Actually, I think there are two such “straws”. The other being the ISOC Bill passing in its current form, but the “straw” I want to talk about in this post is Gen. Sonthi entering politics to run in this year’s election.You could say it would be his Shin Corp moment or as someone has said he would be “doing a Suchinda”.

The speculation that Gen. Sonthi will run in this year’s election has been immense. Gen. Sonthi seems to be studying whether he can continue his role as a candidate and head of the CNS as The Nation reports:

Sonthi will retire as Army commander-in-chief at the end of September and quit as chairman of the Council for National Security (CNS) when an elected government assumes power after the national poll, expected to he held in December.

The Nation reports on the likely party that Gen. Sonthi will join:

Pinit Jarusombat, Suwat Liptapanlop and Preecha Laohapongchana, who have formed a Thai Rak Thai splinter group, are said to be planning to register a Rak Chat (Patriotic) party with backing from General Winai Phattiyakul, one of the CNS leaders.

Rak Chat, it is speculated, will guarantee a “safe landing” for Sonthi after an elected government assumes power.

The Bangkok Post reports on a possible alternative party:

Gen Sonthi may stand for a seat in the House under the banner of Rak Chat (Love the Nation), a party to be formed by Orient Thai Airways executive Kachit Tappananont, or a political party to be formed by assistant army chief Gen Saprang Kalayanamitr, the source said.
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Sources revealed that Gen Sonthi also asked assistant army chief and CNS deputy secretary-general Gen Saprang Kalayanamitr to find political allies, along with financiers who can come up with the few billion baht needed to realise his political future.

COMMENT: Imagine Gen. Saprang being the leader or playing any role in any government. It would be a laugh a minute! The Bangkok Post reports more on the financing:

Gen Sonthi was lobbying for financial support from businessmen who were upset with Mr Thaksin’s administration.

It was estimated he would need two to three billion baht to fund his election campaign.

COMMENT: So after funding Gen. Sonthi to the tune of 2-3 billion baht, will these businessman expect some kind of pay off? Of course! So we had a coup to remove corrupt politicians so the coup leader could stand in an election and be financed by businessman? Let me guess, one of those businessmen will be Prachai of TPI fame. Now, if you thought Thaksin was a “nationalist”, just wait to see what these guys will want as their reward. Or will these people contribute 2-3 billion baht out of the goodness of their heart and not expect any return? Or will such a return be called “necessary” and not be subject to criticism as Thaksin is not involved?

It seems that Gen. Sonthi will try to stand in an electorate seat and not on the party list as the Bangkok Post reports:

The source said Gen Sonthi has set his sights on representing Lop Buri, which has a strong military presence and where he served much of his career as a soldier.

Gen Sonthi decided not to run in Bangkok because a lot of voters in the capital oppose the coup. Pathum Thani is his native province, but the number of Muslim voters there may not be enough to ensure him victory.

Lop Buri was the best choice because soldiers would certainly vote for a soldier, the source said.

So has Gen. Sonthi been doing his job as the head of the CNS ensuring that all security threats are being watched? No, of course not, he is in full campaign mode as The Nation reports:

In contrast to his denial over an intention to reign post-CNS Thailand, Sonthi is seen to be kicking off a campaign to become the next prime minister.

He has co-chaired Cabinet meetings with Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont for months, in a bid to learn his future job as prime minister.

Sonthi has travelled to provinces to convince local officials they will be treated better under his rule in exchange for their “cooperation” in cutting links with Thaksin and anti-CNS politicians.

On some weekends, Bangkok shoppers are surprised by Sonthi’s unexpected visits to Chatuchak or Banglampoo markets, which he says are to see how well his people live.

While keeping power-thirsty politicians guessing if he and other CNS leaders will cling to power, he recently led a campaign encouraging youth to help save the planet.

The Bangkok Post reports :

Gen Sonthi recently appointed Gen Panlop Pinmanee as his adviser in his capacity as the director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc). Gen Panlop is building a support base for Gen Sonthi in case he runs for a House seat in Lop Buri.

According to the source, Gen Sonthi has been preparing for the polls since late last year, using the offices of Isoc.

Isoc staff were sent to northern and northeastern provinces that were political strongholds of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party to break up its support. A campaign was launched to persuade politicians to defect from Thai Rak Thai and join military-backed parties and to educate grassroots people about mismanagement by the Thaksin administration.

COMMENT: And people wonder why CNS wants to give ISOC all this power, it is Gen. Sonthi’s campaign machine.

Nevertheless, there are even more parties clamoring to give Gen. Sonthi a position as The Nation reports:

It is rumoured that two leading political parties – the Democrats and Chat Thai – have reserved a seat for the Council for National Security chief if he decided to take the plunge into politics.
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Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban struck a contradictory note and said Sonthi had every right to run his Lower House campaign.

“It would be a good sign if Sonthi would turn himself into a politician because that is the way of democracy. We should appreciate him [if he did it that way]. He is welcome,” Suthep said.

“Every single person has the right to run in the election, no matter who they are – businessman, farmer, policeman or soldier. I haven’t talked about the matter with him. But, in general, the Army commander-in-chief, government officials or ordinary people are welcome here at the Democrat Party,” Suthep said.

COMMENT: Ahh! Suthep “land scam” Thaugsuban. I should really do a post about him. I was disappointed the Bangkok media didn’t cover his background into the lead-up to the party dissolution case. Suthep could politely be described as the Democrat Party’s bagman who is involved in numerous wheeling and dealing to finance the party. Some might also say he is also the dirty tricks political operative, but well I couldn’t quite possibly comment on that :)

With everyone trying to court Gen. Sonthi, Zeer summed up the situation with this brilliant cartoon a week or so ago:

975-5983

Source: Thai Rath

COMMENT: That is Gen. Sonthi on the tank about to get into a Democrat Party chair with Abhisit holding the chair out for him. In the background, all the other parties are trying to get him to join up.

Ok, back on topic a bit. The problem for Gen. Sonthi is that despite the criticisms that he and Gen. Surayud have faced, in the back of the mind of many people is the position that they are acting honestly and with good intentions. Gen. Sonthi entering politics at the next election would put a big dent (destroys?) into that theory as Thitinan has stated:

There are growing political sensitivities. He declared right after the coup that he does not intend to continue to maintain power after the election. This was nine months ago. So for him to run in the election and try to be Prime Minister may be a bit more than the Thai population can bear. It’s unpalatable to most people in Bangkok that now it would be too convenient for him to take power by force, come up with a constitution, retire from the army, run in politics, and become an elected Prime Minister. That would be too much to bear for most people I think.

COMMENT: People would start analyzing whether the whole coup and everything that has transpired has been done with the specific intent of returning the military and him personally to the forefront of power. The military would regain their role as guardians of the nation.

It is far from certain that Gen. Sonthi would remain in the background from long even if he didn’t run in the election. One very probable scenario is he could accept a Cabinet role in the next government. Remember to be a Cabinet Minister in Thailand, you don’t have to be an MP. He could become a Deputy Prime Minister or Defence Minister.

The referendum and the election will not end the political crisis and Gen. Sonthi entering politics within the next 12 months could start a new stage in the crisis.