Chang Noi on the red shirts in The Nation:

For a start it has been unsettling for many people because it was simply so big...The logistics are a lot more difficult and expensive when the rally site is hundreds of kilometres away. Provincial governors were ordered to obstruct the movement of people. Police set up countless checkpoints. Pro-Newin elements in the northeast laid on entertainment and issued threats to deter people from leaving for the capital. The media carried reports about money distributed to protesters to move. None carried reports about the money spent to prevent them moving. Despite all these efforts, downtown Bangkok was a sea of red. The 10-kilometre column from Rajdamnoen to Phaholyothin broke records.

Red March was unsettling also because (so far) it has truly been non-violent.…Partly this orderliness is due to the police who invested enormous efforts in keeping the traffic moving. This effort betrays considerable sympathy within the force for the red-shirt cause � another thing that is unsettling. The lack of violence is all the more remarkable given the disorganised state of the redshirt leadership. These were supposed to be the rural hordes, the barbarians at the gates, the great unwashed, red in tooth and claw. But there was no sign of ploughs beaten into swords, let alone barbed wire, gun-toting “guards”, or piles of used golf clubs.

BP: BP has also seen on at least two occassions on TV and also reported in the print media, the police visited the red shirt leaders for details on what route they would take the following day. On each occassion, it was reported that information was shared and hence the police were able to make more informed decisions so as to re-route other traffic etc.

Chang Noi continues:

Red March was worrying also because of the number of pick-up trucks. The protesters were supposed to be the downtrodden. And the thing about the downtrodden is that they really are trodden down into resignation, passivity, deference. They can usually be ignored or easily managed. But these were the aggrieved with assets. Of course many foot soldiers of the movement do count among the least well off. But the social range of the protesters is much wider than the simple analysis of the poor against the privileged. In the far north and the northeast, it is not just the poor who support the red shirts but just about everybody.

Most of all, Red March was disturbing because of the enormous show of local support in Bangkok. From the moment the columns of pick-ups began arriving in the city, people gathered on the pavement to clap and cheer and wave in welcome. Some of these fans were taxi drivers and motorcycle taxi riders, the movement’s staunch allies. But others were true-blue Bangkokians. All along the route to Phaholyothin people came out of shops and offices to line the street and cheer… Alongside, people had come to windows, or onto office balconies, or out from shops onto the pavement. Most had snatched up anything red to wave along a tie, a towel, a hat, a piece of paper. The press and the pundits have played the conflict as the provinces against the city. But how does that analysis fit with these pavement scenes?

BP: BP’s view is that many of these Bangkok supporters are the lower urban middle classes (think of convenience store workers, waitresses and other occupations which don’t require a university degree). They are not on the poverty line. The same applies for those up-country. Most cannot afford a passenger vehicle/sedan. Motorcycles are the most common form of transport, but pick-up trucks are everywhere and can be necessary for some because of business and as they are significantly cheaper than sedans so they are the next step up from a motorcycle. Hence, the reason for the pick-up trucks – also they serve as a good way of transporting people and were necessary to prevent buses hired suddenly no longer being available to hire after the owner came under political pressure.

You also have the nouveau riche who often come up against the established elite. This is what really the ammat is about. It can be translated as elite, but BP thinks aristocrat is the better word. It is the older established elite. Thanong did a breakdown of the red shirts and while earlier in his blog post he makes reference to a number of red shirts being part of the ammat or associated with it then later when in the breakdown (you have to scroll down) you come to:

8. Red-Shirted Ammat: Many Ammats have turned Red because they are confused who they are and what they really want. Thanphuying Viriya Chavakul is one of the ultimate Ammat insiders. She has turned Red.

BP: She famously fell out with the ammat and was seemingly banished (well, say seemingly because of the later lunch). You could put Samak in this category who fell out with Prem in the early 80s and many others too. Once you have seen how the system works and you have been at the table with ammat, can you not then criticise it? It can be easier to dislike something once you have seen it firsthand.

Chang Noi continues:

In Chang Noi’s neighbourhood, there’s a worker community. They used to be pro-Democrat because the local Democrat politicians helped them to get residence rights and basic services. They served as Democrat canvassers in several elections. They are now deep red. In the evenings, the kids come out to play on the street. For a year now, one of their favourite games has been “street protest.” They march up and down and wave flags. They shout “No more double standards,” “Down with amat ,” and “Abhisit out.” They are not in any hurry to move off the road to allow a car to pass. Their average age is around ten.
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Instead of reportage we got endless predictions of a bad ending. The numbers are increasing, so it will turn violent. The numbers are dropping, so it will turn violent. The temperature is high, so tempers will snap.

Red March has been disturbing because it has messages so striking that they slip through the walls. Despite government efforts using taxpayers’ money, it was huge. Despite the chaotic state of the red movement’s leadership, it held together through fellow feeling. Despite the conventional analyses, the support spreads far beyond the rural poor. Hard to ignore despite those bricks.

BP: Essentially BP agrees. Because of the lower than expected numbers, the reds failed with the knockout punch to pressure the Democrat’s coalition partners from switching camps so from this perspective it was a “failure”. However, BP sees this as a short-term failure, but in the medium to long-term the red shirts will have gained because the protest so far has not been violent.