BP: Note the below post is not by BP, but BP had prepared a post on a similar topic so will add it at the end.

 

By James Harriman,


In a few weeks time, Bangkok will hold an important by-election to replace the late Democrat MP Thewa Ngernyuang. The election is likely to serve as a local referendum on the military crackdown and fires that engulfed Bangkok in May. The Democrat Party is the early frontrunner based on results from the 2007 election, though it’s certainly not a lock.

 

The upcoming contest is for constituency 6, covering Nong Jauk, Khlong Samwa, Kanayao, and Bueng Kum districts. In the 2001 and 2005 elections these districts were separate single-member constituencies, as per the 1997 Constitution. In 2007, the new Constitution combined the districts into one multi-member constituency. Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party swept the constituencies in 2001 and 2005, while in 2007 the Democrats took the top two spots, with Thaksin-backed People’s Power Party (now Puea Thai) finishing third (see results below).

 

In this election, Puea Thai’s Korkaew Pikulthongpit will face off against Democrat Party candidate Panit Vikitsreth. The PAD yellow shirts had earlier planned to run General Kittisak Ratprasert under the New Politics Party, but he has since withdrawn. Kittisak’s departure is probably a sign the PAD and Democrats don’t want to split the vote, as this would benefit Puea Thai in what’s expected to be a close race.

 

Puea Thai’s Korkaew, also a UDD leader, is currently being held in Bangkok Remand Prison on terrorism charges relating from the red shirt’s May protest. He will likely remain in jail for the duration of the contest. Whether this helps or hinders his campaign is debatable. Korkaew’s campaign financing capabilities are also in question. After the May protest and crackdown, authorities either froze or placed heavy restrictions on his bank account, along with 83 other suspected red shirts. Korkaew has since opened a new account through a Bangkok Bank representative at the jail, while his lawyer says he will request that CRES lift restrictions on his assets.*

 

The Democrat’s candidate Panit is a former Bangkok Metropolitan Authority deputy governor, having served from 2004 to 2008. He recently resigned his post as deputy foreign minister to run in the election. He is not considered a “superstar” candidate nor has he previously run in the constituency. In fact, both parties have deferred putting up big name candidates in order to pre-empt any major loss of face should their candidate lose.

 

The Democrat Party, again, is the odds on favorite, having finished at the top of the pack in 2007. According to Matichon Weekly, “The Democrats have the advantage because, in addition to being the party in power, they still hold power in Bangkok.” In the 2007 general election, 27 of the city’s 36 seats went to the Democrat Party. Other important advantages noted by Matichon include: continuation of the emergency decree, government control of Korkaew’s money, and ubiquitous government-run media showing the “reds burn the country” story, while not mentioning the deaths of 90 people during the military crackdown.

 

One factor not mentioned by Matichon, but worth considering, is the vote-base of Thanakan Damrongrat. Thanakan is the younger brother of former Deputy Finance Minister and Puea Pandin Party member Pruttichai Damrongrat. The Democrats removed Pruttichai in the recent cabinet reshuffle. Interestingly, Thanakan ran seventh as a Puea Pandin candidate in the 2007 election, garnering 18,705 votes. Will Puea Pandin voters, especially those behind Thanakan, vote Puea Thai to punish the Democrats for sacking Thanakan’s brother? If so, will it be enough to sway the election one way or the other? Of course this is just one scenario, and it’s equally plausible that voters from the coalition parties (Chart Thai, Bhum Jai Thai, etc.) could vote Democrat and moot out the Puea Pandin votes.

 

In the end, the election seems likely to boil down to the events of May. A Democrat win, with a similar margin of victory as in 2007 (plus coalition votes), will indicate that neither side has been moved politically by the May turmoil. A Democrat loss, however, will signal public disapproval of the crackdown and the government’s reconciliation plan. It would be an unmitigated disaster to say the least. For Puea Thai, a loss by a substantial margin will serve as a strong rebuke to its May protest. It will also throw into question its control over its remaining Bangkok seats and those in nearby provinces for the next election. 

 


Post Today, “กางสถิติเลือกตั้งกทม.เขต 6″, June 28, 2010

Matichon Weekly, “เสื้อยืด รองเท้าแตะ ก่อแก้ว พิกุลทอง”, July 2, 2010

Election Commission Results, 2007


 

 

 

 

*It’s somewhat ironic that Bangkok Bank is the intermediary given that it is a “hated target” of many a red shirt.


By James Harriman

Independent Political Analyst

Washington, D.C.

harrimanjay@yahoo.com

 

BP’s post, actually drafted last week, is below:

 

A by-election is scheduled in Bangkok on July 25 to replace a recently deceased Democrat MP.After there were initial hints that Puea Thai would select Nattawut, one of the key UDD leaders, they instead went for a less prominent UDD leader Korkaew, who is resident in the area. The Bangkok Post:

Mr Vicharn, chairman of Bangkok opposition MPs, said the party decided to field Mr Korkaew instead of Mr Natthawut because he is fully qualified and has long lived in the constituency, which encompasses Bang Kum, Khanna Yao, Khlong Samwa and Nong Chok districts.

The party feared that Mr Nathawut might not be eligible since he is not a native of Bangkok. The requirement for him to reside in Bangkok  for at least five consecutive years  in order to qualify may also pose a problem and need a decision by the Constitution Court.

