Dr Sumit Champrasit, Secretary-General of the Institute of Sufficiency Economy, in an op-ed in the Bangkok Post looks at different options on what will happen next. He lists 4 options: (1) Negotiation ends with a compromise solution; (2) Parliamentary dissolution; (3) Red shirts slip and call it off; and (4) Another coup. Key excerpt:

Since the beginning, the government, with good preparation, has launched a public warning of the red shirts’ propensity for violence; this has proven effective as the Bangkokian middle class and media got scared and began rejecting the red shirts from the start. The blood donation which resulted in an “artificial bloodshed” in front of Government House only added to the spectre of violence. But 10 days into their demonstration, and the red shirts have shown they intend no such violence. The red shirts have played their game well so far by alienating the violent and anti-monarchy group from their protest, thus making a clearer standing point since last Saturday, that their approach is a peaceful one, and that some of the problems they have been debating are real problems which the government has not done anything about.

In terms of content, the government’s approach has lacked reliability, e.g. their unproven warning of violence by the reds, and the untrue accusation that Thaksin spent 3 million baht for the reds to throw excrement in front of the prime minister’s house. Such lack of reliability has failed the public, and we see more and more Bangkokians begin to ignore government warnings and join the red shirts’ event in the evenings. Perhaps it is time for the government to change its angle and be more responsive to the daily situation.

There are three layers of opinion as far as the urban population is concerned: first, the anti-red shirts account for one-third of Bangkokians; second, the purely red shirts account approximately for another one-third; the remaining one-third are the undecided “go-with-the-flow” segment. This is in line with previous statistics that out of the 4.14 million Bangkok voters, 30% chose the Democrat Party and 26% chose the People’s Power Party (now defunct); the rest mostly did not come to cast their ballot. So, there are huge numbers of red supporters in Bangkok itself, should the red shirts be able to maintain a minimum gathering of about 20,000 people in the evenings and double or triple this number at the weekend.

If the government’s failure in tactics persists, this will leave an opportunity for the red shirts to gain in critical mass and, who knows, that may just be enough to unavoidably force the government towards a parliamentary dissolution by itself. As mentioned earlier, our prime minister also would not like to take on too much risk.

BP: Have checked the EC figures and he is correct there were 4.14 million Bangkok voters in 2007, but can’t find the breakdown on the party vote for Bangkok. For Bangkok and 2 surrounding provinces, it was 51% for Dems and 41% for PPP – that is of the votes cast and not of all Bangkokians so if extrapolate from that his figures seem roughtly correct.

Unless there is widespread violence and/or the succession issue, BP doesn’t see a coup happening. Not sure you will Abhisit on his own deciding to dissolve parliament – you have the army reshuffle coming up with the new Army C-in-C coming in on October 1 so BP doesn’t see a dissolution happening before then.

So this leaves you the red shirts slipping or a compromise. The red shirts slipping is always possible, but BP sees one option for a compromise. A journalist raised with Dr. Weng in a UDD presser on March 14 whether the red shirts would accept a promise by Abhisit in 3 months time and he said yes. BP doubts Abhisit (and cough the army cough) would accept the 3 month timeline, but what about a promise to dissolve within 6 months (decision is made at beginning of April) or by the end of the year? This would make it more difficult for both sides to reject. The reds want a dissolution now, but a promise to dissolve by the end of the year is more difficult for the reds to reject. The coalition partners don’t want a dissolution now, but once the military reshuffle is resorted and another budget with the coalition partners getting their hands on more goodies to “hand” out. This would mean the Dems would have had about 2 years in office. They have a chance to see their policies implemented.

*He has worked as an advisor to Thaksin beween 1999-2001 (he was also an advisor to DTAC at the same time!), but also to the Democrat’s Korbasak last year.