G+

Bob Ellis: http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2974404.htm

It is worthwhile reflecting, meanwhile, how much better at ‘doing sincerity’ Rudd is than Gillard. G-

She seems evasive, wayward and under-informed, pulling out a merry laugh that has no equivalent in human behaviour like a dead rabbit out of a threadbare hat, and moves not a few of us to nausea. G-

Those female politicians that do not laugh (Helen Clark, Tanya Plibersek, Nicola Roxon, Verity Firth, Maxine McKew) look, currently, like better Prime Ministers than Gillard. G-

An adequate simulacrum of sincerity (a working substitute for integrity) has been Abbott’s most persuasive hidden weapon in the campaign thus far. A+ A-

Gillard professes to have very few emotions except lofty amusement and noble purpose.  G-

It does mean that he lacks gravitas – which she, curiously, has bags of, readily on call A- G+

…but he has what Australian men and women quite like (as they do in Hawkie, Warnie and Kylie): flawed humanity. A+

It is time, therefore, to look at his policies, lest we too be tempted to vote for him. A-

He proposes more troops for Afghanistan, which four out of five Australians want us out of. He judges the war in Iraq a good thing, and believes (he told me and a hundred witnesses in Gleebooks) the WMD may still turn up. He thinks the sending mad of children in Nauru an excellent thing, and proposes to send mad a good few more children there. He will make no apology to those kidnapped, imprisoned, tormented, defamed and humiliated refugees on the Tampa who are good Australian citizens now. He believes that Muslims will burn for a billion years in Hell and is keen to give them a preview.  A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A-

He rather likes WorkChoices and in Battlelines last year – only last year – said so. He believes Christ will return, and the earth burn, and global warming therefore need not concern us prior to then. He believes the power of prayer a greater unguent than Medicare whose usefulness, as our longest-serving Health Minister, he listlessly ran down. Twenty years ago when he was in his thirties he believed like his hero Howard in the abolition of Medicare, and it is an institution he may do no good if he is Prime Minister. Some things persist, and this voodoo mix of prayer, transubstantiation, physical exercise and drinking Christ’s blood on Sundays forebodes a man less attuned to modern medical practise than a civilised people might wish. A- A- A- A- A- A-

He believes pregnant women should get six months their wage on quitting work. This means if I employ my pregnant daughter for two weeks paying her two thousand dollars a week for that fortnight he will then give her fifty-two thousand dollars out of which she can pay me back. It means pregnant women in part-time jobs will get bugger-all and pregnant women who work longer hours (for their husbands, say, on big imaginary wages on family farms) will get a fortune. It will give hundreds of millions a year that might else be spent on, say, midwifery or live theatre to families who don’t need it. It means inflation (of course), lost jobs, working class resentment and all the rest of it, but it also means corruption, lots of corruption, big swags of corruption. Just like the roof batts. A-A- A- A- A- A-G-

He thinks foreign gougers of our national wealth should get endless increasing billions for having themselves never wielded a shovel nor driven a truck. He thinks tobacco moguls are selfless contributors to the Liberal Party who want nothing back. He thinks the hero of the Wharf Dispute was Peter Reith.  A- A- A-

He is not too sure most mornings what the deficit is and what calendar year he will put us in surplus. He holds sacred his right to change his mind. A- A-

 

He has a lot of charm and a good brain and a fair amount of acting talent but, as we pool players say, no character. He wears on his sweaty face the lineaments of an Artful Dodger. He left his pregnant girlfriend at the altar and is likely to treat his country no better.  A+A-A-A-

Is Gillard a finer character, then? Well, narrowly, perhaps. But she at least represents a party that got us out of, not into, Vietnam and Iraq, that did not impose the Birthday Ballot, sack Utzon, persecute Aborigines for twelve years and strive to gaol anyone declared to be a Communist and seize their property. She represents a good party, he a bad one, grown worse in recent years, and this should be known. G+A-G+A-

Is he running a better campaign? Of course he is. Does he deserve to win? No way. A+A-

He comes tentacled and slimed with too much Howardite sludge to be entirely trustworthy. A-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/05/2974190.htm Annabel Crabb:

When Tony Abbott decides to zip back to Melbourne in order to make a near-mute appearance on a popular television show to judge whether two dancing poodles are funnier than four singing toddlers…A-

Tony Abbott avows that WorkChoices is “dead, buried and cremated”, leaving us with a conviction politician who is happy to place his convictions on hold. A-

