Thai Rath’s political analysis for March 21 is entitled “ถอยคนละก้าว หาจุดลงตัว” (Take one step back to find the middle ground) is summarized below:

It is fortunate that the only blood spilled last week was done voluntarily by the red shirts in a manner of an activity and not through fighting. The situation today is that the red shirts will continue in their protests. Some return home, but then more reinforcements arrive.

The reds long caravan moved around Bangkok on Saturday asking Bangkokians to come out onto the streets to support them in their class conflict. While there are those with untoward intentions firing the M79 grenades, there have been no violent incidents in the red shirt rallies. The government has put in place security measures, but there are many in Bangkok who are concerned especially those who live in the vicinity of the main red shirt rally. Others don’t want to go outside as they are concerned about traffic problems.

For the government, the Cabinet are afraid of the red shirts besieging the meeting. For parliament, the PM and government MPs are not turning up.

The red shirts leaders have stated the protests will continue peacefully.

Many in the social sector are looking for a solution. You also have the House of Representatives and Senate Speaker likewise looking for a solution and for discussion in parliament.

The government is also looking at negotiations as long as it doesn’t involve Thaksin. The red shirts have also said they agree with negotiations, but it must be direct negotiations. It is good that both sides agree to negotiate to find a solution, but it is unlikely they will be able to.

The political desk of Thai Rath would like both sides to negotiate as quickly as possible. Abhisit, as the head of the government, should lead the negotiations. Whatever conditions that each side have should then be put on the table for the public to see clearly.

However, last year, after a parliamentary committee recommended that six provisions of the constitution be amended Puea Thai pulled out. Nevertheless, the stakes now are more serious so it is unlikely the same problem would arise again.

Some are sceptical whether the negotiations would end in a positive outcome. Reuters:

But analysts said the stakes were too high for both sides and talks were unlikely to produce any compromise.

“There’s nothing to talk about,” said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Thammasat University.

“The minimum the ‘red shirts’ will accept is house dissolution and the government will not yield to that. The root cause of the problem will not be addressed and talks will just pave the way for more protests and upheaval in future.”

WSJ:

Protest leaders, though, say they are only willing to discuss Thailand’s chronic political problems directly with Mr. Abhisit after the prime minister appointed Education Minister Chinnaworn Boonyakiat to handle the discussions. “We will talk only with the prime minister,” Jatuporn Prompan, one of the three main protest leaders, told reporters.

Thai Rath today quotes red shirt leader Nattawut as stating that the red shirts are prepared to negotiate to find a peaceful solution to the problem, but as power rests with the PM we want to negotiate with him directly. He states we are not the underling of anyone so don’t want to negotiate with Abhisit’s underling. As Abhisit is the sole person with power to dissolve parliament we want to talk to him.

BP: Now, it will depend on how flexible each side is perceived to be. Both sides have said they will negotiate, but have various conditions. Do the red shirts require an immediate dissolution (Dr. Weng said last week a mere promise to dissolve parliament three months into the future was ok)? Will the government even put the dissolution onto the table? If Abhisit agrees to meet a red shirt representative, what will the reds be willing to compromise on?

As Abhisit is the PM and he has made a concession to enter into negotiations, the red shirts should meet the Education Minister at least once to see what the groundwork for negotiations will be.