Thai Rath‘s political analysis on page 3 on December 4 stated in regards to the Suthep and Yingluck negotiations mediated by Prayuth that he viewed that a dissolution was the best way out from the dead end and to resolve the problems for now (ที่สุดเลยก็ลากมาพบกันครึ่งทาง โดย “บิ๊กตู่” เห็นด้วยให้ยุบสภาผ่าทางตัน คลายวิกฤติเฉพาะหน้าก่อน)

Thai Rath‘s Sunday political analysis* of December 8 is entitled “พิสูจน์ตัวแปร ประชาชนตัดสิน” (Proving the variable : Letting the people decide):

Suthep’s problem is that he is no “out” now. There is not even blueprints for the People’s Assembly. He has invested so much in this stating he will quit politics. If it ends so easily then it is like a “fixed fight” [i.e. Suthep has somehow been paid to end it] but in accordance with democracy, the government is in a better position because they are the government from the election under the Constitution. However, the government is like a “crippled duck” and cannot govern properly. The loss from being a crippled duck is not just with Yingluck or this government, but also the entire country.

As PM, Yingluck needs to decide what to do and it is likely she will dissolve parliament but if parliament is dissolved now then lots of legislation and programs will be dropped including the 2 trillion baht infrastructure project. It will be like the government doesn’t have a major achievement. However, an election where the entire country can participate in a type of referendum which is better than both sides claiming the masses are behind them.

BP: The Democrat Party decided in a party meeting today that all MPs should resign. Yingluck has again offered the dissolution option today (which the protesters rejected) and a referendum option as well (which they also rejected), but the problem is now that while Abhisit welcomes a dissolution, he has not specifically said that the Democrats will participate (remembering the Democrats boycotted in 2006). Nevertheless, the time is coming for the government to do something because BP is very pessimistic on the outcome of the protests tomorrow and can see bloodshed with the Democrats going all in. It is whether the government does something tonight OR waits until the protests tomorrow….

*Has long been the most important political analysis in Thai politics…

UPDATE: As posted on twitter:

BP: (1) If the Democrats refuse, the government continues.

(2) If they accept, Yingluck dissolves parliament. If they change their mind and boycott, Puea Thai will win so it appears we are in the same situation, but Yingluck has won a mandate again. All this talk that the government has lost legitimacy is hard to maintain. If they don’t change their mind, Puea Thai will almost certainly win (despite the Amnesty Bill, the recent Democrat party “antics” will doom them to another election loss) and they won’t be able to persuasively argue with the result. The risk is that if they try for chaos/political vacuum, but they are doing this now with intensifying the protests to seize government buildings and with trying to provoke the authorities to respond with lethal force.

It is not ideal but in BP’s view it is better than a unilateral dissolution….