Thailand: Voter turnout and 2014 election predictionsBy Bangkok Pundit Feb 02, 2014 6:04AM UTC
Below are details from the 2006 election, 2007 referendum, 2007 election, and 2011 election:
NOTE: From a mixture of Wikipedia (2006 election and 2007 referendum) and old posts (2007 election and 2011 election). For Thai Rak Thai/PPP/Puea Thai, have listed the party-list vote numbers.
Below is the percentage of the party-list vote that Puea Thai received for the party vote in the 2011 election per province from highest to lowest (well as lowest as can go and include the graph on the page):
Below is the actual number of party-list votes for Puea Thai at the 2011 election vs BP’s prediction for the 2014 election:
1. On turn-out, am predicting almost complete disruption of voting in the South outside the Deep South, almost none in the North and the Northeast, a bit in the Central Regions, and widespread disruption in Bangkok. The key thing for Bangkok particularly is that many people just won’t go to vote because of fears over violence (just see last week) and/or concerns that they will be obstructed.
2. In the last week, the Democrats have shifted from an unclear position to not going to vote. Abhisit publicly stated on Facebook yesterday that he won’t vote. Others in the party have also stated this too. BP expects many Democrat voters and PDRC supporters won’t vote at all. This is mainly done in the effort to bring turn-out under 50% and attack the legitimacy of the government and electoral process.
3. The best base is not the 2006 election when you have an active campaign for a ‘vote no’, but the 2007 referendum where the turn-out was only 57%. This was 57% with no obstruction of voting and no violence.
4. Because of the reasons stated in 1, 2, and 3, BP expects turn-out to be around 48-53%. We should find out reasonably quickly the turn-out figures tomorrow after the election although remembering (remember advance voting and out-of-constituency voting is very incomplete) as well as for the 28 constituencies which will bring total numbers above 50%. While the EC will calculate the votes, they won’t announce any until the other voting has taken place (this being by-elections and advance voting), but BP would be surprised if some party-list vote details were not leaked.
5. For Puea Thai, BP thinks they will get similar numbers to 2007. In BP’s view this will be because of dissatisfaction over the government by many reds with the amnesty bill and being weak on issues important to them as well as the mismanagement over the rice scheme causing anger in many parts of the country where there are strong pockets of support for Puea Thai (although many places where the protests numbers are the strongest on this issue are not the strongest Puea Thai areas) as well as smaller numbers because of the lower number of votes cast (remember advance voting and out-of-constituency voting is very incomplete). Also, no real election campaign and no way to generate enthusiasm for the government which has been a key component of the pro-Thaksin government success in the past.
6. Expect spoilt ballots to be up to around 2 million
7. Other parties around 4 million.
8. Vote No will likely be around 6 million (this is predicated on quite low turn-out, higher turn-out will mean more anti-government voters who decided to vote and to “vote no”).
NOTE: One problem with the above is the complete lack of polling on the above issues.