There is a new Bangkok University poll asking those surveyed their views on how to handle the current situation with Cambodia and their views of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s interview with The Times (UK) (see blog post here about the interview). The Bangkok Post has an article about the poll here; the Thai language version of the poll can be found here.

Methodology

The poll was conducted November 11-12 surveying 1,218 persons in Bangkok and 3 surrounding provinces. The poll oversamples younger people (21.1% younger than 25, but only 27% aged over 46) and those with a university education (46% have a university degree).

Q1: What is your opinion of Times Online’s interview of Thaksin which had content affecting the high institution [monarchy]?
-Believe that Thaksin intended to say what was in the interview: 35.1% [Bangkok Post translates this as intentionally criticized the monarchy]
-Believe that Thaksin didn’t intend to say that, he was careless: 20% [Bangkok Post translates this as no intention to do so].
-Unsure he had: 44.9% [Bangkok Post translates this as not sure he actually did]

BP: The wording of this question is not exactly precise and is leading – it assumes it did have content affecting the high institution, but this is the only poll on this issue and it shows you there is no singular view on the interview.

Q2: Your feelings now about Thaksin?
a- no real feeling, passive: 29.3%
b- dislike, disatisifed with: 26.6%
c- feel sympathy for: 18%
d- disappointed in: 15%
e- admire: 6.7%
f- others: 3.7%

BP: Again, not the best wording. Interesting that 29.3% are passive and have no feelings either way. The negatives for Thaksin are (b) and (d) which add up to 42%. Thaksin’s support is (c) and (e), 25%. This, of course, in Bangkok and surrounding provinces only where Thaksin doesn’t have as much support.

Q3. Are you satisfied with Abhisit over the handling of Thaksin’s interview with The Times and the appointment of Thaksin as economic advisor?
a- very satisifed: 13.6%
b- somewhat satisifed: 27.8%
c- not so satisfied: 39%
d- not satisifed at all: 18.2%
e- no opinion: 1.4%

BP: Of course, those in (c) and (d) are certainly are not all red shirts, you probably have both yellow and red shirts who are not happy. There is no real way to discern, who is who, but it is interesting that only 13.6% are very satisifed while 39% are not so satisifed. That is among Bangkokians and those living close by as well.

Q4. What should be the position of the Abhisit governent on relations between Thailand and Cambodia?
a- soft approach by negotiating: 61.5%
b- aggresive approach – do whatever it takes for the honour and dignity of the country: 21%
c- unsure, no opinion: 17.8%

BP: This seems clear. The nationalists are at 21%

Q5. Should Thailand stop its assistance projects to Cambodia?
a- no: 41.4%
b- yes: 40.4%
c- unsure: 18.%

BP: Again, very divided.

Q6. Should Thailand cancel the MOU between Thailand and Cambodia on oil and gas?
a- yes: 41.2%
b- no: 36.1%
c- unsure: 22.7%

BP: Again, very divided.

Q7. Should Thailand continue with the extradition proceedings against Thaksin?
a- yes: 55%
b- no: 29%
c- unsure: 15.8%

BP: Fairly clear.

Q8. Should Thailand close the Thai-Cambodian Border?
a- yes: 19.8%
b- no: 68.6%
c- unsure: 11.6%

BP: So what happened to the 2% of people who are for the government to take harsh measures, but not to close the border? Again, fairly clear against taking measures which are deemed too harsh.

         ปิดด่านชายแดนไทย — กัมพูชา
         เห็นด้วย                                                      ร้อยละ 19.8
         ไม่เห็นด้วย                                                    ร้อยละ  68.6
         ไม่แน่ใจ                                                      ร้อยละ  11.6

Q9. What do you want the Abhisit government to do the most?
a- think about the benefits to the country, more than that of the party: 32.3%
b- don’t forget about solving other problems, economics and corruption: 28.6%
c- dissolution and new elections: 19.5%
d- give support to Abhisit to continue: 15.7%

BP: (a) and (b) pose problems for the government. It shows what BP views as them overplaying their hand. Thaksin has mentioned a few times, to the Bangkok Post and on twitter, the “Wag the dog” movie about the government creating a diversion internationally to avoid domestic problems. The government could have downplayed the controversy after recalling the ambassador, but you have very nationalistic rhetoric and continued talk about Thaksin, yet for many people they would prefer the government to focus on real problems.