Julia Gillard floats the idea of processing asylum seekers in East Timor; this has the effect of waftily suggesting that she is for “tough” offshore solutions, without committing herself to anything. G-

Julia Gillard announces that she is changing her campaign style.You might think that it would be more sensible simply to change her campaign style, and wait for people to notice. G-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/05/2973837.htm Barrie Cassidy:

At the halfway mark of the election campaign Coalition strategists are convinced that “brand Gillard” has been damaged, maybe not irreparably, but certainly to the point where she cannot mount a sustained or a convincing comeback. G-

The good news, they say, is that even without the “world of hurt” inflicted by the leaks, Gillard does not have a coherent cut-through message that is coming up in focus groups. G-

Labor strategists, though a little shell shocked after the past week, insist that Gillard can turn the campaign around, and that is why the Prime Minister started this week with such a dramatic flourish. G+

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/04/2973419.htm Marieke Hardy:

Another person perhaps wishing they’d kept their recent opinions to themselves is Tony “Nobody respects women more than I do, with the exception perhaps of Mel Gibson and Sheik Al Hilaly” Abbott…A-

It’s still all rather predictable though, isn’t it? Of course Tony Abbott’s innately archaic views about women was going to eventually force its way out. A-

Possibly if the campaign ran for long enough he’d break entirely and start shrieking hysterically that Julia Gillard is a harlot who should be burned at the stake…A-

You can’t simply let a clumsy sexual gaffe like Abbott’s pass just because it makes the campaign “interesting”.A-

Anyway, Abbott’s made his idiotic point – again – and nobody is really surprised. A-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/04/2972716.htm Marius Benson:

…within a month, she seemed to be tracing an arc from hope to disappointment that took John Howard 12 years, and Kevin Rudd three. G-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/04/2972709.htm Annabel Crabb:

This election, in which Julia Gillard formally launches her election campaign just five days before it concludes, amounts to something of a record as far as I can tell…Rest assured that the longer they leave it, the more you are paying. G-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/02/2971143.htm Annabel Crabb:

It’s true that she already sounds better – less robotic, more like herself. G+

Her announcement today promising to cede greater control to school principals – though a bit short on detail – returns her to the policy area where she has shown the most gumption and spirit. G+

Up until now, Ms Gillard – for all her talk of moving forward – has been devoted to cleaning up behind herself. G-

Why do parents who hoped so much for teaching reforms have covered outdoor learning areas instead? G-

Can we please stop pretending that levels of government spending or marginal changes to the company tax regime are the main driving forces behind price rises in “a basket of food at Coles or Woollies”? G-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2974155.htm Glenn Milne:

His mere presence will also revive for both Labor and voters all the unwelcome memories about the brutal nature of his dispatch by his formerly “loyal” deputy in Gillard. G-

Surely his “generosity” invites the only honest response available from the “new” Julia: “So, what am I? Chopped liver?” G-

What she does have has been a series of bungles; boat people to be processed in East Timor, the mining tax “fix” an exercise in alienating a large slice of the sector which is now mounting a television campaign against Labor, and finally the unseemly execution of Kevin Rudd itself. G-

On the plus side of the narcissism strategy, Gillard and her minders – sorry, they’re not meant to be mentioned any more – know that in a face-to-face beauty contest Gillard still outpoints Abbott. G+ A-

But the base line is that Australians don’t much like anyone, let alone politicians, blowing their own trumpet which is what Gillard has overwhelmingly been on about since she tried to jump start her faltering campaign with an injection of pure ego. G-


http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2973556.htm Niki Savva:

If some of the tight management – or orthodoxy as she prefers to call it – which Julia Gillard fears is killing her campaign had been applied in Government and to policy formulation generally, she might not be in the diabolical trouble she is in now. G-

Gillard revealed her new self and renounced her old self – or should that be the other way round, it is very confusing – on Monday, but apart from jumping on the press bus what has changed? G-

She sounds happy, which will be reflected in her performance, and that will help a bit, but are her policies any less dopey. Not yet. G-

And it is not just the fault of the marketers and handlers that Labor is on the brink of disaster, although if they advised her to tell the world she was going to be herself, she should sack them immediately, then give herself a slap too for being silly enough to listen to them. G-

A full blooded discussion in Cabinet might have produced a better outcome. It is hard to imagine that it would be worse. G-

