2014 Election analysis – Part 1 : Turn-outBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 27, 2014 10:00AM UTC
BP has already blogged the regional breakdowns and the overall turnout of 47.72% earlier this month. Below is the breakdown by province:
NOTE: Valid = votes for a political party; Ignore the term “Central”.
Chart 1: Nationwide turn-out, Valid votes, Spoilt votes and Vote No
BP: Have been wondering to blog the above or not, but since have entered the information into Excel, decided for those who are interested they can at least read the information. Also, we are unlikely to get actual number of votes for parties until April, if at all, so there is no real point delaying until we can the actual vote for the party vote breakdown.
BP: Where Puea Thai and/or the third parties did well in 2011, the turn-out in 2014 was on average higher. This is hardly surprising, but actually did want to confirm this. You will see the provinces with the lowest difference are mainly in the North and the Northeast. For the top 25 provinces with the lowest difference in turn-out, Puea Thai and the third parties scored received at least 70% of the party vote in 2011 EXCEPT in Mae Hong Son (combined 55.45%) and Amnat Charoen (combined 59.52%). Don’t have any specific reason why.
Chart 3: Comparison between 2011 and 2014 turn-out : Sorted by highest difference + also showing Democrat party vote
BP: Again, it is where the the Democrats did well in 2011 where the biggest difference (i.e the great drop in turn-out) between 2011 and 2014 are. It is mainly Central provinces and Southern provinces.
Chonburi, but the Democrats did well there in 2007 and also in 2011, Puea Thai didn’t do well (29.32%) so this suggests the Democrats are likely to do well again the next time unless the local party, Palang Chon, can turn things around. Other outliers are Samut Sakhon and Bangkok. Bangkok makes sense because of the disruptions and perhaps this applies somewhat to other central provinces directly surrounding Bangkok such as Samut Sakhon…
NOTE: Will try to upload the spreadsheet once finished and all data is complete.