Puea Thai’s lawyers would seek Mr Korkaew’s release on bail  to enable him to register for candidacy on Monday, June 28, Mr Vicharn said.

Both Mr Korkaew and Mr Natthawut are among the 11 UDD leaders and red guards being detained at Bangkok Remain Prison and Klong Prem Prison after being charged with terrorism.

BP: Korkaew was allowed to register his candidacy this morning, but was to be promptly returned to jail. Korkaew is an interesting choice as he was always included in the moremoderate wing of the red shirt leadership, along with Veera and Weng, and off the top of BP’s head can’t think of anything inflammatory that he has said.

While there was a suggestion that that the Democrats may allow the daughter of a beer tycoon to run, they have instead for a safer choice of Panich as the Bangkok Post reports:

Mr Panich started his career as an analyst at Siam Cement Co, now Siam Cement Group, in 1986. His last business position before turning to politics in 2004 was as executive director and chief investment officer at Ayudhya JF Asset Management.
…
While in this government, he has been seen as a right hand man of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, who gave him the post of vice minister for foreign affairs.

He has helped Mr Kasit lobby countries to curb the activities of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has criticised the Abhisit government from exile abroad

BP: None of the the Democrat’s coalition partners turned up to register their candidacy (this is what has happened in previous by-elections where the best candidate from the coalition competes with the Puea Thai candidate). The PAD’s political party, New Politics Party, had selected a candidate to run, but within 24 hours candidate withdrew as the Bangkok Post reports:

At a press conference  today at the party headquarters, Gen Kittisak said he decided to withdraw  after realising that Korkaew Pikulthong, a United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship leader charged with terrorism, would also be a contender for the seat, as the Puea Thai candidate.

He said there had already been attempts to use the by-election to instigate another round of unrest.

He apologised People’s Alliance for Democracy core members and the NPP executive committee for his about-face, saying he did not want the NPP to go down in history as having  once contested an election against a “terrorist”.

BP: So when the prominent red shirt leader Nattawut was the likely candidate, he didn’t seem to mind, but when the more moderate Korkaew is chosen by Puea Thai, it is time to pull out?  Of course though, it seems not all terrorist suspects are equal. Puea Thai have been screaming collusion as the Bangkok Post reports:

Puea Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said yesterday his party’s legal team is investigating the withdrawal of Kittisak Ratprasert from the by-election in Bangkok’s Constituency6.

The poll is being held to choose a replacement for former Democrat MP Thiwa Ngernyuang, who died of cancer on June 11.

Mr Prompong said he will lodge the petition with the EC tomorrow asking it to find out who will benefit from any collusion between the two parties and to find out if a politician with the initial “Ch” has asked New Politics to withdraw from the by-election.

Gen Kittisak’s withdrawal will leave the contest in Constituency 6 a two-horse race between Democrat candidate Panich Vikitsreth, who has resigned as vice-minister for foreign affairs to run in the election, and Puea Thai candidate Korkaew Pikulthong.

BP: The Ch is clearly meant to refer Chuan.* If the Democrats were clearly going to win the seat then accusations of collusion would make no logical sense. So this begs the questions, how competitive is Constituency 6? The only information we have is from the 2007 General Election when the then PPP party competed against the Democrats and others. While the Democrats mostly swept Bangkok, things were quite close in Constituency 6. The 7 candidates who received the highest number of votes is below (the constituency is a multi-member seat and 3 MP seats were up for grabs – this means the top 3 vote-getters became MPs):

Democrat candidate, 108,944
Democrat candidate 107,058 (Deceased candidate)
PPP candidate, 102,126
Democrat candidate, 98,604
PPP candidate, 98,561
PPP candidate, 93,305
Puea Paendin candidate, 9,426

Source: Original EC figures can be found in this large ZIP file with multiple spreadsheets

BP: You see that things were fairly competitive in 2007. Now, of course there have been some changes since then. Bhum Jai Thai and others have left Puea Thai, the coalition partners won’t be contesting, and last, but not least, the recent red shirts protests and burning of buildings, but also the deaths of almost 90 people so there is no guarantee that things will be close this time around. However, let’s be realistic, if the New Politics Party’s candidate had competed, this would have reduced the Democrat vote total. Even the Democrats concede this, per the Bangkok Post:

Thepthai Senpong, personal spokesman for the Democrat Party leader, admitted that the decision by the New Politics Party to contest the poll could affect support for the Democrats. Some of Democrat supporters might turn to  the New Politics Party.

Now, while publicly the Democrats were still confident before the withdrawal of the New Politics Party’s candidate, privately they admitted concerns. The Bangkok Post’s Terry Fredrickson tweeted:

On the program, BKK Post editor-in-chief Pichai said Dem party source told him party poll indicated they would lose const 6 if NPP was race.

BP: For James’ numbers, on the right-hand column above, you need to divide by three as voters received 3 votes. If BP was to make an educated guess, the Democrats will win by by about 20,000 votes and as long as the New Politics Party candidate didn’t contest it is fairly safe for the Democrats. Now, if he had contested, things would likely have been very, very close and we could have seen almost open political warfare between the Democrats and the PAD. Some new local and national factors may influence the race in the final few weeks, but it will be a mammoth task for Puea Thai to win. The question is, how close will they get?

*Gen. Kittisak is a forrmer Democrat candidate and served as an aide for Chuan between 1997-2000 – see here and here (this was mentioned in Thai Rath’s political analysis a week or so ago, but didn’t save the article link).