Asian Correspondent Asia News

It may be weeks, months or possibly a few years away, but few are taking any chances. Puea Thai are certainly drumming up support with Thaksin’s various appearances and phone-ins, Abhisit was in Buriram and there are signs of an increasing social order campaign etc. Rarely, do any polls ask voters who will they vote for, but an ABAC Poll apparently did so as the Bangkok Post reported:

When asked which party they would vote if a general election takes place today, 44.6 per cent said they would vote for the Democrat party, 40.1 per cent for the opposition Puea Thai party and 15.3 percent for other parties.

BP: Can’t find the actual ABAC Poll, but other papers (e.g Prachachat) have also reported the same figures. This is not that different from the actual party list vote at the 2007 General Election:

Source: Original EC figures can be found in this large ZIP file with multiple spreadsheets – more readable version is in this slightly modified spreadsheet (percentages added) based on the EC figures.

BP: Of course, PPP did much better than the Democrats in the constituency vote in the 2007 General Election and in the end beat the Democrats (in numbers) by more than 60 MPs.

Sopon though sees the writing on the wall:

Is there an acceptable replacement if he should succumb to political defeat? A general election in the next few months would guarantee the return of the Thaksin crowd, with a simple majority or otherwise. Some of the coalition partners would switch camps if they have to choose between sweet deals and ruthless reprisals for their previous rejection of the disgraced former PM.

BP: Is a Puea Thai actually guaranteed a victory right now? Yes, in some parts of the Northeast, Puea Thai could put up a dead buffalo and they would still beat the other candidates (the same applies for the Democrats in virtually all of the South), but the same does not hold true for all of the country. Puea Thai suffer from a problem that many of their big names have been banned. Puea Thai don’t want an election now. They want the constitution amended and an amnesty for banned political executives.

To BP it is clear that the smaller parties (Chat Thai Pattana, Bhum Jai Thai etc) would suffer more than the Democrats if a general election was to be held in the next couple of months with Puea Thai being the beneficiary. Thailand appears to be me moving more towards a two party system all the time. In BP’s view, if an election was held next month (480 MPs), the results would be as follows. The number on the left is the prediction. The number on the right in brackets is the “base” or bare minimum:

Puea Thai 225 (200)
Democrats 175 (155)
Bhum Jai Thai 20 (12)
Chat Thai Pattana 20 (12)
Puea Paendin 15 (10)
PAD 10 (7)
Others 15 (10)

PAD
If PAD did not meet the threshold then all their seats would go to the Democrats. If on the other hand, there was a big scandal involving some Democrats which PAD were able to push leading to an early election then PAD could get 5-10 more seats.

Puea Thai
Conversely that big scandal involving the Democrats would also see Puea Thai’s numbers jump by around 5-10 MPs. The logic being certain voters who were with TRT in the past but moved to the Democrats as they were turned off by the corruption towards the end of the Thaksin govt and wanted the clean alternative of the Democrats would then likely move back to Puea Thai because the economic situation under TRT was better than now. Almost all of these would come from the Democrats and so Puea Thai also Puea Thai would then get up to 230 MPs.

Democrats vs Puea Thai
You may say the Democrats are doomed based on what Sopon writes or that the Democrats (or to be more precise Abhisit) are not doing that badly given that Abhisit and Thaksin are neck-and-neck in the latest ABAC opinion poll. BP comes down in the middle of this. Abhisit still is doing ok and he is a major reason why the Democrats will still do reasonably well. They are the credible alternative for most voters who don’t like Thaksin who are significant number.

Current make-up
For a rough estimate of the current make-up of parliament, see here.

Base/bare minimum
As you see from the “base” or bare minimum figures, around 400 MPs are already decided. It is difficult to see the parties going below these numbers based on the current situation. Most of the competition will be in the Central region, parts of Bangkok, lower North, deep South and lower Northeast. This is what BP calls for the “battle for the center” – not ideological, but more regional

In the “Center” there are a few provinces where one party is dominant (eg. Suphanburi), but many constituencies are highly contested and depending on a range of varying fortunes, either side (Democrats or Puea Thai) could win. It is also the area where competition with the third parties is greatest

Third parties
The third parties are slightly more difficult to judge as if there is any forward planning, you might get an amalgamation of some of the smaller parties, besides most of Bhum Jai Thai, into a new third party. They would likely get an extra 5 seats which you would take away from the Democrats.

BP: For BP, it is really all about PAD. PAD make it very, very difficult for the Democrats to form a government. Can PAD and Bhum Jai Thai really co-exist?

Actually, Sondhi L secretly wants the return of Puea Thai and to then be in opposition. Trying this balancing act of opposing Suthep, but supporting Abhisit is not easy. PAD are the perfect opposition party. Much easier to criticize the government if Puea Thai are in power (and a boon to media revenues to boot!). BP is also unsure whether the other political parties would be that keen to join in a coalition with PAD. If you take away the PAD from the equation (with the Democrats then the Democrats can form a government although the odds would still be with Puea Thai

This means you would then get a Puea Thai government. Look for Thaksin to crush Newin by taking around up 5-10 Bhum Jai Thai MPs but not those most closely connected to Newin (those closer to Somsak T). Chat Thai Pattana would be included (you think the eel would miss out?) and some of the smaller parties for up to 280 MPs to form a government.

For all of Newin’s talk about creating a third party to straddle both sides of politics, it is Chat Thai Pattana which is much more easily able to do so. Who hates Chat Thai Pattana? What controversial position has CTP taken which makes them politically toxic? Newin is hated by both the reds and the yellows.

Finally, you may wonder what the point of the above is if we don’t have an election today. Simple, the number of contested seats will be rather small at the next election. You will likely see a subtle focus through policies and proposed policies on trying to pick up the swing/marginal seats. Economically many of these areas have a higher number of middle class (although mostly lower middle class) than many other areas – see this post and you will see the percentage of people in poverty in the Central Region is much lower than the average. Now, in the next month or so BP will try to find out where those seats will be. The “battle for the center” is still relevant whether it is an election this month or next year.