Then according to The Australian Financial Review on Monday, and showing she had learned nothing, Gillard failed to consult Cabinet…G-

Then the story emerged in The Australian at the weekend that as Acting Prime Minister Gillard sent a junior staffer to attend on her behalf. G-

So when Gillard claims she applied the utmost rigor to proposals put to Cabinet to boost pensions and introduce paid parental leave, we should take it with a bucket of salt, especially when you consider the lack of rigour applied to other programs, and especially in areas where she is directly responsible, like the schools building stimulus program. G-

They were – Kevin Rudd, Gillard, all of them really – just asking for trouble. G-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2972244.htm Andrew Hewett:

Julia Gillard herself is right when she says the cost of inaction greatly outweighs the cost of action. G+

Unfortunately, in the election costings the Coalition submitted to the Treasury on Friday, Tony Abbott has quietly cut at least $294 million from the aid budget. A-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2972095.htm Dominic Knight:

There’s been a lot to dislike about her campaign, so I’m not surprised Julia Gillard’s reaching for the ‘reset’ button. While Abbott’s surged, I doubt that’s because the electorate’s suddenly discovered an abiding affection for him. G- A-

And our aversion is so great that we’ll reward anyone who seems in any way sincere, even if they’re as wacky as the Greens or as conservative as Tony Abbott. A-

It backfired hugely, because the net result was that she appeared to stand for nothing. G-

When Julia Gillard talks about getting tough on asylum seekers, or Tony Abbott praises the status quo on industrial relations, it simply doesn’t ring true. G- A-

No fixed direction, and blown endlessly by the wind – it’s a perfect summary of Abbott’s recent reversals. A-

I doubt that Julia Gillard will successfully reinvent herself – and who would have predicted it would be Tony Abbott who seems to be running the more coherent, disciplined campaign? G- A+

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2972539.htm Bronwyn Hinz:

Is the “real Julia Gillard” actually Jeff Kennett in a slacks suit and pearls? G-

 

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2971777.htm James Paterson:

Make no mistake; Gillard’s confessional yesterday does indeed represent a stunning denunciation of the way the Labor campaign has been run so far. Gillard has effectively conceded the first two weeks of her campaign, not to mention her three weeks as Prime Minister, by admitting that she had inaccurately portrayed herself to the Australian people up until now.  G- G-

It is an act of desperation from a campaign that has managed to completely squander a not insignificant 55-45 two-party preferred Newspoll lead in just a fortnight.  G-

Yet ironically, this awkward attempt at a campaign circuit-breaker is undoubtedly the product of the very spin doctors, campaign consultants and political experts it supposedly displaced. G-

No doubt Labor’s focus groups will have been picking up the unprecedented voter cynicism and distrust of the government which the published opinion polls hint at via higher levels of expressed voter dissatisfaction with Julia Gillard. G-

Gillard has been afflicted with much the same disease, as evidenced by a series of policy positions many voters suspect she does not actually believe in, most obviously her so-called tough border protection policies. She could have hardly started the campaign on a worse note with her monotonous repetition of “moving forward”, which quickly became identified as a transparently shallow political slogan and the subject of much derision. Expect the “real” Julia to quickly drop this phrase from her vocabulary. G-G- G-

Will Labor continue to distribute a campaign “cheat sheet” of pre-designated attacks on the Liberal Party to its key frontbenchers?G-

Will her campaign launch speech be peppered with the usual meaningless platitudes…G-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2970829.htm Jeff Sparrow:

Gillard was, of course, a central player in the Rudd administration, and her fingerprints were all over the government’s more notorious vacillations. G-

More importantly, since deposing her leader, Gillard’s shown that, when it comes to Rudd-style spin, the pupil has now surpassed the master. G-

Would it really have been so hard to win an argument for taxes on the super rich? G-

Even worse, Gillard signalled to vested interests of all sorts that, if they didn’t like government decisions, they simply had to make a bit of a fuss to get those decisions changed. G-

The masterminds behind the Gillard spill are the same kind of risk averse, policy-free technocrats who have dominated the Labor Party and the unions, even as both continue to haemorrhage members. G-

The official Gillard campaign slogan is, of course, ‘Moving Forward’. But it might equally have been, ‘Follow those lemmings! They seem to know where they’re going!’ G-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2970672.htm Glenn Milne:

It just might explain why Julia Gillard’s campaign is on the brink of failure. G-

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2974575.htm