The poll is here.

Survey Data Methodology: 4,286 households in 27 provinces surveyed 22-24 October (กรุงเทพมหานคร สมุทรปราการ ปทุมธานี ลพบุรี ฉะเชิงเทรา ชลบุรี สระแก้ว  ยโสธร ศรีสะเกษ อุบลราชธานี ขอนแก่น  อุดรธานี สกลนคร  หนองคาย น่าน เชียงใหม่  เชียงราย นครสวรรค์  สุโขทัย พิษณุโลก สมุทรสาคร กาญจนบุรี สุพรรณบุรี สุราษฎร์ธานี  นครศรี ธรรมราช  ยะลา และนราธิวาส)

BP: Normally, only around 17 provinces are surveyed so this is a significant increase.

By gender: 50.8% women and 49.2% men

By age:

  • those under 20 (8%),
  • those aged 20-29 (23.3%),
  • those aged 30-39 (27.7%),
  • those aged 40-49 (23.7%)
  • those aged 50+ (17.3%)

By education: 76.5% have less than a bachelor’s degree, 21.9% have a bachelor’s degree, 1.6% have a higher degree.

By profession: 31.8% are farmers/contractors, 29.6% are traders/self-employed, 12.2% work for private enterprises, 9.2% are civil servants/state enterprise employees, 7.2% are housewives/househusbands/retired, 6.2% are students and 3.8% didn’t specify a job/unemployed.

BP: You may have noted BP’s general poll disclaimer about a slight Democrat lean for polls. However, this poll, compared to previous surveys, surveys a higher number of those without a bachelor’s degree compared to those with a bachelor’s degree and farmers/contractors, so do NOT think there is any Democrat lean in this poll.

Q1. Which politician do you support to be PM?

A. Thaksin 25%
B. Abhisit 21.6%
C. Neutral 53.4%

BP: In the previous poll at the end of July, it was A. Thaksin 34% B. Abhisit 32.9% C. Did not specify either, 33.1%. It is a little surprising that both of them have basically dropped 10 points each with neutrals up significantly. This shows niether side is gaining. However, there is a difference in the wording of the question. Prevoiusly, it was “who do you like/favor more between Thaksin and Abhisit?” (NOTE: This is why BP translates/summarizes opinion polls because if the wording changes, it does matter).

Q2. Which politician do you support to be PM? (by region)

  North Central Northeast South Bkk
Thaksin 33.6 20.2 35.5 3.4 21.9
Abhisit 15.3 22.7 11.2 53.6 17.4

BP: Details of the previous poll at the end of July on who do you live/favor are below:

  North Central Northeast South Bkk
Thaksin 32.9 32.9 44.5 8 36.2
Abhisit 28.8 36.5 18.4 66.3 41.4

BP:Interesting with the different wording and time passing. Thaksin now does better than Abhisit in Bangkok. Abhisit has dropped from 41.4% to 17.4% in Bangkok although this is mainly people moving to “neutral”. He is also down in the North, whereas Thaksin is almost unchanged.

Also, in the poll, of interest to BP, as had told someone on Saturday that thought that Chavalit had come out of everything better than Thaksin, Abhisit or Hun Sen, was the final question in the poll.

Q3. Do you agree or disagree with the visit by Chavalit to Cambodia?

A. Agree 42.9% (for reasons such as believe in intentions of Chavalit, will benefit the country, etc)
B. Disagree, 40.2% (should not interfere, creates confusion, etc).
C. No opinion, 16.9%

BP: Chavalit did put his foot in the mouth slightly by talking about the house for Thaksin, but as has already blogged, he didn’t launch into a rhetorical attack on the Abhisit government. He is trying to ignore Abhisit. This seems to be the new Puea Thai strategy and I am not surprised that it is doing better in the current environment. Chavalit’s behavior hardly necessitated this extraordinary attack in an editorial in The Nation:

General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who has a penchant to stir the hornet’s nest, should be condemned for internationalising a domestic issue for his own benefit. Giggling at reporters while talking on the phone with Thaksin, Chavalit showed how puerile he could be, or perhaps how low the former premier and Army chief could stoop. It’s hard to fathom his behaviour, except that desperate situations call for desperate acts.

BP: Needless to say, should one be surprised that The Nation is out-of-step with the public at large?

NOTE: To be clear when BP labels the questions as Q1, Q2 etc, that is not the real order of questions. There are more questions than these, but these are the questions that I wanted to highlight.