Poll of the Northeast shows drop in support for Puea Thai, no gains for DemocratsBy Bangkok Pundit Oct 14, 2013 10:00AM UTC
E-san poll is not a poll that BP has regularly blogged on and hence you may wonder how accurate are their polls. As noted in a post last year:
Two months before the 2011 election, they surveyed voters in all 20 provinces in the Northeast on which party people would vote for in the July 3, 2011 election. The result was Puea Thai, 63.9%; Democrats, 20.7%; and Bhum Jai Thai, 9.1%. The actual election results for the party vote for the Northeast was Puea Thai 68.2%, Democrats 14.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai 6.5%. Given the survey took place before Yingluck’s introduction (which helped PT), and PT’s strong election performance and the Democrats’s poor performance, the E-san poll appears to have a history – although that pre-election poll surveyed over 2,000 people whereas more recent polls have only surveyed just over 1,000 people each time.
The big advantage of the E-san poll compared with other polls that provide a regional breakdown is that the E-san poll surveys people in all 20 provinces whereas most other pollsters only survey a handful of provinces in each region which are not necessarily reflective of the entire region. This means regional breakdowns are not always accurate.
The latest Isan poll surveyed 1,319 people in all 20 provinces between September 28-October 3, 2013.
Q1 surveys the performance of the government on 6 aspects (ผลสำรวจการประเมินผลงานรัฐบาลใน 6 ด้าน). This is a pass or not pass grade (there is no ‘no opinion’). The figures below are those who give the government a pass:
Source: December 2011; January 2012 (here, here, and here); February and March 2012 (here and here); May 2012 (here); and June 2012 (PDF); August 2012; September-October 2012; November-December 2012; January-February 2013; March-April 2013; May-June 2013; and September-October 2013.*
BP: You can see the overall 64.4% who give the government a pass mark is the lowest by the government in the 12 surveys. The drop in those giving the government a pass mark is primarily because of the drop over social issues/crime/drugs and environment.
On the economic question, the government barely passes 50% getting 51.7%. This is not the lowest score, but BP views it is still below par and suggests continued problems for the government. Given the poor Q2 GDP figures and Thailand entering a technical recession – although year-on-year GDP growth for 2013 is still likely to be around 3.5%-4% – it will likely take some time before we see a improvement on the economic issue.
Q2 relates to the satisfaction with the role performed by the opposition in investigating the government (เมื่อถามถึงความพึงพอใจของการทาหน้าที่ตรวจสอบรัฐบาลของฝ่ายค้าน). The result is those who give a pass mark to the Opposition:
BP: This is not a question of whether voters are satisfied (as in would “support” or “vote for”) the Democrats, but whether they like the role/task of what the Opposition is doing. The Opposition includes the Democrats, but also some of the smaller opposition parties. While fewer in the Northeast gave a pass mark to the government, fewer also give a pass mark to the Opposition.
Q3 is if there was a new election, which party would you vote for (เมื่อถามความคิดเห็นว่าหากมีการเลือกตั้งครั้งใหม่คนอีสานจะเลือกพรรคการ เมืองใด)
NOTE: The actual election 2011 general election results for the party vote for the Northeast was Puea Thai 68.2%, Democrats 14.7%, and Bhum Jai Thai 6.5%.
BP: Puea Thai are down on the 68% they won at the 2011 election, but so are the Democrats. Undecideds have increased to more than one-third of the electorate. Then, you have 8.9% who won’t vote for anyone. It is hard to say who the undecideds will vote for, but Puea Thai will need to win around 50% of them back to replicate their 2011 general election result.
For the Dems, they have not recorded an increase in support.
As you will see this is not a link to the E-san poll Web site. Unfortunately, they haven’t updated their Web site, but their Facebook page links to this article about the poll.